Special tropical disturbance statement by weathercentral S2K

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 10, 2003 2:37 pm

This statement is made by the weathercentral forecast center of storm2k and it is not an official statement from NHC.

The tropical disturbance located around 1300 miles east of the lesser antilles has becomed better organized this afternoon.Banding features are appearing mainly to the north of the system and convection is concentrating very close to the low center.It is moving westwestnorthwest around 10-20 mph.This disturbance before it meets the hostil enviroment from an upper trough and marginal sst's will have a chance to be a tropical depression later tonight or tommorow morning.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster

jabber · #2 Postby **jabber** » Tue Jun 10, 2003 3:45 pm

I agree, I think it will be short lived but think if this trend continue, the NHC will upgrade this evening.

Rainband · #3 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Jun 10, 2003 3:56 pm

According to Dr Steve Lyons..It will become a depression and maybe even a tropical storm..He also said that there may have been more early storms in this area than we thought..considering satellite surveillence didn't begin till the 60's :o :wink:

Lindaloo · #4 Postby **Lindaloo** » Tue Jun 10, 2003 4:19 pm

Looks like this one is further south than normal storms this time of year right?

Rainband · #5 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Jun 10, 2003 4:27 pm

Yes it is very far south and this will help it maintain it's intensity until it encounters the hostile enviornment to the east! :wink:

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 10, 2003 4:55 pm

Agree on if it mantains south it will survive.

#7 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Jun 10, 2003 6:48 pm

This system has been a real trooper!! After looking rather ragged yesterday afternoon and most of last night it began getting it's act together early this am and has concentrated it's convection around the center of circulation and developed decent outflow to it's north. Winds near the center are in the 23-28 knot range. One reason I believe this system has survived is that the Ull to the NW did pull a little bit north allowing more moist air to move in west of the system. Also shear has lessened in the area immediately W of the system and has also pulled a little N to above 10N thanks to the ULL backing off. Since it has stayed further south than it appeared that it was going to it has also enjoyed warm water to feed it's need for warmth. Two models do close this system off for about 24-36 hours before it hits the very hostile environment west of it nearer the Islands. For these reasons I do feel that Tropical Storm Bill, although probably minimal and short lived is in his formation stages and very well could already be a TD.

As usual the Storm2k forecast team will be keeping a close eye on this developing situation and update it as necessary.

Stormsfury · #8 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Jun 10, 2003 6:52 pm

2003 being the "Year of the Broken Records and Firsts" just keeps rollin', rollin', rollin' ... and likely witnessing another first here ...

I expect Tropical Depression #2 to be formally named tonight at 11 pm EDT ... barring a total collapse of the convection ...

weatherlover427 · #9 Postby **weatherlover427** » Tue Jun 10, 2003 7:48 pm

It sounds good ny the NHC. I think it is very close too.

Special tropical disturbance statement by weathercentral S2K

Special tropical disturbance statement by weathercentral S2K

Who is online