94L Invest Comments Thread #2

Extremeweatherguy · #101 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 7:06 pm

I can still see the spin though. Especially when I play the loop at fast speeds. You can follow it from this morning all the way to now.

#102 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 7:12 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I can still see the spin though. Especially when I play the loop at fast speeds. You can follow it from this morning all the way to now.

But it's not where near the surface. I don't even think it's at the mid levels any longer. I just see cirrus clouds with a slight spin.

Extremeweatherguy · #103 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 7:13 pm

The 18Z NAM has this area coming ashore the upper TX coast as some form of low pressure system in 48 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _048.shtml

Extremeweatherguy · #104 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 7:14 pm

skysummit wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:I can still see the spin though. Especially when I play the loop at fast speeds. You can follow it from this morning all the way to now.

But it's not where near the surface. I don't even think it's at the mid levels any longer. I just see cirrus clouds with a slight spin.

yeah, it is likely not near the surface, but it is not gone yet. As long as this spin persists there is a chance it could work it's way to the surface.

Stratosphere747 · #105 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 7:15 pm

I'm not sure how much better AFM could have explained the current situation. Things could change, but it is fairly evident what is going on at the present time.

southerngale · #106 Postby **southerngale** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 7:29 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:The 18Z NAM has this area coming ashore the upper TX coast as some form of low pressure system in 48 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _048.shtml

Didn't the NAM also have Alberto coming ashore on the Upper Texas coast?

Edit: I do think the Upper Texas coast is gonna get something, but I think it will likely just be a lot of rain. That seems to be the general consensus among most of the mets.

Extremeweatherguy · #107 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 7:31 pm

southerngale wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:The 18Z NAM has this area coming ashore the upper TX coast as some form of low pressure system in 48 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _048.shtml

Didn't the NAM also have Alberto coming ashore on the Upper Texas coast?

It had it coming ashore in Mexico back towards the beginning of Alberto's life. However, it swithced over to the FL landfall look once the system really got going. This was also back when the NAM-WRF was still experimental too.

#108 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 7:31 pm

southerngale wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:The 18Z NAM has this area coming ashore the upper TX coast as some form of low pressure system in 48 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _048.shtml

Didn't the NAM also have Alberto coming ashore on the Upper Texas coast?

I think but, i could be wrong... the farthest west it had it coming in was LA and not the city.

#109 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 7:35 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:yeah, it is likely not near the surface, but it is not gone yet. As long as this spin persists there is a chance it could work it's way to the surface.

Actually...not only is it not likely near the sfc...it's NOT near the sfc (your way of phrasing it is that of an optimist :lol:

)

The spin is not even at the mid-levels, which in order to work it's way down any time soon...you have to have the mid-level vorticity invovled with deep persistent convection...neither of which are present...and neither is a mid level spin. The spin is clearly in the upper levels...500mb and up. On the IR...look at the temp of the spin. The spin is at a level that is enhanced on the IR and not a dark gray...which means its cold...which means its WAY up there.

Also on the IR...all the milky white you see in the southern GOM (on the GHCC)...brighter white on the SSD page...is mid level clouds. The temp on those clouds are running in the 0C range...and in that area...that is at about 600 MB....or about 15K feet.

The spin you see is showing a temp of -20 - -30C ...which means it is ABOVE 400mb....or above 25,000 feet....all the way up to 32,000 feet.

That's a lot of working down to do.

#110 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 7:36 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:yeah, it is likely not near the surface, but it is not gone yet. As long as this spin persists there is a chance it could work it's way to the surface.

Actually...not only is it not likely near the sfc...it's NOT near the sfc (your way of phrasing it is that of an optimist )

The spin is not even at the mid-levels, which in order to work it's way down any time soon...you have to have the mid-level vorticity invovled with deep persistent convection...neither of which are present...and neither is a mid level spin. The spin is clearly in the upper levels...500mb and up. On the IR...look at the temp of the spin. The spin is at a level that is enhanced on the IR and not a dark gray...which means its cold...which means its WAY up there.

Also on the IR...all the milky white you see in the southern GOM (on the GHCC)...brighter white on the SSD page...is mid level clouds. The temp on those clouds are running in the 0C range...and in that area...that is at about 600 MB....or about 15K feet.

The spin you see is showing a temp of -20 - -30C ...which means it is ABOVE 400mb....or above 25,000 feet....all the way up to 32,000 feet.

That's a lot of working down to do.

Wait a second AFM....I did NOT say that! That is NOT my quote! Please go back and edit it!

#111 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 7:38 pm

skysummit wrote:
Wait a second AFM....I did NOT say that! That is NOT my quote! Please go back and edit it!

Already beat you to it...was editing while you were....venting.

#112 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 7:39 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
skysummit wrote:
Wait a second AFM....I did NOT say that! That is NOT my quote! Please go back and edit it!

Already beat you to it...was editing while you were....venting.

LOL...well at least I had an excuse to vent! :lol:

CHRISTY · #113 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 7:39 pm

southerngale · #114 Postby **southerngale** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 7:42 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
skysummit wrote:
Wait a second AFM....I did NOT say that! That is NOT my quote! Please go back and edit it!

Already beat you to it...was editing while you were....venting.

And I fixed yours, skysummit.

bigmoney755 · #115 Postby **bigmoney755** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 7:57 pm

it looks further east than the models.

HurricaneHunter914 · #116 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 7:59 pm

Looks like development is unlikely for now since apparently we can barley get anymore decreasing shear into the BOC and GOM.

Yankeegirl · #117 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 8:26 pm

Well weather or not it develops we are still going to get some rain, and that is a good thing...

Extremeweatherguy · #118 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:42 pm

Well at this point I guess we go to bed and see what is in store for us tomorrow morning. Anything can happen overnight.

BTW: the spin is still visible on shortwave IR and looks to be getting better organized. Then again my eyes may be playing tricks with me as I think I am getting sick. Here is the loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

Yankeegirl · #119 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 10:43 pm

The local met fianlly mentioned the "area of intrest"....I knew I should have bought my batteries today!! lol... j/k!!!

bigmoney755 · #120 Postby **bigmoney755** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 10:49 pm

it looks sickly

94L Invest Comments Thread #2

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