Daily tropical updates and advisories

#41 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jun 08, 2003 7:26 pm

Tropical update=8:30 PM EDT June 8 2003

The only area that has some interest is in the far eastern atlantic where there is a strong tropical wave with a 1010 mb low with it.Conditions do no favor this system to develop as shear is too strong and water temperatures are marginal to support development.The wave is moving westward between 10-20 kts and the storm2k forecasters are watching this wave although we dont expect development.

In the entire atlantic basin no tropical development is expected thru tuesday.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster

#42 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 09, 2003 6:07 am

Tropical update=7:00 AM EDT June 9 2003

The only area that has some interest this morning is in the far eastern atlantic where a tropical wave is moving westward with a well defined 1011 surface low around 8n.No tropical development is expected as conditions in that part of the atlantic are not favorable but neverless the storm2k forecasters are watching this wave as it moves west 10-15 kts.

Apart from this tropical wave at the far eastern atlantic the atlantic basin is tranquil and tropical storm formation is not expected thru tuesday.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster

#43 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 09, 2003 10:01 am

Tropical update=11:00 AM EDT June 9 2003

The most interesting feature in the atlantic basin is a tropical wave with a surface low in the eastern atlantic.It has becomed a little better organized this morning as convection has increased near the low at around 8n.Also QuickScat shows winds of 20kts near the low center to the south of it.But conditions are not favorable for development as the system will enter an area of shear and that will not let it develop.But here at storm2k the forecasters are watching it and any new information about this system will be provided here.

The storm2k forecasters dont expect development from this system or at any part of the atlantic basin thru tuesday.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster

#44 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 09, 2003 2:19 pm

Special Tropical update=3:15 PM EDT June 9 2003

The tropical wave in the far eastern atlantic with a surface low is on the virge to be a tropical depression as it has continued to organize as it moves westward between 10-20 kts.Convection is concentrated near the low center and some banding is noted to the north and south of the center.Winds in the range of 20-25 kts haved been seen in quickscat data mainly south of the center.Shear values are higher west of the system near 40w and this factor will be the key for this system to develop or not.If it bypass that area of shear then the system may have a chance to develop as waters west of 50w are warmer compared with the waters in the east and central tropical atlantic that are marginal.Storm2k forecasters will monitor this disturbance and any new information we will have it here updated.

Elsewhere in the atlantic basin tropical storm formation is not expected thru tuesday.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster

Rainband · #45 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jun 09, 2003 2:24 pm

Thanks cyc!!! Something to watch even if for only a short time.. :wink:

#46 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 09, 2003 8:06 pm

Special tropical update=9:00 PM EDT June 9 2003

The tropical disturbance in the eastern atlantic has not organized more and in fact it has lost convection since this afternoon.The low center is elongated northeast to southwest and that is not good for development.There is an area of shear ahead of the system where an upper trough is located and if that trough doesn't lift north then it will not let the disturbance develop and be the end of it.But it well survive if it stays below 10n where the shear is not as strong and the water temperatures are warmer but the window for development is closing rapidly.The storm2k forecasters are monitering this system and any new information will be provided in this tropical update thread.

Elsewhere in the atlantic basin no tropical development is expected thru wednsday.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster

#47 Postby **wx247** » Mon Jun 09, 2003 9:07 pm

Thanks for the update!

#48 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Jun 10, 2003 1:09 am

Special tropical update=1:00 AM CDT June 10 2003

The tropical disturbance in the eastern Atlantic continues to be less organized than it was earlier today and the low center continues to be elongated northeast to southwest which will continue inhibiting development. The system continues to travel just N of W and is nearing the area of shear ahead of the system where an upper trough is located. This trough hasn't lifted north and unless it moves away quickly this disturbance will not develop any further. The sst's it is moving into are also on the verge of being too cool for development. Shear to the West of the system is definitely affecting it's ability to develop and will only get worse as it progresses West. The window for development seems to have closed. However, the Storm2k forecasters will continue monitoring this system and any new information will be provided in this tropical update thread.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin no tropical development is expected thru Wednesday.

