94L Invest (B0C),Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[KatDaddy]

Your right about the rain-out. The Hou-Gal NWS is also chiming in with your same thoughts.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
309 AM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...
A WET HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA. A WEAKNESS AT 500
MB...COUPLED WITH PW`S IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND BROADLY DIVERGENT
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL SPELL SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN. THE PW`S ARE
NEARLY TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE
GFS IS ALSO SHOWING SEVERAL STRONG VORTS CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE
MID 80S AND VIRTUALLY NO CAPPING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. 250 MB
WINDS ARE BETWEEN 30-40 KNOTS SO DEVELOPMENT OF ANYTHING TROPICAL
IS UNLIKELY...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE? EITHER WAY...THIS MOISTURE WILL
HEAD NORTH TODAY.

THE GFS HAS BEEN ADVERTISING THIS EVENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS. OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS SOLUTION SO
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH THAT ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS
ON THE WAY. STORM MOTION WILL VARY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KNOTS SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE LACK OF A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LOW OR SFC BOUNDARY BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW A WIDER
AREAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE PRECIP BUT THE GFS PUSHES A SLOW MOVING
SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE ARE WED/THU. THIS FEATURE WILL FOCUS
PRECIP AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD AGAIN OCCUR. THIS TROPICAL
ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR THE FORMATION OF MORNING FUNNEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND PROBABLY LASTING INTO
TUESDAY.

[skysummit]

Doesn't look like this disturbance will do anything but spread rain up the coast of Mexico today and across souterrn and coastal areas of Texas through the weekend. Convection is scattered all over the place, no focus, and wind shear is increasing. I'm not very concerned about it developing, but I am concerned about a rain-out here in Houston this weekend.

Sounds like a lot of posters here predicted some very high numbers for the season.

Well, you also said yesterday that it would be inland within 24 hours. It looks like it's still sitting in the same location. You don't think there's even a possibility that it'll sit there long enough for the environment to change? I believe, when it comes to the BoC, there's always that possibility.

[HouTXmetro]

Ok, I'll admit that the circualtion I was watching appears to be just onshore.

[skysummit]

Ok, I'll admit that the circualtion I was watching appears to be just onshore.

LOL...I'll admit that the circulation I'm currently watching appears to be just offshore.

[HouTXmetro]

Ok, I'll admit that the circualtion I was watching appears to be just onshore.

LOL...I'll admit that the circulation I'm currently watching appears to be just offshore.

LOL, I give up.

[skysummit]

Ok, I'll admit that the circualtion I was watching appears to be just onshore.

LOL...I'll admit that the circulation I'm currently watching appears to be just offshore.

LOL, I give up.

Actually, I see two....both look to be at the mid levels though.

[HouTXmetro]

Ok, I'll admit that the circualtion I was watching appears to be just onshore.

LOL...I'll admit that the circulation I'm currently watching appears to be just offshore.

LOL, I give up.

Actually, I see two....both look to be at the mid levels though.

That would no be good if the Eastern MLC got down to the surface.

I need to study the satellite a bit more to see if that is indeed an MLC.

[skysummit]

That would no be good if the Eastern MLC got down to the surface.

I need to study the satellite a bit more to see if that is indeed an MLC.

It might just be a trick on the eyes though. I might just be seeing lower clouds moving with the easterlies, and the higher ones being sheared to create that "rotation" look. We really visible to tell.

[HouTXmetro]

That would no be good if the Eastern MLC got down to the surface.

I need to study the satellite a bit more to see if that is indeed an MLC.

It might just be a trick on the eyes though. I might just be seeing lower clouds moving with the easterlies, and the higher ones being sheared to create that "rotation" look. We really visible to tell.

SHear doesn't seem as bad as it was yesterday.

[vbhoutex]

On the local news at 10:00 that I watched, the met didn't specifically mention the BOC system. He just said that the upper low in Mexico should track eastward and stall out in South Central Texas, and the moisture from the GOM should start to lift into our area, increasing our rain chances significantly this weekend. He did not mention development at all regarding it, but said some of the showers could be quite heavy and our rain chances had gone up a lot for Saturday through at least Tuesday (as far as the 5-day forecast went) and he said they could go up even more.

