GFS Said What?

[Dean4Storms]

From Mobile NWS.....


FXUS64 KMOB 060806
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
304 AM CDT THU JUL 6 2006

.SYNOPSIS...FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST...FIRST ITEM TO DEAL WITH IN THE
FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST IS THE DANCE OF SEVERAL UPPER
SYSTEMS...ONE OVER THE TX GULF COAST...ANOTHER OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FL PENINSULA...AND ANOTHER SOUTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY. THIS LAST
UPPER LOW IS PROVIDING THE SWING POINT FOR A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM DIVING
SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...DIGGING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND GULF OF MEX. HELPING TO SHARPEN THE TROUGH IS AN
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NM/TX/MX...WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH
OVER THE US/CA ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AND EAST COAST HAS KEPT A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN US...WITH THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY AND TX GULF COAST REPORTING PRECIP H20 VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2".
EVEN THE CENTER OF THE DRY AIRMASS (CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GA/SC
COASTAL AREA) HAS MOISTENED UP TO VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.5". THIS IS
SOUTH OF A FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO N-RN TX.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...JUST AS EXPECTED THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS BREAKING DOWN AS A WEAK
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS DEEPENING UPPER TROF OVER
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT (AND INTO FRIDAY). WITH THIS...STILL LOOKING FOR A
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION. SAW PRETTY
GOOD COVERAGE OVER WESTERN HALF OF FCST AREA YESTERDAY...AND EXPECT
MORE OF THE SAME TODAY...BUT ALSO EXPANDING EAST ACROSS REST OF THE
AREA AS WELL. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR TODAY...
WITH THE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS THE SFC
FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH. WITH THE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER...LOOK FOR
COOLER DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER AND PCPN EXPECTED. /12

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS PROGNOSTICATING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPINGING UPON THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...SHOVING IT
EAST TO OVER TX/OK BY LATE SATURDAY...AND HELPING TO MOVE EASTERN
TROUGH TO OVER THE EAST COAST AND FILLING IT BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH HELPS TO
SEND A FRONT TOWARDS THE GULF COAST...STALLING IT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE
COAST (EITHER ONSHORE LIKE THE ETA IS SAYING OF SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE
LIKE THE GFS). GFS IS ADVERTISING A BOMB DEVELOPING OVER AL/NW FL
COASTAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT FILLING IT IN BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A CASE OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...
THOUGH...SO AM TENDING TO DISCOUNT THE PETICULARS OF THE GFS IN THIS
TIME FRAME...TEMP AND WIND WISE...THOUGH WITH A DRIER AIRMASS
BEHIND...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS FOR POPS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

UPPER PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AND MODE ZONAL...WITH LITTLE
WIGGLES BREAKING UP THE FLOW BY SUNDAY MORN. ABUNDANT ENERGY FLOWING
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS REVERSES THIS...WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
PLAINS AS TROUGH DIG OVER THE EAST AND WEST COASTS. LOW LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BECOME CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST UNDER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP
INCREASING THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK AS THE MOISTURE LEVELS
INCREASE.

&&

.MARINE...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL GENERALLY PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH MOST OF THE FCST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL MOVE INTO OUR MARINE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 00Z THU GFS QUICKLY DEVELOPS A FAIRLY
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER OUR MARINE AREA BY
18Z FRI...WITH STRONG SCA LEVEL WINDS. THIS SCENARIO HAS NOT BEEN
PROGGED BY THE GFS UNTIL THIS MODEL RUN...AND OTHER MODELS SUCH AS
NAM AND UKMET (AND EVEN THE OLD NGM) DO NOT INDICATE THIS RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS. WITH PCPN BULLS-EYE OVER THE MARINE AREA NOTED IN THE
GFS...BELIEVE THAT SOLUTION TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK...AND FOR NOW WILL NOT BITE OFF ON THIS DEVELOPMENT. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE NAM/UKMET/NGM SOLUTIONS...WHICH ARE NOT TOO
DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS MARINE FCST EXPECTATIONS...CALLING FOR
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MARINE
AREA. WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS WELL BELOW SCEC/SCA LEVELS THROUGH
FCST PERIOD. /12



They believe it is convective feedback and probably likely, but the afternoon Radar out of Mobile does show hints of a circulation. Could this be the eventual East Coast Low?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[skysummit]

LOL...a Bomb??? Shouldn't we contact Homeland Security?

