INVEST 93L Comments Thread #2

HurricaneHunter914 · #101 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:27 am

Okay thanks! Now that I look at the SAT it does look like there is a connection connecting both of them.

no advance · #102 Postby **no advance** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 10:48 am

Even with the wind shear there is alittle spin just ahead of the system east of the bahamas. Is this still an invest?

#103 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 10:57 am

no advance wrote:Even with the wind shear there is alittle spin just ahead of the system east of the bahamas. Is this still an invest?

I do notice a spin - wouldn't be surprised if we see an invest on this tonight if there is still convection...

HurricaneHunter914 · #104 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 11:13 am

93L seems to be disappating. In the meantime the system near the bahamas is growing. Possible Invest later today.

no advance · #105 Postby **no advance** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 11:14 am

I have seen similar situations of tw splitting with potentional develpments down the road. This northern section of the tw needs to be watched. Looks like the tw is moving WNW. Toward S Car area. Bad news if so.

#106 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 11:18 am

no advance wrote:I have seen similar situations of tw splitting with potentional develpments down the road. This northern section of the tw needs to be watched. Looks like the tw is moving WNW. Toward S Car area. Bad news if so.

I agree - if the convection persists through the day and into tonight - we need to get concerned since Florida would be in its path.

sunnyday · #107 Postby **sunnyday** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 11:34 am

We may need to be concerned that Florida is in the path of what? The local mets say a tropical wave will be over S. Fla. on Sat. and Sun. Are you talking about another development?
Thanks for the info....

#108 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 11:38 am

sunnyday wrote:We may need to be concerned that Florida is in the path of what? The local mets say a tropical wave will be over S. Fla. on Sat. and Sun. Are you talking about another development?
Thanks for the info....

ther eis a concentrated blob of convection that has fired due to the interaction of 93L and a UL to the north - now if it persists through today and tonight even if the UL moves away - we need to watch this thing as ridging is building to the north which will push this into Florida

sunnyday · #109 Postby **sunnyday** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 11:44 am

Thank you. I appreciate your taking the time to explain. I was confused about if this new development is part of the tropical wave due in S. Fla. this weekend.

#110 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:04 pm

I say forget 93L...time for 95L with the blob north of Puerto Rico

#111 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 2:45 pm

That new blob is just an open tropical wave - no organization at all.

jusforsean · #112 Postby **jusforsean** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 4:45 pm

o.k. so let me get this straight???
93l is heading tword south florida ( is the NWS ) still recognizing this as an invest? so its suppose to affect south florida by sunday??
95i ( our newest baby ) is also heading in the south florida area , affecting us when if it does??
and 94i thats in the GOM an area so affect texas perhaps/??

Just trying to keep it straight here, can get very confusing! :lol:

#113 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 4:50 pm

jusforsean wrote:o.k. so let me get this straight???
93l is heading tword south florida ( is the NWS ) still recognizing this as an invest? so its suppose to affect south florida by sunday??
95i ( our newest baby ) is also heading in the south florida area , affecting us when if it does??
and 94i thats in the GOM an area so affect texas perhaps/??

Just trying to keep it straight here, can get very confusing!

93L is no longer listed on the Navy's site and I have seen no model runs since the 27th so I suppose we are just using this thread to track the position and convection of the wave. But, a large and magnificent wave it was until it met it's match... High Upper Level shear.

jusforsean · #114 Postby **jusforsean** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 5:06 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
jusforsean wrote:o.k. so let me get this straight???
93l is heading tword south florida ( is the NWS ) still recognizing this as an invest? so its suppose to affect south florida by sunday??
95i ( our newest baby ) is also heading in the south florida area , affecting us when if it does??
and 94i thats in the GOM an area so affect texas perhaps/??

Just trying to keep it straight here, can get very confusing!

93L is no longer listed on the Navy's site and I have seen no model runs since the 27th so I suppose we are just using this thread to track the position and convection of the wave. But, a large and magnificent wave it was until it met it's match... High Upper Level shear.

However 93l is still going to bring us much rain over the weekend correct?

HurricaneHunter914 · #115 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 7:55 pm

93L has disappated.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #116 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 7:57 pm

Its dead Jim! :lol:

#117 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 8:38 pm

no advance wrote:I have seen similar situations of tw splitting with potentional develpments down the road. This northern section of the tw needs to be watched. Looks like the tw is moving WNW. Toward S Car area. Bad news if so.

Ding! Ding! Ding! You win the prize! Many people just follow the latest "blob", thinking that the strongest thunderstorms now have the greatest chance of development. But 93L is behaving precisely as expected (by me, anyway). Convection flared up as it passed the upper trof (and enhanced lifting) but is just about gone now. But the wave remains intact along about 70-71W this evening. It's quite hard to find, but it's there.

If I were to pick the system with the best chance of development over the next 3-5 days (94L, 95L, or poor old 93L), I'd pick what's left of 93L. Both 94L and 95L may be fighting a losing battle with shear in the coming days, but 93L will be moving into a prime area for development by Monday. Remember, easterly trade winds are very strong in the central Caribbean, too strong to allow for much convection with the passing wave. But once the wave nears the Yucatan, I think it'll flare up significantly and pose a much greater chance of developing than will 94L. 94L is leading the way, sacrificing itself so that 93L may develop in its wake, so to speak.

Now, that said, I don't think that the chances of 93L developing are great, but I would go as high as maybe 20-30%. Still, a better than not chance that nothing will come of it. But of all the disturbances out there, it's 93L that has me most concerned. By concerned, I mean that it may have a chance of developing, not that it might become a major hurricane, though. I think a Bret or Gert of 2005 track would be most likely.

#118 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 10:47 pm

wxman, would you say the apprx. location of the wave would be here:

southerngale · #119 Postby **southerngale** » Sat Jul 01, 2006 12:15 am

South...here it is.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/CAR_latest.gif

#120 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Jul 01, 2006 12:34 am

southerngale wrote:South...here it is.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/CAR_latest.gif

Thanks!

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