Anyway, just posting what a local here said.

With that ULL to our West and the high that has been over us moving off to the East there is going to be a funnel picking up all of that moisture to our South, including the mess in the BOC. Indeed it does look like a wash out for th eweekend in SC and SE TX. Tropical in nature? Yes, but I'm not sure we are going to have a TC to deal with.

[tailgater]

The buoy in the Northern BOC does report some decent pressure drops from 24hrs. ago.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

[Roxy]

AWWWWW CRAP! I really wanted to take our new boat out this weekend.

(*&*($&(*&#*(#^%^#*!

[tailgater]

Pressures still high, but lowering a bit and the possiblity of a surface circ(broad) developing.

This is at the southern most point of BOC and the second one is to it's NW.
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMMT.html
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMVR.html
no southerly wind report yet.

[skysummit]

The 06z NAM shows the initial area of concern down there to move into Mexico while another area of circulation forms and moves into Texas.

[skysummit]

One of the first visible shots of the morning:

[WindRunner]

The buoy in the Northern BOC does report some decent pressure drops from 24hrs. ago.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

Unfortunately, that little pressure drop was reversed in the last hour.

[wxman57]

Doesn't look like this disturbance will do anything but spread rain up the coast of Mexico today and across souterrn and coastal areas of Texas through the weekend. Convection is scattered all over the place, no focus, and wind shear is increasing. I'm not very concerned about it developing, but I am concerned about a rain-out here in Houston this weekend.

Sounds like a lot of posters here predicted some very high numbers for the season.

Well, you also said yesterday that it would be inland within 24 hours. It looks like it's still sitting in the same location. You don't think there's even a possibility that it'll sit there long enough for the environment to change? I believe, when it comes to the BoC, there's always that possibility.

The weak MLC moved inland and dissipated last night. Remaining moisture is being driven NW-NNW up the Mexican coast toward Texas into a region of increasing wind shear. You are correct, though, that as long as any thunderstorms remain over water that there is a chance of an LLC forming. But this is not a situation where I would expect explosive tropical development. Upper-level winds don't favor that.

What it means is that those of you (us) along the Texas coast that had outdoor plans over the next 2-3 days may be spending more time indoors.

[tailgater]

The buoy in the Northern BOC does report some decent pressure drops from 24hrs. ago.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

Unfortunately, that little pressure drop was reversed in the last hour.

Actually it's still dropping, you need to look at what it was 24hrs. ago with these very weak systems. The pressure will drop and rise twice a day,similar to the tides.

[drezee]

634
WHXX01 KWBC 301308
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942006) ON 20060630 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060630 1200 060701 0000 060701 1200 060702 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.0N 94.8W 21.1N 95.7W 22.6N 96.5W 24.3N 97.3W
BAMM 20.0N 94.8W 20.9N 96.3W 21.9N 97.6W 23.2N 98.7W
A98E 20.0N 94.8W 20.8N 95.0W 21.9N 95.3W 23.3N 96.3W
LBAR 20.0N 94.8W 20.9N 95.6W 22.8N 96.5W 25.0N 97.0W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 30KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060702 1200 060703 1200 060704 1200 060705 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.2N 97.9W 29.7N 98.8W 32.4N 98.6W 33.7N 96.5W
BAMM 24.4N 99.8W 26.9N 101.7W 29.1N 103.2W 30.8N 104.2W
A98E 24.9N 97.0W 27.4N 99.0W 30.0N 99.6W 31.9N 98.4W
LBAR 27.2N 97.0W 30.4N 94.4W 31.4N 90.5W 32.5N 86.1W
SHIP 39KTS 46KTS 49KTS 52KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.0N LONCUR = 94.8W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 19.0N LONM12 = 94.7W DIRM12 = 341DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 18.6N LONM24 = 94.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 75NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HouTXmetro]

The 06z NAM shows the initial area of concern down there to move into Mexico while another area of circulation forms and moves into Texas.

I think the LOW onshore was an Upper Low already there.