SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic Thread #4

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I believe 1997 the gulf and western caribbean was also above normal. But with all the ULLS/strong tutt it was inactive. This system is turning out to be alot strong TUTT and ULLS droping deep into the tropics.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I believe 1997 the gulf and western caribbean was also above normal. But with all the ULLS/strong tutt it was inactive. This system is turning out to be alot strong TUTT and ULLS droping deep into the tropics.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I wonder why the water along the Tropic of Cancer is warmer than the water along the Equator?

[LarryWx]

I wonder why the water along the Tropic of Cancer is warmer than the water along the Equator?

My guess would be because the sun is currently overhead the Tropic of Cancer, not the equator.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The difference between June 27/28 2005/2006...As you can see the Gulf of Mexico has alot more TCHP this year then 2005. Also the Northwestern caribbean is much more powerful Tchp. The difference is that there is slightly less east of the leewards island west of 60 west. But more just north of the islands.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 6178at.jpg

This shows that the Tchp over the gulf is alot more powerful this year. Spreading over a much larger area not just the loop current. Also shows soild reds which where not there this time last year. As you can see if a storm got into the northwest caribbean, it would have alot more to work with then wilma had.


2005
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5179at.jpg

Now this is on the 17th of this June...
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 6168at.jpg


This June it has warmed up alot faster over the Caribbean.


This is July 5th 2005
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5188at.jpg


Here is just after Wilma
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5298at.jpg

Here is when Wilma bombed
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5293at.jpg


Here is August 1st 2005
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5213at.jpg

As you can see the gulf of Mexico has a larger area of Tchp then August 2005. But the Loop was of course stronger. Same over the northwest caribbean.

We look at the Tchp after Katrina
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5242at.jpg

SSt as of today
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 8atsst.png

Last year
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 8atsst.png

July 27th 2005
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 8atsst.png

Late August 2005
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 8atsst.png

[clfenwi]

I believe 1997 the gulf and western caribbean was also above normal. But with all the ULLS/strong tutt it was inactive. This system is turning out to be alot strong TUTT and ULLS droping deep into the tropics.

For those wondering... June-September SST Anomaly for 1997



Same for 2005



Graphics made by http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/Composites/printpage.pl

[drezee]

First 90 degree temp for one of the big three Mid-gulf buoys (42001 (90.3F), 42002, & 42003) yesterday. Light winds helpoed in the STT rise, but last year on June 30th the same bouy had similiar light wind conditions and only got to 88.7...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=M&tz=STN

2006:
2006 06 29 00 50 030 3.0 4.0 0.2 0 MM MM 1015.7 29.1 31.4 MM MM -2.8 MM
2006 06 28 23 50 350 2.0 2.0 0.2 0 MM MM 1015.6 29.5 31.8 MM MM -4.1 MM
2006 06 28 22 50 MM 0.0 1.0 0.2 0 MM MM 1016.6 30.0 32.4 MM MM -3.4 MM
2006 06 28 21 50 MM 0.0 1.0 0.2 0 MM MM 1018.5 30.9 32.0 MM MM -1.7 MM
2006 06 28 20 50 MM 0.0 1.0 0.2 0 MM MM 1019.7 30.7 32.1 MM MM -1.4 MM
2006 06 28 19 50 190 1.0 1.0 0.2 0 MM MM 1020.0 29.5 31.9 MM MM -1.4 MM


2005:
2005 06 30 20 00 165 2.2 3.3 0.34 7.14 4.08 148 1015.1 29.2 31.4 23.8 99.0 99.00
2005 06 30 21 00 159 2.2 3.3 0.29 7.14 3.94 149 1014.8 29.1 31.2 24.4 99.0 99.00
2005 06 30 22 00 163 2.2 2.8 0.32 7.14 4.06 158 1013.1 29.0 31.2 24.6 99.0 99.00
2005 06 30 23 00 142 1.6 2.5 0.30 7.14 4.17 146 1013.5 29.2 31.5 24.6 99.0 99.00
2005 07 01 00 00 130 1.1 2.0 0.30 4.76 4.18 206 1012.9 29.2 30.9 24.9 99.0 99.00



The nighttime obs are almost identical:

2006:
2006 06 28 09 50 180 4.0 5.0 0.2 0 MM MM 1017.4 28.5 29.0 MM MM -0.0 MM
2006 06 28 08 50 170 4.0 5.0 0.2 0 MM MM 1017.1 28.5 29.0 MM MM -0.3 MM
2006 06 28 07 50 170 3.0 4.0 0.2 0 MM MM 1017.2 28.5 29.1 MM MM -0.3 MM
2006 06 28 06 50 200 2.0 3.0 0.2 0 MM MM 1017.3 28.6 29.1 MM MM +0.0 MM
2006 06 28 05 50 210 2.0 2.0 0.2 0 MM MM 1017.4 28.7 29.3 MM MM +1.1 MM


2005:
2005 06 28 05 00 95 8.9 10.3 1.08 3.57 3.42 97 1015.2 26.1 29.1 22.4 99.0 99.00
2005 06 28 06 00 99 8.2 9.9 1.04 4.35 3.50 75 1014.8 26.1 29.1 22.3 99.0 99.00
2005 06 28 07 00 111 7.2 8.4 0.88 3.85 3.31 89 1014.4 26.2 29.0 22.9 99.0 99.00
2005 06 28 08 00 117 7.8 9.0 0.85 3.45 3.31 125 1014.1 26.5 29.0 23.2 99.0 99.00
2005 06 28 09 00 115 7.0 8.3 0.83 4.35 3.24 93 1013.6 26.5 29.0 22.9 99.0 99.00

[cycloneye]

Atlantic Anomales update



I didn't saw this graphic posted in the thread but I am now posting it and it's interesting how the anomalies haved risen in many parts of the basin.But look at the North Atlantic area how those anomalies are running between 3-5 degrees C above average.

