94L Invest (B0C),Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

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Cyclenall
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#181 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Jun 29, 2006 8:21 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:
Scorpion wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:I can't beileve that Bret is coming back for the 2006 season. The same thing with Alberto, he formed 40 hours late from Arlene. If this is a repeat, then Chris will come out of 93L on July 2, 2006.


Heh, its possible. If 93L continues to track across the Caribbean and form near the Yucatan then voila, theres a repeat of Cindy :)

This is scary, this season is the same as 2005 only 40 hours late! That's only if everything goes as it should. 94L has to form first before all this comes to past. I don't know if it will form though.


Then look out for Debby...that would be the first of the many devastating storms...and just around the corner too!

Yep. Debby downer.
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HurricaneHunter914
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#182 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 8:22 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

No Floater yet.
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Rainband

#183 Postby Rainband » Thu Jun 29, 2006 8:23 pm

It's running out of room. The movement to the north and east is shear induced. Like derek and Airforcemet and Wxman57 said. It's going to be in mexico soon. :wink:
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#184 Postby skysummit » Thu Jun 29, 2006 8:24 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

No Floater yet.


The Floater Engineering Dude must be at an extended smoke break. Will someone request it again?
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#185 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jun 29, 2006 8:25 pm

johngaltfla wrote:
gatorcane wrote:here we go. I bet we'll see 5000 views by 12:00 tonight....

watch this board go nuts

:eek: :eek: :eek:


5000?

Nah. Only 4932. You're too much of an optimistic pessimist.

:D


Maybe I left out a zero

:roflmao:
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Jun 29, 2006 8:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#186 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Jun 29, 2006 8:25 pm

The storms coming in from the East are the typical Yucatan Evening Showers.
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#187 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 8:25 pm

I'd still give it about a 30% chance of development. Conditions can change fast there, and the SST's are favorable. The shear needs to subside though.
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#188 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 8:26 pm

That would be a miracle if the shear subsided right now.
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#189 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jun 29, 2006 8:27 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:That would be a miracle if the shear subsided right now.


where is there no shear in the Atlantic. Seems like anything that tries to get going is still being ripped to shreds.
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#190 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Jun 29, 2006 8:28 pm

Image
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#191 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 8:29 pm

Actually 93L seems to have put its shear repelant on. :lol:
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#192 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jun 29, 2006 8:33 pm

JB just put out a long post about this system tonight, and here is the latest:

-JB thinks the trough split coming will allow shear to decrease over the system and rapid development could occur.

-He said everything is in place for development, but whether it does actually pull through and do so is still yet to be seen.

-The upper trough is breaking away from the system and a ridge could take it's place allowing good outflow for the system.

-He is "convinced" that the MLC is over water and will stay over water through Saturday as it heads NW.

-The wave coming quickly through the west Caribbean may add extra fuel to this system.

-Unlike last year he says this WILL NOT head west directly into Mexico, but rather north or northwest.

-He says if this does get going, then it could explode into a beast real quickly.

-At the very least tons of rain is coming to south/southeast Texas.

-He is watching this area VERY VERY closely.

And so this is where he stands right now, and I think his thoughts are enough to get anyone in Texas concerned! We could be in for an interesting period of weather.

By the way here is a look at the surface forecast from the NHC to see that wave in the west Caribbean:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
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#193 Postby skysummit » Thu Jun 29, 2006 8:37 pm

Those thoughts are interesting enough to get anyone along the western and northern gulf coast a little concerned.
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#194 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jun 29, 2006 8:38 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:Image
that yellow path is more in line with what I think this will do.
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#195 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jun 29, 2006 8:38 pm

skysummit wrote:Those thoughts are interesting enough to get anyone along the western and northern gulf coast a little concerned.


hmmmmmmmmmmm....lets see how it looks tomorrow AM
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#196 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 8:38 pm

He may be half right. IMO it seems like JB is actually starting to make more sense.
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Opal storm

#197 Postby Opal storm » Thu Jun 29, 2006 8:38 pm

I think JB is overhyping it just a bit.I don't see any rapid development coming out of this.
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#198 Postby Grease Monkey » Thu Jun 29, 2006 8:39 pm

I guess we can expect at least another 5000 views by 12am with this new forecast.
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#199 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jun 29, 2006 8:39 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:I guess we can expect at least another 5000 views with this new forecast.


I think we'll hit 50000 with this one (noticed I added the zero) :eek:
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#200 Postby skysummit » Thu Jun 29, 2006 8:40 pm

Opal storm wrote:I think JB is overhyping it just a bit.I don't see any rapid development coming out of this.


Well, before his interview, I'd normally think the same thing and just write it off, but now understanding more about the way he thinks and forecasts, I do have a little more respect for him and pay a little attention to what he says.
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