94L Invest Comments Thread #2

[stormtruth]

Still mid-level according to that update. Any pressure drops in the area? It looks like thunderstorms on the GHCC link the pro mets gave us the other day. I'm sure a pro met will be around soon to tell us there is nothing here -- especially since they have dropped all the invests. The rain does sound bad and for areas that don't need another deluge

[Starburst]

Here are the latest stats for here a little pressure drop
24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 4 PM (20) Jul 01 81.0 (27.2) 75.0 (23.9) 30.05 (1017) ENE 9 light rain with thunder
3 PM (19) Jul 01 84 (29) 73 (23) 30.05 (1017) NNE 7 light rain with thunder
2 PM (18) Jul 01 84.9 (29.4) 73.0 (22.8) 30.08 (1018) Variable 3 thunder
1 PM (17) Jul 01 80.1 (26.7) 75.0 (23.9) 30.09 (1018) Variable 3 light rain with thunder
Noon (16) Jul 01 78 (26) 75 (24) 30.1 (1019) Variable 6 light rain

[canetracker]

Given the current scenario and advisories, it looks like Texas is in for a soaking.

[canetracker]

You can see a small low-level circulation off of West La Coast. Looks like convection is about to increase in a band to the right of the center.


http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Far bottom left.

Sure looks like some type of circulation is forming. Notice the rotation of the rain bands on below local radar. It seem as though their is circulation, of some type, trying to wrap around.
http://www.wwltv.com/weather/myownradar/50/index.html

[Swimdude]

It is one ugly ugly ugly day here in West Houston. I'm really not looking forward to several days of rain, to be quite honest.

One question.

Can anyone tell me why this thing is an invest? It's just tropical moisture feeding itself into our area.

[cycloneye]

It is one ugly ugly ugly day here in West Houston. I'm really not looking forward to several days of rain, to be quite honest.

One question.

Can anyone tell me why this thing is an invest? It's just tropical moisture feeding itself into our area.

94L invest has been gone from NRL since mid-morning so this is exinvest 94L.

[LaBreeze]

From what I'm seeing on tv and TWC a great deal of rain is in store for parts of Texas and LA. The heaviest amount (up to 10 inches in some areas) is expected between Lake Charles and Beaumont. Anyone else seeing these numbers? An area that doesn't need a huge amount this soon following the deluge they experienced a while back. Still we could use some rain here in SW LA - to the southeast of Lake Charles along the coast. We are so dry.

[KatDaddy]

Oh yes indeed. SE TX will be very wet.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
343 PM CDT SAT JUL 1 2006

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-021200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
343 PM CDT SAT JUL 1 2006

...PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SETTING UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING...GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LIVINGSTON TO CONROE TO SARGENT
LINE. MINOR STREET FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE SLOW MOVING
STRONG CELLS OCCUR. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN THE GULF AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BEGIN MOVING INLAND TOWARD
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

EXTREMELY HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY EVEN LONGER.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ON SUNDAY AS
HEATING OCCURS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 0.75 TO 1.5 INCH RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH LOCALIZED 5 TO 7 INCH AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE WHERE SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING STRONG STORMS OCCUR. ALTHOUGH
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS TO HAPPEN WILL BE SOUTH OF A BELLVILLE
TO LIBERTY LINE...IT COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

THE HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE ON MONDAY AND
PERSIST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE VALUES ARE KNOWN TO
PRODUCE THE TORRENTIAL 2 TO 4 PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. ANY SLOW
MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT CAN CAUSE MAJOR FLOODING
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IF THEY OCCUR IN LOW LYING AND URBANIZED
AREAS. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERNS HAVE BROUGHT LOCALIZED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES...SOMETIMES IN A FAIRLY SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. UNFORTUNATELY...WITHOUT CURRENTLY SEEING A
DISTINCT SURFACE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ON...WE ARE JUST NOT ABLE TO
PINPOINT THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ALL
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE LATEST
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BE PREPARED FOR A FLOOD AND FLASH
FLOOD POSSIBILITY. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY SUNDAY
MORNING OR AFTERNOON.
IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AND TAPER DOWN
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THOUGH MANY FOLKS WILL RECEIVE
QUITE A BIT OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MOISTURE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECLINE ON FRIDAY...BUT
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

[kjun]

Anyone knows if JB still thinks that this GOM system will develop?? Any news from him tonight?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Anyone knows if JB still thinks that this GOM system will develop?? Any news from him tonight?

No, no news since early this morning when he said that since a LLC never developed that it will likely only be a rain event. He did say that we should still watch closely, because something could always spin up right off the TX coast in the coming days.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I will now declare it dead...I'm about ready to fall out of my chair I'm so bored.

[mvtrucking]

The visible sure shows something spinning in this area:

[Opal storm]

I will now declare it dead...I'm about ready to fall out of my chair I'm so bored.

I don't think this thing was ever alive. But enjoy these quiet times they won't last long.

[Swimdude]

The visible sure shows something spinning in this area:

Yeah... Whatever that thing was, it has faded in the past few frames. Probably just in the upper levels. Nothing exciting.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Derek Ortt]

Matt,

its July, you'll have your storms and their side effects soon enough. Just wait about amonth, and there will be more than you will want to track

[Stormcenter]

Matt,

its July, you'll have your storms and their side effects soon enough. Just wait about amonth, and there will be more than you will want to track

Unfortunately that is so true.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Anyone else noticing this recent blow up of convection in the BOC? It doesn't look like much now, but if the convection can continue growing and strengthening, then may be 94L will come back from the dead!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

that burst of convection has gotten better defined over the last 40 minutes. If this holds together it will mean (at the very least) a focused batch of heavy rains moving up the coast of TX tonight and tomorrow. Worst case scenario would be for a bit of weak TC development to occur, but I think the chances of that are slim (unless it continues to get it's act together).

[dixiebreeze]

The Invest might be gone, but the BOC still looks pretty suspicious to me tonight:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

[Opal storm]

That blob is moving towards MX/TX.