94L Invest (B0C),Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

HouTXmetro · #362 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 8:28 am

CAN WE GET A FLOATER ON 94L? GEESH

#363 Postby **Starburst** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 8:28 am

Looks like it is moving north???? I guess maybe Joe Bastardi could be right

#364 Postby **tailgater** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 8:30 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 AM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...

WE WERE HAVING A FAIRLY PLEASANT NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE 60S AND TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND
THE BERMUDA HIGH. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT WE WILL MOVE INTO A PATTERN
WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO LOUISIANA FROM TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY REACHING PARTS OF OUR AREA BY SUNDAY. THE NAM
SHOWS A CIRCULATION DEVELOPING IN THE ACTIVITY...MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS JUST SHOWS THE MORE
REGULAR DIURNAL ACTIVITY. WE WILL NOT JUMP ON THE NAM CIRCULATION
JUST YET. THEN THE GFS SHOWS A FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ON WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT COULD GIVE US SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE
AVERAGE CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA.

They sound like we gonna get some RAIN. I'll believe it when I see it. :sprinkler:

HouTXmetro · #365 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 8:31 am

Can we say the models are trending East? lol

#366 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 8:34 am

HouTXmetro wrote:Can we say the models are trending East? lol

We can say that there's no center to track, the NHC just picked a point in the middle of the blob to see where the upper-level winds would take the moisture. The DSHP model shows no development beyond what's there, nor does any other model. And we can say that we'll be spending our weekend indoors due to all the rain.

HouTXmetro · #367 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 8:37 am

tailgater wrote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 AM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...

WE WERE HAVING A FAIRLY PLEASANT NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE 60S AND TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND
THE BERMUDA HIGH. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT WE WILL MOVE INTO A PATTERN
WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO LOUISIANA FROM TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY REACHING PARTS OF OUR AREA BY SUNDAY. THE NAM
SHOWS A CIRCULATION DEVELOPING IN THE ACTIVITY...MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS JUST SHOWS THE MORE
REGULAR DIURNAL ACTIVITY. WE WILL NOT JUMP ON THE NAM CIRCULATION
JUST YET. THEN THE GFS SHOWS A FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ON WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT COULD GIVE US SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE
AVERAGE CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA.

They sound like we gonna get some RAIN. I'll believe it when I see it.

Hmmm....in accordance to this discussion.
1. I gather the action could possibly be further east?
2. Assuming there is one, does a slow front mean a slower moving/ stalled TC when they interact?

vaffie · #368 Postby **vaffie** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 8:37 am

HouTXmetro wrote:Can we say the models are trending East? lol

We don't have real models yet unfortunately. The ones displayed simply take the current speed and direction of the storm and either take climatologic data--meaning that they use decades of past storm paths in those locations or they look at a snapshot of the upper and lower-levels and say if everything stays exactly the same, what will they do. Because the storm over the last six hours has taken a NNW track rather than a WNW track as it was previously doing, naturally, those models have shifted north. The only "dynamic" modeling is the GFS and NGM right now apparently, which just say that this mess will move north towards the SE Texas coast, but aren't saying what type of storm it will evolve into or where it's 'track' will be.

DESTRUCTION5 · #369 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 8:38 am

wxman57 wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:Can we say the models are trending East? lol

We can say that there's no center to track, the NHC just picked a point in the middle of the blob to see where the upper-level winds would take the moisture. The DSHP model shows no development beyond what's there, nor does any other model. And we can say that we'll be spending our weekend indoors due to all the rain.

WXman57 you remind me of a guy named FranK that used to be here..he used to kill any kind of development(not saying this will develop) and one day Katrina formed after he said no way...an I have not seen him since..LOL

#370 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 8:39 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:Can we say the models are trending East? lol

We can say that there's no center to track, the NHC just picked a point in the middle of the blob to see where the upper-level winds would take the moisture. The DSHP model shows no development beyond what's there, nor does any other model. And we can say that we'll be spending our weekend indoors due to all the rain.

WXman57 you remind me of a guy named FranK that used to be here..he used to kill any kind of development(not saying this will develop) and one day Katrina formed after he said no way...an I have not seen him since..LOL

Frank was right about alot - we call can't be right about everything. I think WxMan has this one nailed pretty good....

