94L Invest (B0C),Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[Extremeweatherguy]

I still have a feeling that JB will be right on this one. I think it will turn north like he said. He seems to have made good calls this season and there is no reason to think this current call will be wrong. Then again, he said he will make an official prediction tomorrow... so may be he will change his thinking by then.

The pro mets on this board have also done a great job this season,I think I'll side with them about this going NW into MX.

It very well may do so. JB never said anything about where it would make landfall, but based on the modeling and his saying it will turn north I find it to be a very hard to believe scenario at this point. We'll see though...

anything can happen.

[southerngale]

What modeling, Extreme? I respect what JB has to say, but I also respect what the mets on here say, so just wondering what the models are saying at this point.

[stormtruth]

I still have a feeling that JB will be right on this one. I think it will turn north like he said. He seems to have made good calls this season and there is no reason to think this current call will be wrong. Then again, he said he will make an official prediction tomorrow... so may be he will change his thinking by then.

The pro mets on this board have also done a great job this season,I think I'll side with them about this going NW into MX.

They have hardly been perfect. Some were incorrectly saying Alberto would dissipate and it did not. NHC has been much better.

[Extremeweatherguy]

What modeling, Extreme? I respect what JB has to say, but I also respect what the mets on here say, so just wondering what the models are saying at this point.

they are showing the moisture spreading north over the coming days.

72 hour 18Z GFS = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

72 hour 18Z NAM = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

Based on this, I would also tend to believe that the system we are watching would track more northward with the moisture.

[Opal storm]

I still have a feeling that JB will be right on this one. I think it will turn north like he said. He seems to have made good calls this season and there is no reason to think this current call will be wrong. Then again, he said he will make an official prediction tomorrow... so may be he will change his thinking by then.

The pro mets on this board have also done a great job this season,I think I'll side with them about this going NW into MX.

They have hardly been perfect. Some were incorrectly saying Alberto would dissipate and it did not. NHC has been much better.

Well nobody's perfect but overall I think they've done a great job so far.

[TexasF6]

Anyone have buoy data? Y'all know how these storms like Holidays....the pressure did drop to 1007.....how interesting....the METS in Austin are forecasting rain for us over the weekend....

[Stratosphere747]

I still have a feeling that JB will be right on this one. I think it will turn north like he said. He seems to have made good calls this season and there is no reason to think this current call will be wrong. Then again, he said he will make an official prediction tomorrow... so may be he will change his thinking by then.

The pro mets on this board have also done a great job this season,I think I'll side with them about this going NW into MX.

They have hardly been perfect. Some were incorrectly saying Alberto would dissipate and it did not. NHC has been much better.

Sorry to go off-topic here.. A little input from the NHC discussions...


"HOWEVER...A SECOND SCENARIO IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...IN WHICH THE DEPRESSION IS SEPARATED FROM ITS DEEP CONVECTION BY THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...LEAVING A WEAK VORTEX TO LINGER AND DEGENERATE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO."

[PTrackerLA]

Checking the latest visible looks very interesting. I believe this could become a TD if it stays offshore long enough. It will be interesting to see if it can hold together tonight.

[wxman57]

Woah.. It has a ways to go yet before it's that much like Bret..lol

I should specify -- Bret of 2005, not 1999. It will not be a Cat 4 hurricane heading for south Tx. Just a mass of storms moving inland into Mexico tomorrow.

[SouthFloridawx]

Woah.. It has a ways to go yet before it's that much like Bret..lol

I should specify -- Bret of 2005, not 1999. It will not be a Cat 4 hurricane heading for south Tx. Just a mass of storms moving inland into Mexico tomorrow.

Which storm did that last year?

Ah yeas Gert was kind of simalar to what is probably going to happen with this area.



Steering flow would take it right into Mexico.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

Or yes even Bret

[Extremeweatherguy]

I still doubt this is going to head WNW right into Mexico. If anything I still think NE Mexico as the furthest south scenario. May be similar to Hurricane Alice.

Also, SouthFloridawx, keep in mind that those steering currents change and may not be the same in 12 hours.

[SouthFloridawx]

I still doubt this is going to head WNW right into Mexico. If anything I still think NE Mexico as the furthest south scenario. May be similar to Hurricane Alice.

Well the winds @ 500mb would take it wnw right into mexico.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif

I could see moisture associated with this area heading north but, I don't think it has enough time.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I still doubt this is going to head WNW right into Mexico. If anything I still think NE Mexico as the furthest south scenario. May be similar to Hurricane Alice.

Well the winds @ 500mb would take it wnw right into mexico.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif

I could see moisture associated with this area heading north but, I don't think it has enough time.

See those W to E winds over the Houston area? Those winds are forecast to become S or SE by the weekend allowing lots of moisture to work into the area (thus increasing rain chances to 50%+). Also, all the models I have looked at bring moisture northward from the BOC into TX. I just do not see how this will be a central Mexico BOC storm. I could be wrong though. I don't think we will know for sure until tomorrow.

[TS Zack]

It will most likely ride up the Texas Coast slowly being so close to land that it will not do much.

That trough will lift out allowing a ridge to build off of Florida turning winds more Southerly by the weekend.

[gatorcane]

I think we really need to see if the convection will persist. It has only exploded this afternoon. If tomorrow AM it still looks good I say we may have something otherwise I will write this one off.

[JamesFromMaine2]

Heres a bouy and some land reports from near the center! some areas are down to 1012 mb from about 1015mb earlyer this afternoon and the bouy which is well north of the center started out with a pressure of 1018 and is now down to 1016

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCE.html
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMVA.html
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMMT.html
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=E&tz=EST

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is my prediction for tonight. It will likely change around many times as the center relocates and the moisture moves in different directions. However, if this center remains the same and can keep this convection around it...this is the path I expect:



I think it will move up the MX and TX coast dropping LOTS of rain.

[gatorcane]

This is my prediction for tonight. It will likely change around many times as the center relocates and the moisture moves in different directions. However, if this center remains the same and can keep this convection around it...this is the path I expect:



I think it will move up the MX and TX coast dropping LOTS of rain.

But there is no center yet. In fact it really doesn't even look that great. If there were some nice looking waves in the Atlantic we would hardly even pay attention to this. It's nothing more than a cluster of thunderstorms and the NHC says there is very little chance for development...

I'll check back when the NHC says something indicating there could be some development

[HouTXmetro]

This is my prediction for tonight. It will likely change around many times as the center relocates and the moisture moves in different directions. However, if this center remains the same and can keep this convection around it...this is the path I expect:



I think it will move up the MX and TX coast dropping LOTS of rain.

I'm going to have to go with you inland track unless the center relocates.

[hriverajr]

Don't flame me.... yes it may be too close to the coast to develop but it looks much better on satellite then the system that was off the florida east coast ever looked. That one was extremely overrated. This one may be underrated in the end.