94L Invest (B0C),Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[Extremeweatherguy]

He may be half right. IMO it seems like JB is actually starting to make more sense.

exactly; and another thing to remember is that he called the general timing right for Alberto, he called that gale force gusts were going to come to the east coast from the last system, and he called the general time period and area for the current invest. I think he is doing very well this year! He hasn't made a significant mistake of any sort yet!

[HurricaneHunter914]

I think JB is overhyping it just a bit.I don't see any rapid development coming out of this.

That's why I said,"HALF Right".

[Aquawind]

We will see how long the convection can persist and the pressure can thus drop.. Good persistance today..

[Opal storm]

I think JB is overhyping it just a bit.I don't see any rapid development coming out of this.

Well, before his interview, I'd normally think the same thing and just write it off, but now understanding more about the way he thinks and forecasts, I do have a little more respect for him and pay a little attention to what he says.

I'm not bashing him I just don't agree.I'm still siding with what our pro mets think.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think JB is overhyping it just a bit.I don't see any rapid development coming out of this.

Well, before his interview, I'd normally think the same thing and just write it off, but now understanding more about the way he thinks and forecasts, I do have a little more respect for him and pay a little attention to what he says.

yeah, and he is even admitting that nothing may very well come out of this. But he is saying that everything will be there for development and that if this does develop it could potentially do so rapidly. So he is not saying, "this is going to become a hurricane!", but rather, "this has a decent shot at becoming a strong system!". I think he is making sense and being somewhat conservative at the same time.

[gatorcane]

Its only been here for less than a day.

Exactly it could be gone by tomorrow AM or could blow up overnight - we just have to wait and see. We need to see persistent convection for 24 hours and so far we are about 1/2 way there maybe a little more.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Its only been here for less than a day.

Exactly it could be gone by tomorrow AM or could blow up overnight - we just have to wait and see. We need to see persistent convection for 24 hours and so far we are about 1/2 way there maybe a little more.

or it could die away and everyone think it is gone only to blow up again once the west caribbean wave meets up with it.

[southerngale]

I think JB is overhyping it just a bit.I don't see any rapid development coming out of this.

While I tend to agree, when do we ever see rapid development? It always seems to take us by surprise, including the NHC a lot.
(certainly not saying this will as it may not even develop at all...just pointing that out)

[HurricaneHunter914]

Exactly you can't say convection is persistent because it has convection.

[Grease Monkey]

I'm waiting for one of those threads: "time to write off 94L"

[HurricaneHunter914]

Or "This Season is a dud" threads.

[Stratosphere747]

I think JB is overhyping it just a bit.I don't see any rapid development coming out of this.

Well, before his interview, I'd normally think the same thing and just write it off, but now understanding more about the way he thinks and forecasts, I do have a little more respect for him and pay a little attention to what he says.

yeah, and he is even admitting that nothing may very well come out of this. But he is saying that everything will be there for development and that if this does develop it could potentially do so rapidly. So he is not saying, "this is going to become a hurricane!", but rather, "this has a decent shot at becoming a strong system!". I think he is making sense and being somewhat conservative at the same time.

Would you not admit by this statement, he could not be possibly wrong?

It might not develop, but then again it just might explode......

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think JB is overhyping it just a bit.I don't see any rapid development coming out of this.

Well, before his interview, I'd normally think the same thing and just write it off, but now understanding more about the way he thinks and forecasts, I do have a little more respect for him and pay a little attention to what he says.

yeah, and he is even admitting that nothing may very well come out of this. But he is saying that everything will be there for development and that if this does develop it could potentially do so rapidly. So he is not saying, "this is going to become a hurricane!", but rather, "this has a decent shot at becoming a strong system!". I think he is making sense and being somewhat conservative at the same time.

Would you not admit by this statement, he could not be possibly wrong?

It might not develop, but then again it just might explode......

Well what he is saying is that he believes that everything will be in place for development, but whether or not it does is yet to be seen. If it does develop, however, then it will have plenty to feed off of to become stronger. If it doesn't develop though, then it will be at least a rain maker for TX. Basically it is still too early for even him to know what will happen, but it seems like he thinks this has a better shot than not of doing so.

[HouTXmetro]

I think JB is overhyping it just a bit.I don't see any rapid development coming out of this.

Well, before his interview, I'd normally think the same thing and just write it off, but now understanding more about the way he thinks and forecasts, I do have a little more respect for him and pay a little attention to what he says.

yeah, and he is even admitting that nothing may very well come out of this. But he is saying that everything will be there for development and that if this does develop it could potentially do so rapidly. So he is not saying, "this is going to become a hurricane!", but rather, "this has a decent shot at becoming a strong system!". I think he is making sense and being somewhat conservative at the same time.

Would you not admit by this statement, he could not be possibly wrong?

It might not develop, but then again it just might explode......

LOL, JB is trying to have it both ways.

[skysummit]

[KatDaddy]

Joe B is flipping again........j/k I respect his concerns and forecasts. Thanks Extremeweatherguy for paraphrasing and keeping us in tune with Joe B's thoughts. I just dont see the BOC becoming a threat. Into Mexico with the flow and gone the next 24 hours are my thoughts. Perhaps it will bring some tropical moisture into TX. On the flip-side what is Joe is on target this time around. Sorry Joe but I will be quite surprised should something develop and head toward TX. I will be watching along with eveyone else.

[Opal storm]

Its only been here for less than a day.

Exactly it could be gone by tomorrow AM or could blow up overnight - we just have to wait and see. We need to see persistent convection for 24 hours and so far we are about 1/2 way there maybe a little more.

or it could die away and everyone think it is gone only to blow up again once the west caribbean wave meets up with it.

The Carib wave (93L) is still days from even reaching the Gulf,is 94L still going to be there by then?

[Extremeweatherguy]

looks like none of these models take it WEST into Mexico. All of them have a somewhat northward component. If you take the average of them it looks like a bulls eye would be on the northern Mexico coast and then moving up into S. Texas.

[gatorcane]

Guys and Gals - check out this loop here. To be honest with you, 93L's convection has persisted as much as 94Ls today. What am I missing here??? Looks like 93L will give 94L a run for its money

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[Rainband]

I think his statement was safe and agree with 747.