Atlantic Tropical Waves,Comments,Sat Pics Thread #2

[Tampa_God]

The wave in the Carribean looks like is weaking in convention. Not that much convection as 3 days ago. There is a low in the Southern Carribean that has some convention, any chance of that forming?

[Aquawind]

The wave in the Carribean looks like is weaking in convention. Not that much convection as 3 days ago. There is a low in the Southern Carribean that has some convention, any chance of that forming?

Not much said in the TWD this morning..

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR
13N76W AND COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 63W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N79W NW TO NICARAGUA
NEAR 12N84W. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED ACROSS
THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER FLOW IS ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA S OF
20N E OF 67W WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE.

Low is inland..
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/CAR_latest.gif

Not much expected..
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

[cycloneye]

LSU IMAGE

After almost 2 weeks without seeing big waves emerge Western Africa,today a big one is emerging.However,the same will occur as what happened with the others.But it's getting closer the time when we will start to look more closely to that part of the world.This thread has been very quiet and unserstandable as anything has been going on in the Tropical Atlantic in the last almost 2 weeks.But as activity picks up in the next few weeks the thread for sure will come to life.

[Aquawind]

It looks to be awhile as expected before anything gets going near Africa.. Not much activity along the ITCZ over Africa either..


http://www.goes.noaa.gov/FULLDISK/GMIR.JPG

[Aquawind]

Hmm.. Low Pressure showing up just east of South America now.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

[cycloneye]

Hmm.. Low Pressure showing up just east of South America now.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

Ummm,very interesting.Now this thread will turn alive. I think that this is the area drezee pointed out in another thread.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Atlantic



Looking at what is going on between Africa and the Lesser Antilles there is a wave almost midway that has some interest as maybe there is a weak turning,as in another thread someone talked about and Aquawind also posted a forecast by Tafb.

[gatorcane]

it is the one on 40W earlier - looks promising.

[cycloneye]

Convection has increased a little with this wave.What is important to look for is if it has cyclonic turning and it may have a weak turning.

[no advance]

Looks really good for the end of June. This might be a threat to the islands in a few days. Unlikely for develpment but it is something to watch. Persistant.

[Weatherboy1]

That's probably the best wave yet for the Atlantic out around 40W. Persistent convection at a fairly low latitude give it a chance considering we're almost into July. There's a fair amount of shear out ahead of it, but certainly less than a few weeks ago. So it definitely bears watching.

[canegrl04]

In July we will probably see more formation fromthese waves coming off of Africa. I expect 2-3 named storms next month

[cycloneye]

LSU Visible Image



Here is a good closeup visible image view of the wave and whole Tropical Atlantic.

[caribepr]

Yawn. Let me know when it gets close enough to tell the cat Just kidding...I had worried newcomers today, literally asking me if people here "worry about hurricanes" - I said, we don't worry (uh huh), but we are concerned and aware...told them the real short version of what to prep and then to just enjoy themselves the times of the year they are here. The wife saying, oh, hadn't thought of that or that either, the husband looking like he was making plans in his head, while I gave a cheery "And after you're all prepped, enjoy, because there is nothing you can do to stop it, so don't worry about it!" Easier said than done, but hey, they bought property here, they better get used to going with the flow...I didn't mention there is no evacuation here, reality wise...oopsy.

[cycloneye]

Atlantic Image



As July arrives,the areas that climotology is favored expands a little bit.Besides the GOM,Western Caribbean and near the Bahamas the area east of the Lesser Anrilles between 50w and 60w is an area that favors July formation.So let's watch and see in July if anything develops in that area in 2006.Right now nothing is brewing east of the Lesser Antilles.

[cycloneye]

Visible Tropical Atlantic Image



The only thing of note and is anything that may develop is an inverted-v type wave or kink in the ITCZ axis around 46w as it can be seen the structure at the above visible pic.

[cycloneye]

Nothing to open eyebrows in the Tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles on this sunday,July 2nd.Only a couple of Tropical Waves are traveling westward thru the Atlantic waters.The Wave near 50w is poised to affect the NE Caribbean on the 4th of July.But also there is plenty of dust especially east of 40w spreading westward as you can see at link below.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

[Anthonyl]

What are the general thoughts on the vigorou wave at 55w.Looks pretty potent with lots of TS activity. Though not expexted to develop because of strong westerles aloft, it could bring some decent rains to the islands.

[abajan]

What are the general thoughts on the vigorou wave at 55w.Looks pretty potent with lots of TS activity. Though not expexted to develop because of strong westerles aloft, it could bring some decent rains to the islands.

Well, convection is blossoming quite impressively but those westerlies seem to be keeping the wave (or at least its clouds) from progressing westward!

[Aquawind]

NAM has hinted at a closing low on a few runs.. Keyword - NAM..

TBW Discussion..

