94L Invest Comments Thread #2

[Yankeegirl]

Still going to San Antonio on Tuesday... How do you think the weather is going to be there? We will be there for a few days...

[Opal storm]

Still going to San Antonio on Tuesday... How do you think the weather is going to be there? We will be there for a few days...

Here's the nws forecast. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... X&site=EWX

[Swimdude]

Let me begin an argu... Erm, discussion.

I believe 94L is looking better tonight than any other time prior. Observe the latest infrared images. Will it develop? I doubt it. However, I'm awaiting the downpour here in Houston nevertheless.

[Thunder44]

Surface pressures still look high in this area. But we will see later this morning how this cluster of storms further develops, if at all.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its just a blob of convection being formed from the eastern side of a upper level low pressure area. In which the air rises upwards on the east and southeastern side of upper level lows(Also deep level shear to the north of it). So no chance for development.

[Aquawind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020920
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SITUATED OVER THE
EXTREME WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO
NORTHWARD TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING COULD
OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TODAY...AND GRADUALLY
SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND AREA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

OTHERWISE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[tailgater]

A little spin SE of Brownsville
http://www.srh.weather.gov/ridge/radar. ... 1&loop=yes

[hriverajr]

Tailgater. I noticed that...not that it is going to come to anything. but I did notice as well.

Hector

[wxman57]

Tailgater. I noticed that...not that it is going to come to anything. but I did notice as well.

Hector

I don't see anything there. And at that distance from Brownsville, the radar beam is around 20,000 feet above the water. It's easy for the eye to be tricked into seeing a circulation with the changing colors and development/dissipation of echoes. When there really is a circulation with one of these systems, we'll be able to clearly discern it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well the NHC does seem to be watching the area just off of TX:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020920
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SITUATED OVER THE
EXTREME WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO
NORTHWARD TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING COULD
OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TODAY...AND GRADUALLY
SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND AREA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

OTHERWISE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[wxman57]

Well the NHC does seem to be watching the area just off of TX:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020920
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SITUATED OVER THE
EXTREME WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO
NORTHWARD TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING COULD
OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TODAY...AND GRADUALLY
SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND AREA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

OTHERWISE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Of course they're "watching it", but not for tropical development. They're concerned about heavy rain over Mexico and Texas. They're letting the local NWS offices handle it. If we're lucky, we won't see another named storm until August. Take a month off from watching for those elusive swirls.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well the NHC does seem to be watching the area just off of TX:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020920
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SITUATED OVER THE
EXTREME WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO
NORTHWARD TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING COULD
OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TODAY...AND GRADUALLY
SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND AREA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

OTHERWISE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Of course they're "watching it", but not for tropical development. They're concerned about heavy rain over Mexico and Texas. They're letting the local NWS offices handle it. If we're lucky, we won't see another named storm until August. Take a month off from watching for those elusive swirls.

well it does say "otherwise" tropical storm formation is not expected through Monday, but I guess that is trying to read into it too much. A break does sound nice though, but I doubt I could ever go that long without watching the tropics (especially since a storm will probably form in July). I guess for now it is on to watching the rain threat un-fold; at least until another "swirl" catches my eye.

[Thunder44]

From looking at surface obs and satellite imagery. It's doesn't seem to be developing now, but thunderstorms have persisted and become more concentrated over the NE Gulf from last night. I've noticed that the recon schedule for tomorrow hasn't come out yet.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB's morning post said that he is still worried about some close (to TX) last minute development of this system later tonight or tomorrow as it is coming ashore. He said he will post more on this later, but that a HEAVY rain situation is a definite. One thing to keep in mind though is that even if this did become a TD or weak TS it would make little difference. Rain is the main factor either way. The only real difference would be a few breezy periods (especially along the coast) if it did develop.

[Thunder44]

620
ABNT20 KNHC 021510
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...THESE WINDS COULD BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH LINGERS IN THE WESTERN GULF. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE...AS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Extremeweatherguy]

620
ABNT20 KNHC 021510
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...THESE WINDS COULD BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH LINGERS IN THE WESTERN GULF. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE...AS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

ok guys, by the look of this TWO I would say the chance of development is BACK ON!

[KatDaddy]

This has the potential to be quite a flood event especially should something tropical actually try to form in the WGOM during the next few days. Regardless a large amount of rain is going to fall across SE TX beginning shortly.

[teal61]

While some don't agree, there does seem to be some hint of rotation to the SE of Brownsville as was posted here earlier today. However a check of the pressures around Brownsville show they are still pretty high. I haven't had a chance to look at them over the last 24 hours to see if they have fallen any from yesterday.

[skysummit]

Well, looking at this morning's visible loops, the storms are not longer getting sheared like they were yesterday and the day before in the western gulf. I just looked at the shear charts and it's down to 5 - 20kts and still decreasing. WV loop also verifies shear is on the decrease.

[KatDaddy]

Jeff over at WeatherUndergound chimes in about the disturbance

An area of disturbed weather continues in the western Gulf of Mexico, near the Texas/Mexico border. The thunderstorm activity has become better organized this morning, and wind shear has dropped to 10 knots over the region. There are no signs of a surface circulation or the development of upper level outflow, but the disturbance has a good-sized area of heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is forecast to remain below 15 knots through Monday night, which may allow for some continued development. However, the disturbance is very close to land, and will likely move ashore before developing into a tropical depression. South Texas/Northeast Mexico should get a good soaking on Monday, bringing the threat of flash flooding.