[skysummit]

From New Orleans NWS....

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER FLORIDA IS NOW
EMERGING INTO THE EAST GULF NEAR FORT MYERS. UPPER AIR ANALYSES
SHOW A STACKED DEEP LAYERED CIRCULATION THAT APPEARS TO BE
TRANSLATING DOWNWARD WITH SUBTLE SURFACE REFLECTIONS IN THE
SURFACE LAND AND BUOY WINDFIELD. PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH AND
TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO LIFT
THIS FEATURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN TIME. MODELS SUGGEST A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DISSIPATING FRONT
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NOT PUTTING A WHOLE LOT OF STOCK IN THIS SCENARIO OCCURRING
BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS AS A FRONT REACHING
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS AN ANOMALY FOR JULY.

[Dean4Storms]

LOL...a Bomb??? Shouldn't we contact Homeland Security?

Maybe the GFS picked up the F-15's out of Eglin going out there on bomb practice runs, they do it all the time. Matter of fact, weekend before last we were about 22 miles out fishing on my boat when the Coast Guard informed us over the VHF that they were about to start live fire exercises, sure enough 15 minutes later we were watching the show just to our east.

[Dean4Storms]

I posted this earlier this week.........


http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=86410

[Ivanhater]

starting to get heavy rain in Pensacola, almost forgot what it was like

[Dean4Storms]

starting to get heavy rain in Pensacola, almost forgot what it was like

Still waiting over here. Had only about a half inch the past two months.

My Weather Station site for anyone interested........


http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KFLMIRAM6

[bigmoney755]

GFS IS ADVERTISING A BOMB

[Ivanhater]

starting to get heavy rain in Pensacola, almost forgot what it was like

Still waiting over here. Had only about a half inch the past two months.

My Weather Station site for anyone interested........


http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KFLMIRAM6

It's coming my friend, bout time. we need it

[Dean4Storms]

GFS IS ADVERTISING A BOMB

[White Cap]

LOL...a Bomb??? Shouldn't we contact Homeland Security?

Could it be a missle from N. Korea?

[Brent]

GFS IS ADVERTISING A BOMB

Quick! We have to launch a pre-emptive attack!

[Dean4Storms]

After using that word I guess I'm being listened too by SIGINT!!

[SouthFloridawx]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... 06/48.html

UKMET showing something over the southeast and going out into the Atlantic. The other models have been developing a cold core low off the east coast. I am wondering if the GFS low you are talking about is the one that could develope into a cold core low and move up the coast?

[SouthFloridawx]

here it is... the 6Z gfs

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 06/66.html

Still waiting for the 12Z analysis.

[mvtrucking]

I posted this earlier this week.........


http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=86410

I knew I had read a post concerning this. Glad of the reminder Dean. You may of nailed this one.

[canegrl04]

GFS Advertising a bomb:


Slick designed,powerful explosive gauranteed to give you more bang for your buck!

[Cookiely]

Bomb as in firecracker.

[N2DaTropics]

From Mobile NWS.....


FXUS64 KMOB 060806
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
304 AM CDT THU JUL 6 2006