[SouthFloridawx]

Atlantic Anomales update



I didn't saw this graphic posted in the thread but I am now posting it and it's interesting how the anomalies haved risen in many parts of the basin.But look at the North Atlantic area how those anomalies are running between 3-5 degrees C above average.

Pretty much above normal in the entire Atlantic Basin.

[whereverwx]

Here’s a loop of the SST’s for the month of June:


Here’s a small archive of the SST anomalies:

[HurricaneHunter914]

OMG! The GOM is HOT!

[drezee]

The GAP widens:

I have noticed that the experimental TCHP is higher overall in the GOM and NW Caribbean than even last year. 2005 was amazingly warm and for 2006 to have even more available heat content than last year at this time seems to argue for even more potential (all other parameters being equal). I think we may have one of those years that we have rapid development near the coastline; especially with the LOOP current more to the NE than last year (i.e. closer to the coast). It looks as if the loop current has set up due south of Mobile Bay instead of Pascagoula like last year.

2006:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 6180go.jpg

2005:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5180go.jpg

[wxmann_91]

I believe 1997 the gulf and western caribbean was also above normal. But with all the ULLS/strong tutt it was inactive. This system is turning out to be alot strong TUTT and ULLS droping deep into the tropics.

I think you mean 2000. 1997 featured a strong Nino which caused strong westerlies (such as you see over the Atlantic now) to dominate the entire year.

The higher Heat Potential is weird, however, it might be the byproduct of a warm winter, and thus the subsfc temperatures weren't really cooled, and they warmed to extreme levels this year. That will bare watching.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The northeast of the islands the TCHP is 5 degrees farther west then they where last year. Which means less energy. But north of the islands its about 3 or 4 degree frather north. Also the caribbean and gulf of Mexico is about as warm as it was at last years peak.

On the other side theres alot stronger tutt(2002). With alot of upper level lows moving far into the tropics. Heck the SAL appears to have formed deep this year. So overall alot less faverable then last year.

One thing is these systems are developing close to land. One that made landfall over southern texas a month ago. Also another 91L which made landfall in NC. Which did not have time to devleop. So if this is a trend we could get the affects of many tropical storm like systems which do not quite close off. But later in the season when things get more faverable watch out.

[cycloneye]

STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE TRADES PERSIST IN THE TRADEWIND
BELT S OF 20N W OF 30W N OF THE ITCZ... ONE REASON ATLC WATERS
HAVEN'T WARMED AS MUCH AS LAST YEAR. ALOFT... RIDGING IS FROM W
MAURITANIA TO 17N40W BRINGING PLENTY OF ELY WINDS IN THE E
TROPICAL ATLC.

$$
BLAKE


Above is the 8 PM part of discussion that talks about one reason the waters are not as warm as in 2005.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The difference between June 27/28 2005/2006...As you can see the Gulf of Mexico has alot more TCHP this year then 2005. Also the Northwestern...

Matt you write very excellent analysis of ssts and not just
that you wrote very good analysis of the shear and Azores high and
reasons for Atlantic waves not developing in another thread.
Your analysis has taught me a lot in the past few weeks and is very
informative for storm2k. ***Oh by the way I just quoted part of what
you wrote above as to allow for me being able to type this post more easily on my computer.***

Also, many Pro-Mets as well as many other members have provided excellent analysis that has taught me a lot and been very informative.
Everyone's input and informative analysis make Storm2k very enjoyable.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Regarding the SSTs, here are some thoughts that are currently jumping around in my brain....I think that the tradewinds if they persist will keep SSTs slightly cooler than levels that are extreme (91-93+) but the SSTs
look to still remain very high if trends of warming continue
so it looks like SSTs may be able to support very powerful hurricanes
by August/September, if other conditions are favorable for
development (which they likely will be come August/September).

July could still feature 1-2 storms IMO one perhaps a strong
tropical storm or miminal hurricane.

Those SSTs are high though in the GOM and parts of the Caribbean,
so once other conditions such as shear conditions become
favorable for development, we could get some very intense storms
later this season.

[cycloneye]

Latest Update of Atlantic Anomalies



Wow,incredible those North Atlantic readings.

[CHRISTY]

Latest Update of Atlantic Anomalies



Wow,incredible those North Atlantic readings.

ive never seen that before!

[SouthFloridawx]

Latest Update of Atlantic Anomalies



Wow,incredible those North Atlantic readings.

ive never seen that before!

I wonder what type of affect this above normal temps would have on storms later this year that move towards the northeast and if these temps would give the storm some more fuel to keep going? Well besides being ripped apart by the westerlies.