David Van Bergen(vbhoutex)-Storm2k forecaster

#49 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 10, 2003 6:03 am

Special tropical update=7:00 AM EDT June 10 2003

The tropical disturbance located SW of the cape verde islands has gained convection overnight near the low center.However the system is entering as it moves west 10-15 kts an area of more shear as an upper trough is in the mid atlantic.This system would have a little window to develop if it stays south of the upper trough but it will be a very close call.The storm2k forecasters will continue to monitor this system and any new information will be provided in this tropical update thread.

Elsewhere in the atlantic basin tropical storm formation is not expected thru wendsday.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster

mf_dolphin · #50 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Tue Jun 10, 2003 6:13 am

Looks like the NHC still holds some hope on the system but it's looking pretty ragged this morning.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 100923
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2003

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...LOCATED
ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...CONTINUES
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/COBB

Tip · #51 Postby **Tip** » Tue Jun 10, 2003 7:23 am

I disagree latest vis sat pic out of Dundee (12Z) shows increased banding from yesterday.

#52 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 10, 2003 9:59 am

Special tropical update=11:00 AM EDT June 10 2003

No big changes from the previous update on the tropical disturbance. Convection is near the center still hanging on and there is a fair outflow to the north of the system but restricted to the south.Shear values increase west of the system between 20-30 kts and that factor will determine if the system will survive.It is still possible that a tropical depression may form but the chances are not that high.The storm2k forecasters will monitor the wave/low and further information will be available here.

Elsewhere in the atlantic basin tropical storm formation is not expected thru thursday.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster

Stormsfury · #53 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Jun 10, 2003 10:02 am

In addition to Cycloneye's post - look at 23ºN, and 42ºW where the ULL is and where is has gone in the last 12 hours ... nowhere ... A high over Bermuda is re-establishing itself and hence, putting on the brakes to the DRY ULL there...if anything, look for that ULL to be shunted a little southward
I watched the water vapor loops from 10:00 pm last night until 1 am and from 8:00 am this morning until now ... I see no change from that ... even worse, the tropical low itself to the south of it, is being sheared from the EAST.

In fact, latest analysis already as shown the low as already opened ...
GFS 00z

NOGAPS

And both the GFS/NOGAPS model loops available at this site do not indicate anything is going to close off ... the window of opportunity is closing rapidly ... and simply put, climatology, marginal SST's, and increasingly hostile conditions will soon put an end to the speculation.

SF

#54 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Jun 10, 2003 10:37 am

Agree fully SF!

Unless some miracle of nature occurrs and this system takes a dive sw I see no way it will survive. It is making a valiant effort with the convection once again concentrating near the center of the low. But between the dry air ahead of it, the ULL to the NW and shear to the W which is heading into the 30-50 knot range, I do not see it surviving any longer than 24 hrs. even though NHC is obviously holding out hope or sees something we do not that would help the system survive.

#55 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 10, 2003 2:41 pm

Tropical update=3:45 Pm EDT June 10 2003

For details of tropical disturbance see the special statement.

Elsewhere in the atlantic basin all is quiet and no tropical formation is expected thru thursday.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster

Tip · #56 Postby **Tip** » Tue Jun 10, 2003 3:27 pm

IR loop definitely shows that the cloud tops are getting progressively colder, more symetrical and banding is forming on the southern side of the storm. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Rainband · #57 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Jun 10, 2003 3:58 pm

Looking better and better IMHO!! :wink:

Stormsfury · #58 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Jun 10, 2003 6:48 pm

Special Update: Issued at 8:00 pm EDT ...

Despite the environment, which is only neutral at best, the convection has flared up and is becoming more symmetrical in appearance ... furthermore, the SST's are marginal, climatology, and drier air to the north and west of it...the system continues in the last few hours to be becoming rapidly better organized and might be taking advantage of it's window of opportunity ...

Despite no model stating the such, the tropical disturbance has the potential and probability to be upgraded to Tropical Depression #2, possibly tonight at 11 pm EDT ...

Based on Satellite imagery, looks like I busted on this one big time ...

#59 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 10, 2003 9:48 pm

Tropical update=11:00 PM EDT June 10 2003

Advisories are being issued on tropical depression #2 see advisorie thread.

Elsewhere in the atlantic basin tropical storm is not expected thru thursday.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster

ColdFront77 · #60 Postby **ColdFront77** » Tue Jun 10, 2003 10:28 pm

Wow, this system looks impressive for its geographic location and so very early in the season in this portion of the Atlantic Basin. 8-)

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