stormtruth wrote:Shouldn't you at least look more closely at the last five or ten years for recent trends? Even some experts who don't think global warming has an impact still believe we are in a cycle of increased activity.
Actually, very early on in my studies I began comparing the very active period from the 1940s through the 1960s to the current pattern. Very similar in terms of the Atlantic MDO and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. I figured I'd find that many more named storms formed during the last active cycle. To my surprise, I found that there were actually fewer named storms per season in the active period than in the relatively inactive period from 1970-1994. It wasn't much of a difference - about 9.8 storms per season (cool Atlantic) versus about 9.4 storm per season (warm Atlantic).
Of course, these days the NHC is naming subtropical storms, so that average will go up by 2-3 per season in the future.
Let's take a look at the past 11 season's "B" storm formation date:
1995 -- July 5
1996 -- July 5
1997 -- July 11
1998 -- Aug 19
1999 -- Aug 18
2000 -- Aug 13
2001 -- Aug 2
2002 -- Aug 4
2003 -- June 28
2004 -- Aug 3
2005 -- June 28
So even in this very active cycle, the "B" storm formed in August 6 of the 11 years, more than 50% of the time. So my statement that the "B" storm may have to wait 4-5 weeks might not be so far off the mark. At least we can all hope Beryl doesn't form until August, right?
It looks like from 1995-2005 we have averaged about 14 storms so this period looks to be more active than the others. Hope is always a good thing.