#371 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 8:43 am

Wxman isn't killing development. Mother Nauture is. :lol:

DESTRUCTION5 · #372 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 8:45 am

jschlitz wrote:Wxman isn't killing development. Mother Nauture is.

OK Lets use the word Doubtign hows that..

#373 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 8:55 am

well for one the vast majority of waves don't develop anyway. 2nd, as a pro met he's just analyzing the data, and the data shows upper winds are not favorable. he's just calling it how he sees it. any good met wants his forecast to verify.

fwiw most of here in TX hopes it doesn't develop. we've had 2 systems dump flooding rains on us so far this season. the last thing we need is a full-blown TC forming. if signs eventually point to that i'm confident wxman and others will accurately change their projections.

southerngale · #374 Postby **southerngale** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 8:57 am

Going by what one of our local mets said last night, as well as the local NWS, they seem to agree with what wxman57 is saying, at least at this time. The NWS discussion in Lake Charles (covers some of SE TX & SW LA) paints a very wet weekend/start to next week and then issued a Special Weather Statement. (below if you want to read it)

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
526 AM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-302115-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
526 AM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006

...THE EXTENDED INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND LOOKS WET...

GULF BREEZES WILL RETURN THIS EVENING, AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. RICH MARINE AIR, ORIGINATING
OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN, WILL RIDE-IN ON SUSTAINED
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THIS CARIBBEAN AIRSTREAM, UPON REACHING THE
COAST, WILL UPGLIDE OVER THE DRY AIR RESTING OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE THE RESULT, AS
THIS UPGLIDING AIR COOLS TO SATURATION.

THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, FIRST ACROSS THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND INTO SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THEIR ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS IN THE MORNING, THEN OVER LAND IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE SOAKING RAINS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD OUT TO INCLUDE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA, AND THE LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

THIS RAINY WEATHER WILL PERSIST ON-AND-OFF INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

NWS Lake Charles forecast discussion

Extremeweatherguy · #375 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 8:59 am

gatorcane wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:Can we say the models are trending East? lol

We can say that there's no center to track, the NHC just picked a point in the middle of the blob to see where the upper-level winds would take the moisture. The DSHP model shows no development beyond what's there, nor does any other model. And we can say that we'll be spending our weekend indoors due to all the rain.

WXman57 you remind me of a guy named FranK that used to be here..he used to kill any kind of development(not saying this will develop) and one day Katrina formed after he said no way...an I have not seen him since..LOL

Frank was right about alot - we call can't be right about everything. I think WxMan has this one nailed pretty good....

Wxman said this would go poof and be onshore by now and be nothing to worry about. Seems like that is not the case.

wxman57 wrote:Not much to it tonight. Thunderstorms are just about gone and it's moving ashore tomorrow. Just a puff of thunderstorms today. Forget about it. Go take the weekend and 4th of July off and have a great time. Might not see any development for another 4-5 weeks. Just a typical June/July pattern.

HurricaneHunter914 · #376 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:02 am

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Looking at this shear map its going to be hard for anything to develop in the BOC.

Extremeweatherguy · #377 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:03 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

Looking at this shear map its going to be hard for anything to develop in the BOC.

Actually, according to this map, shear is decreasing to the west and north of this system.

DESTRUCTION5 · #378 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:03 am

jschlitz wrote:well for one the vast majority of waves don't develop anyway. 2nd, as a pro met he's just analyzing the data, and the data shows upper winds are not favorable. he's just calling it how he sees it. any good met wants his forecast to verify.

fwiw most of here in TX hopes it doesn't develop. we've had 2 systems dump flooding rains on us so far this season. the last thing we need is a full-blown TC forming. if signs eventually point to that i'm confident wxman and others will accurately change their projections.

Don't get me wrong here..WX Man is awesome at predicting i just like to see the reasons a professional Met thinks a storm has a chance rather than the obvious insications that we can all see showin in the models of no dev...

HurricaneHunter914 · #379 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:04 am

Whoops, when I looked at the map it wasn't updated yet. Right now if the shear can decrease more then I'd give it a 50% chance of developing.

#380 Postby **Starburst** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:04 am

That is what our weatherman said shear is actually decreasing just a bit

94L Invest (B0C),Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

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