FXUS62 KTBW 030705
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
305 AM EDT MON JUL 3 2006

.SHORT TERM (TDY - WED)...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN
THE GFS AND THE NAM THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL COMPLICATE THE
FORECAST A BIT. FIRST OFF...NAM CLOSES OFF A LOW IN THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS TONIGHT THEN SWINGS IT WESTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA`S EAST
COAST ON TUESDAY. THE LOW MOVES LITTLE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN BEGINS
TO LIFT NORTHWARD UP THE EAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY.SHOULD THIS SCENARIO PAN OUT...THE SURFACE RIDGE WOULD BUILD SOUTH
OF THE LOW CENTER AND BRING WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A TROPICAL WAVE
PASSING ACROSS THE STATE AROUND THAT SAME TIME...BUT NO INDICATION
OF A CLOSED LOW. THIS WOULD KEEP EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE WHILE THE
WAVE MOVES WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. PREFER TO IGNORE THE LOW
FOR NOW AND LEANED TOWARD GFS SOLUTION FOR PLACEMENT OF RIDGE AXIS
TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE STATE ON
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE NAM HAS
DRIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH IN LEVY
COUNTY WHILE THE GFS IS BETTER THAN 1.5 INCHES. THIS WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON HOW MUCH...IF ANY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
OVER THE NATURE COAST TODAY. THIS DIFFERENCES REALLY SHOWS UP IN
THE MOS GUIDANCE WHERE FOR OCALA...THE GFS SUGGESTS POPS OF 46
PERCENT WHILE THE MET HAS 4. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS
THE NAM PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS ABOUT A HALF INCH LOWER THAN
THE GFS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE DRIER AIR MOVES WEST OF THE STATE AND
BOTH MODELS SHOW ABOUT 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AVAILABLE.

LOOKING AT BOTH WATER VAPOR AND GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY...CAN`T HELP
BUT TO FAVOR THE NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE DRY AIR. AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW HAS CUT OFF NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND IS
DROPPING SOUTH AT THIS TIME. THIS IS DRIVING DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH HAS ALREADY REACHED LEVY
COUNTY. GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS TREND WITH LOWER PW
VALUES PUSHING STEADILY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. AND LETS FACE
IT...THE GFS HAS BEEN HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE DRY AIR FOR THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS. STILL...WITH RESPECT TO THE MOS GUIDANCE...THE
TRUTH WAS ACTUALLY SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE TWO...AND THAT IS HOW I
WILL PLAY IT FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

THE MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW HAS WEAKENED ENOUGH SO THAT
GULF BREEZES SHOULD FORM AND MOVE A FEW MILES INLAND EACH DAY.
THIS WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS ARE
FORECAST TODAY...AND ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER IN LEVY COUNTY WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED.

BOTH MET AND MAV POPS DROP SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TUESDAY AS BOTH MODELS
BRING AT LEAST SOME DRIER AIR IN. HAVE GENERALLY SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE WITH ISOLATED FOR LEVY...THEN LOW END SCATTERED POPS
FOR MOST OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND 40 PERCENT FOR THE INTERIOR
AND SOUTHWEST WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MOST PLENTIFUL.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...BOTH MODELS BRING MOISTURE BACK IN EARNEST
FOR WEDNESDAY SO HAVE HIGH END SCATTERED...50 PERCENT POPS FOR ALL
AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (WED NGT-SUN)...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST DIPPING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THURSDAY
BECOMING ORIENTED EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY FRIDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL SET UP A
MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL ADJUST THE TIMING OF ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST THEN SHIFTING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE
WEEKEND THE LATEST GFS HANGS THE BOUNDARY UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AROUND SO THAT SOME PART OF THE REGION COULD GET A GOOD
SOAKING. HOWEVER...EXACT DETAILS OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES
AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND REMAIN THE BIG QUESTIONS AND
FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED POPS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND REMAIN
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION AND
COULD REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE LOWS COULD BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW OFF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.MARINE...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND BENIGN SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ONLY HAZARD WILL BE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY CLOSE TO THE COAST AS THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY IS PUSHED INTO THE GULF LATE EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE LIKELY TO SHIFT TO A LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING EVENT AS THE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCAL MVFR VISIBILITIES/IFR CEILINGS
IN FOG/LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
BRIEFLY CAUSE SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED AS THE DRY
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH ABOVE THE
SURFACE TO NOT BECOME A FACTOR IN LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FIELDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 91 74 91 75 / 40 10 30 10
FMY 92 74 92 74 / 60 20 40 20
GIF 91 73 91 74 / 50 10 40 10
SRQ 91 73 91 74 / 40 10 30 10
BKV 92 70 92 70 / 40 10 30 10
SPG 89 77 89 77 / 40 10 30 10