94L Invest Comments Thread #2

[Dean4Storms]

The TW now coming into the eastern GOM will meet up with this trough in the western Gulf come tomorrow adding convective energy. With shear expected to lessen we could get a quick developer. But I'd give it a 5% chance if that much at this point.

[skysummit]

The TW now coming into the eastern GOM will meet up with this trough in the western Gulf come tomorrow adding convective energy. With shear expected to lessen we could get a quick developer. But I'd give it a 5% chance if that much at this point.

I was just thinking the same thing...and with the normal pops that usually fire on the Yucatan and move into the BoC, that may also add energy. I also give it a very low chance at this point.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I like Jeff's discussion, except I don't think (based on radar and sat. trends) that this is moving into the southern TX/NE Mexico region. If anything, the latest trends and models are showing a more northward path and landfall near central TX (thus the reason the NWS in Houston is talking about very heavy rains in the SW zones). Either way though...HEAVY rains are expected along the entire TX coast with the potential main "hot spots" being the central TX coast and SE TX.

[KatDaddy]

I agree the TW moving through the EGOM and Yucatan will be additional energy which may allow some developement.

[Extremeweatherguy]

My call on this right now is for it to move inland along the central TX coast at an intensity level somewhere between a strong disturbance and a 50mph TS.

BTW, here is a good look at what is coming to Houston:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[skysummit]

For the meantime, I'm really not that concerned with the current convection in the western gulf. What I do have my eye on though is shown below. This energy is currently heading northwest and will enter the BoC tonight or tomorrow. For some reason, I'm getting an ominous feeling about that area.

[Extremeweatherguy]

For the meantime, I'm really not that concerned with the current convection in the western gulf. What I do have my eye on though is shown below. This energy is currently heading northwest and will enter the BoC tonight or tomorrow. For some reason, I'm getting an ominous feeling about that area.

well that would suck to have this first system move through TX dropping TONS of rain only to have it be followed by an actual tropical system that drops TONS more.

[Stratosphere747]

For the Pros...

Could the ULL in West Texas be the deciding factor on whatever is in the Gulf having a chance to develop?

Movement in either direction would either keep enough shear over the system, or possibly ventilating it?

[Stormcenter]

There is alot going on down there and I wouldn't just write it off as a rain event only just yet.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[Opal storm]

For the meantime, I'm really not that concerned with the current convection in the western gulf. What I do have my eye on though is shown below. This energy is currently heading northwest and will enter the BoC tonight or tomorrow. For some reason, I'm getting an ominous feeling about that area.

well that would suck to have this first system move through TX dropping TONS of rain only to have it be followed by an actual tropical system that drops TONS more.

This sytem will probably not go to Texas but instead just go due west into Mexico.

[Opal storm]

I seriously don't see how any tropical formation can come out of any of this.There have been some nice blobs blow up but there moving towards land,no time to get organized and develop into anything.

[Portastorm]

Extreme, I'm surprised you haven't said anything about JB's column this morning!

JB seems to think there's still a chance that the Western Gulf system could still wind up some before landfall. Also, I try to notice trends. The trend from the NHC has been:

Last night at 10:30 p.m. -- no mention
This morning at 5:30 a.m. -- mentioned but no development
This morning at 11:30 a.m. -- mentioned with possible development after today

[Extremeweatherguy]

Extreme, I'm surprised you haven't said anything about JB's column this morning!

JB seems to think there's still a chance that the Western Gulf system could still wind up some before landfall. Also, I try to notice trends. The trend from the NHC has been:

Last night at 10:30 p.m. -- no mention
This morning at 5:30 a.m. -- mentioned but no development
This morning at 11:30 a.m. -- mentioned with possible development after today

I did mention it, but soon after the new TWO made it fall back a page. Here is my quote from page 11:

JB's morning post said that he is still worried about some close (to TX) last minute development of this system later tonight or tomorrow as it is coming ashore. He said he will post more on this later, but that a HEAVY rain situation is a definite. One thing to keep in mind though is that even if this did become a TD or weak TS it would make little difference. Rain is the main factor either way. The only real difference would be a few breezy periods (especially along the coast) if it did develop.

It is interesting for sure.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It continues to look better and better. Seems like the first signs of a possible spin/banding may be showing on the visible loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[no advance]

I see iit. It is not moving too much. Has a chance.

[Extremeweatherguy]

LATEST FROM JB:

-He thinks this has a decent chance of becoming a TS before landfall (similar to Allison or Dean).

-Bouy south of Brownsville had winds turn to the S with gusts of 35mph.

-Bouys further north have E and NE winds.

-GFS is showing mid-level vort max (10K-15K feet), working down to 3-5K feet by tomorrow morning.

-TS force winds would likely be to the east of the center (if a TS).

-Heavy rains in the order of 10" can be expected in parts of TX east of I-35.


**LOOKS INTERESTING FOR SURE!!!**

BTW: when I say "decent chance" that means that I think the tone of his post showed he thought there was at least a 25% chance of development.

[KatDaddy]

It does look much better on satellite this morning but pressures are still high.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looking at the radar there seems to be a circulation well SSE of Victoria, TX heading N or NNW. This could be a developing LLC. If it is, then the "landfall" of this system will likely be near Matagorda Bay. However, most of the convection and TS force winds would be pushed up to between Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay. Here is the loop:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[TampaFl]

LATEST FROM JB:

[i]-He thinks this has a decent chance of becoming a TS before landfall (similar to Allison or Dean).

**LOOKS INTERESTING FOR SURE!!!**

JB did not say this has a decent chance of becoming a TS before landfall. Quoting JB he said " fear is with outflow established now and the mischief one can get near the Texas coast, that a system can develop and have tropical storm force winds to the east of a center that is open to the west. In some respects, the genesis of such an event would resemble most closely an Allison or Dean, the latter being a 1995 storm on the upper Texas coast' end of quote..

Just want to make it clear on what JB is saying about this system.


Robert

[Extremeweatherguy]

LATEST FROM JB:

[i]-He thinks this has a decent chance of becoming a TS before landfall (similar to Allison or Dean).

**LOOKS INTERESTING FOR SURE!!!**

JB did not say this has a decent chance of becoming a TS before landfall. Quoting JB he said " fear is with outflow established now and the mischief one can get near the Texas coast, that a system can develop and have tropical storm force winds to the east of a center that is open to the west. In some respects, the genesis of such an event would resemble most closely an Allison or Dean, the latter being a 1995 storm on the upper Texas coast' end of quote..

Just want to make it clear on what JB is saying about this system.


Robert

that would equal a "decent chance". I am trying to give what he is saying in a shorter space and w.o. directly quoting everything. His overall post this morning showed that it seems this system has a decent chance to him.

BTW, my definition of decent chance is 25% or better.