94L Invest (B0C),Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[skysummit]

The 18z models never came out.

[Clint_TX]

WELL...THE MAGIC EIGHT BALL SAID VERY LIKELY

[Stratusxpeye]

Whoa wait a minute here. Everyone look at the avatars and under your names. All Cat 5's? Even ppl who joined in mar of this year. Thats like 100 posts a day or more. Maybe im missing something.

My input on this system is not much at all. Quick movement into s texas or mexico with no development. POssibly td if llc does close off and convection continues but thats it. IMO

*Edit And im a cat 2? Hmm i know i prolly missed something in the management forum im going there now

**Edit http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=100 ok nevermind I Understand now

[Yankeegirl]

The local met here didnt even mention the blob in the BOC on the 6 o clock news!!

[Stratosphere747]

The local met here didnt even mention the blob in the BOC on the 6 o clock news!!

Funny you mentioned that....

You must be talking about Frank B. on Ch2. After seeing the flareup and invest, I was very surprised to see him see nay a word on the BOC.

[Dean4Storms]

You guys get worked up over every little squall out there. Take a breath inward and then release!!

[Yankeegirl]

You must be a psychic!! or maybe radar told ya? I was surprised too... Go figure...

[southerngale]

You guys get worked up over every little squall out there. Take a breath inward and then release!!

I don't know if anyone is getting worked up, but this is a tropical forum, and this is an Invest, so talking about it is pretty logical.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Well its kinda irresponsible for a Pro-Met to to ignore a Tropical Disturbance that could effect someone. Well at least our Pro-Met mentioned it (Tom Terry).

[johngaltfla]

here we go. I bet we'll see 5000 views by 12:00 tonight....

watch this board go nuts

5000?

Nah. Only 4932. You're too much of an optimistic pessimist.

[Stratosphere747]

You guys get worked up over every little squall out there. Take a breath inward and then release!!

You would be surprised about how many of "us old-timers" are not "worked up" and just a bit curious on what may be potentially happening...

[drezee]

604
WHXX01 KWBC 300106
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942006) ON 20060630 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060630 0000 060630 1200 060701 0000 060701 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.0N 94.7W 19.8N 95.7W 20.8N 96.7W 22.0N 97.8W
BAMM 19.0N 94.7W 19.7N 96.3W 20.4N 97.7W 21.4N 98.8W
A98E 19.0N 94.7W 19.5N 95.4W 20.3N 95.9W 21.7N 96.2W
LBAR 19.0N 94.7W 19.5N 95.7W 20.7N 96.9W 22.4N 98.1W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 24KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060702 0000 060703 0000 060704 0000 060705 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.4N 99.1W 26.6N 101.2W 29.5N 102.6W 31.8N 103.4W
BAMM 22.5N 99.8W 25.1N 101.4W 27.4N 102.5W 29.6N 102.8W
A98E 23.9N 96.6W 28.5N 97.6W 32.9N 97.2W 35.4N 92.6W
LBAR 24.5N 99.0W 28.6N 98.6W 31.1N 94.9W 31.9N 90.9W
SHIP 37KTS 43KTS 47KTS 52KTS
DSHP 26KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.0N LONCUR = 94.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 18.6N LONM12 = 94.0W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 18.2N LONM24 = 93.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 75NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[HurricaneHunter914]

Hey its Hurricane Season what do you guys expect? During the off Season its called worked up. During the Hurricane Season its called entusiastic.

[HouTXmetro]

Where are the shear forecast maps when you need em?

[skysummit]

Where are the shear forecast maps when you need em?

I pretty much stopped looking at them. Over the past few weeks, they haven't really been of much accuracy. I've just been watching WV for the most part.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Here look at this map. Shear will probably inhibit development for a bit.

[Cyclenall]

Where are the shear forecast maps when you need em?

I've looked at them and they are totally wrong. They give the Caribbean favorable conditions for development right now. Weird maps.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like the main convection may be waining a bit, but behind it to the east a new area is flaring up. One thing that might happen is this first system die off and be replaced by a stronger area in the coming days. We will need to watch this whole area closely. Right now I truly am starting to have no idea on where this is going and what strength it will be. My best guess remains for the entire "mass" of convection to move up the TX coast.

[skysummit]

It really all depends on how long it stays down there. Will it persist long enough for the ridge to break down to the north? Will it begin to move northward tonight? Like always...wait, wait, wait.

[CrazyC83]

I can't beileve that Bret is coming back for the 2006 season. The same thing with Alberto, he formed 40 hours late from Arlene. If this is a repeat, then Chris will come out of 93L on July 2, 2006.

Heh, its possible. If 93L continues to track across the Caribbean and form near the Yucatan then voila, theres a repeat of Cindy

This is scary, this season is the same as 2005 only 40 hours late! That's only if everything goes as it should. 94L has to form first before all this comes to past. I don't know if it will form though.

Then look out for Debby...that would be the first of the many devastating storms...and just around the corner too!