.SYNOPSIS...FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST...FIRST ITEM TO DEAL WITH IN THE
FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST IS THE DANCE OF SEVERAL UPPER
SYSTEMS...ONE OVER THE TX GULF COAST...ANOTHER OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FL PENINSULA...AND ANOTHER SOUTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY. THIS LAST
UPPER LOW IS PROVIDING THE SWING POINT FOR A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM DIVING
SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...DIGGING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND GULF OF MEX. HELPING TO SHARPEN THE TROUGH IS AN
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NM/TX/MX...WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH
OVER THE US/CA ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AND EAST COAST HAS KEPT A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN US...WITH THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY AND TX GULF COAST REPORTING PRECIP H20 VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2".
EVEN THE CENTER OF THE DRY AIRMASS (CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GA/SC
COASTAL AREA) HAS MOISTENED UP TO VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.5". THIS IS
SOUTH OF A FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO N-RN TX.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...JUST AS EXPECTED THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS BREAKING DOWN AS A WEAK
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS DEEPENING UPPER TROF OVER
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT (AND INTO FRIDAY). WITH THIS...STILL LOOKING FOR A
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION. SAW PRETTY
GOOD COVERAGE OVER WESTERN HALF OF FCST AREA YESTERDAY...AND EXPECT
MORE OF THE SAME TODAY...BUT ALSO EXPANDING EAST ACROSS REST OF THE
AREA AS WELL. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR TODAY...
WITH THE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS THE SFC
FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH. WITH THE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER...LOOK FOR
COOLER DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER AND PCPN EXPECTED. /12

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS PROGNOSTICATING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPINGING UPON THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...SHOVING IT
EAST TO OVER TX/OK BY LATE SATURDAY...AND HELPING TO MOVE EASTERN
TROUGH TO OVER THE EAST COAST AND FILLING IT BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH HELPS TO
SEND A FRONT TOWARDS THE GULF COAST...STALLING IT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE
COAST (EITHER ONSHORE LIKE THE ETA IS SAYING OF SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE
LIKE THE GFS). GFS IS ADVERTISING A BOMB DEVELOPING OVER AL/NW FL
COASTAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT FILLING IT IN BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A CASE OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...
THOUGH...SO AM TENDING TO DISCOUNT THE PETICULARS OF THE GFS IN THIS
TIME FRAME...TEMP AND WIND WISE...THOUGH WITH A DRIER AIRMASS
BEHIND...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS FOR POPS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

UPPER PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AND MODE ZONAL...WITH LITTLE
WIGGLES BREAKING UP THE FLOW BY SUNDAY MORN. ABUNDANT ENERGY FLOWING
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS REVERSES THIS...WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
PLAINS AS TROUGH DIG OVER THE EAST AND WEST COASTS. LOW LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BECOME CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST UNDER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP
INCREASING THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK AS THE MOISTURE LEVELS
INCREASE.

&&

.MARINE...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL GENERALLY PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH MOST OF THE FCST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL MOVE INTO OUR MARINE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 00Z THU GFS QUICKLY DEVELOPS A FAIRLY
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER OUR MARINE AREA BY
18Z FRI...WITH STRONG SCA LEVEL WINDS. THIS SCENARIO HAS NOT BEEN
PROGGED BY THE GFS UNTIL THIS MODEL RUN...AND OTHER MODELS SUCH AS
NAM AND UKMET (AND EVEN THE OLD NGM) DO NOT INDICATE THIS RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS. WITH PCPN BULLS-EYE OVER THE MARINE AREA NOTED IN THE
GFS...BELIEVE THAT SOLUTION TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK...AND FOR NOW WILL NOT BITE OFF ON THIS DEVELOPMENT. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE NAM/UKMET/NGM SOLUTIONS...WHICH ARE NOT TOO
DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS MARINE FCST EXPECTATIONS...CALLING FOR
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MARINE
AREA. WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS WELL BELOW SCEC/SCA LEVELS THROUGH
FCST PERIOD. /12

Noticing that also, looks like a very nice burst of convection forming right along the AL/FL Border and out into the GOM...while I don't see anything to worry about it does look like it might be a decent rain producer for us here in the Panhandle...water tables are seriously low and the rivers and creeks are so low that saltwater is starting to flow into them creating brackish water...I've been doing rain dances and washing my car in hopes of coaxing some precip to fall but so far all I've got to show for it is some sore feet and very clean car...

They believe it is convective feedback and probably likely, but the afternoon Radar out of Mobile does show hints of a circulation. Could this be the eventual East Coast Low?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[brunota2003]

It was actually a dude...it blew up in mid-air...but was so big I could capture this elusive photo of the GFS Bomb...
http://www.trackahurricane.com/blog/ima ... _8_050.jpg