94L Invest Comments Thread #2

[Extremeweatherguy]

it looks sickly

yeah, but remember Alberto? He looked sickly even when it was a TS.

[Brent]

it looks sickly

Yeah.

[Grease Monkey]

Time to write off 94L. *Has bucket of crows ready*

[SouthFloridawx]

Time to write off 94L. *Has bucket of crows ready*

???

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, I would not write it off yet. This thing may just decide to surprise us overnight or tomorrow. For now though it does look sickly. I wouldn't be surprised if something else forms on the heels of invest 94L over the weekend though. We could be looking at an invest 96L in the same area soon (If another system spins up after 94L dies down).

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A system on June 4th 2001 about where this is looked the same way. I'v got tapes of this. Then the next morning it was off the texas coast. 6 hours later was tropical storm Alison causing 5 billion in damage. So look at history some time it comes back to bite you. I think the chances are pretty small for this to development but not dead yet.

[southerngale]

A system on June 4th 2001 about where this is looked the same way. I'v got tapes of this. Then the next morning it was off the texas coast. 6 hours later was tropical storm Alison causing 5 billion in damage. So look at history some time it comes back to bite you. I think the chances are pretty small for this to development but not dead yet.

Although I'm quite certain the setup isn't even close to the same, I do remember that nobody expected it to develop into anything either, at least nobody that I heard talking about it. And once it did, I recall a local met saying it "was the most pathetic looking tropical storm he'd ever seen" or something to that effect. It didn't look well, but then again, winds were never a problem with Allison. It was those TORRENTIAL rains that wouldn't stop that hurt us so bad.

Anyway, certainly not expecting anything like that in the morning.

[LaBreeze]

We could certainly use some rainfall out of this system here in LA. I do feel that this is a TX rain event if anything. Local met has even cut back on the possible rainfall percentages for the next few days into next week. He had 50-60% and now has cut back to 30-40% at best.

[djones65]

I personally don't believe 94L will develop into a tropical cyclone. However, if you look at buoy 42055 surface pressures have fallen 2 mb in the past 24 hours.
http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_p ... tion=42055
In fact pressures over the western Gulf have fallen 2 mb in 24 hours although they are still very high at 1015-1016 mb.

[Grease Monkey]

I wouldn't be surprised if something else forms on the heels of invest 94L over the weekend though. We could be looking at an invest 96L in the same area soon (If another system spins up after 94L dies down).

I agree.

I recall a local met saying it "was the most pathetic looking tropical storm he'd ever seen" or something to that effect.

.....Until he or she saw Alberto lol.

[HurricaneHunter914]

There was no suprise over night, it now just looks kinda worse.

[SouthFloridawx]

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LOW/TROUGH REMAINS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FAR W ATLC. DIFFLUENCE OVER
THE W GULF IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION W OF 90W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ALONG THE N GULF COAST
TO E TEXAS. ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE E GULF...ONLY WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE AREA.

[Starburst]

This thing has made a circle for itself???

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, it looks bad this morning. Chances of development look a lot lower unless another area can fire up today.

[wxman57]

A system on June 4th 2001 about where this is looked the same way. I'v got tapes of this. Then the next morning it was off the texas coast. 6 hours later was tropical storm Alison causing 5 billion in damage. So look at history some time it comes back to bite you. I think the chances are pretty small for this to development but not dead yet.

Actually, there's a nice animation of Allison's formation and track on the LSU hurricane animations web page:

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/demos/hurricanes ... n-loop.gif

No, it didn't look like much out there. Just a weak low-level swirl, even when it moved ashore. All TS-force winds were detached well to the east of the center. There were arguments as to whether or not it was even a TS. But Allison proved that rainfall is not a function of intensity when its remnant swirl moved south over Houston 3 days after landfall and dropped over 30 inches of rain in northeast parts of the city that Friday night.

Oh, here's the hurricane animations page, itself:
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/best_ ... hurr_anim/

And as for 94L, upper winds don't look favorable for any development. But it could cause heavy rain across the NW Gulf coast and inland areas of TX/LA over the next 2-3 days.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB this morning agrees that this has gotten no better organized. However, he still expects this to be a very heavy rain event for parts of Texas with 6-10" rain amounts possible. He also said he is not letting his guard down yet as tropical development could still occur off the Texas coast with this system.

Also, he said to expect another active rain period in the western Gulf (may be even tropical development) later next week. July 10-20th should also be another active period in the Atlantic (according to him).

Lots to watch in the coming days. I just hope my trip to Raleigh, NC is not affected from July 6th - 12th. It would not be fun to have either TX or NC affected during that time.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

NRL page is without 94L as they took it out.

[tailgater]

Funny how now that most everyone has forgot about about this Invest, it now has a low level circ. half over land/water(which wasn't evident yesterday) at the southern most BOC and the pressure is a tad lower than yesterday, but all the Tstorms have moved northward. I'm not predicting development just thought it was interesting.

[Extremeweatherguy]

latest satellite loop looks like a tropical wave is interacting with the system. Everything seems to get shunted west. This could also lead to more development as the day goes on. Also, that area half inland/half over water in Mexico is very suspicious. Luckily, it seems like it will not be moving back over water anytime soon.

[Yankeegirl]

Oh well, Im sure there will be other storms in the GOM soon enough and we will quickly forget about little ol 94... Its all good... Im ready for the rain, bring it on!!!