INVEST 93L Comments Thread #1

[Opal storm]

LOL,it's amazing how quickly you guys write these things off. Just this afternoon some of yall were saying this looked like a TD,and now it's gone poof all of the sudden becuase the convection has died out.Convection dying out and then re-flaring again is very typical in weak disturbances like this. Have some patience and just watch it for the next few days and just see what happens. I don't think much is going to come out this either but it's June and there's really not much else out there to talk about.

[cheezyWXguy]

I never sed it was gonna die out...i said that convection was weakening rapidly, although i wouldnt be surprised to see a new flare-up by tomorrow morning...

[tailgater]

Yep just as expected this system has dry air on all sides. The tutt is nosing over the eastern caribbean pushing up a the Anticyclone, which is over this system, with 40 knot shear at 18 north/57 to 62 west. Which you would think would be a faverable outflow jet for this system. With 5 to 10 knot shear over it(LLC) which is faverable enough.

I think dry air is moving into the mid levels(Which is coming from the dry air around the system). Which is killing the convection. Also with the system is moving to fast to the west 15 to 20 mph...Which of course is not helping with closing this off totally. 1# Means convection can't punch through the stable layer(Cape) of dry air(Which keeps convection,thunderstorms form forming). 2# The system stays weak with less rising air then normal with out a totally closed LLC. In the fact that the system is moving fast.



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.htm

Understand now?

NO.

[cheezyWXguy]

It appears that the original LLC is running of to the west and an even faster speed than it was before...in the mean time, it looks like a tiny flare up of moderate convection has blown up around what I think is the MLC or even a new LLC at 12.5N 54.5W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

there appears to be stronger cyclonic turning right now than I have seen in the past twelve hours or so, even though there is a lack of convection around this system. Also it appears that the old, farther south circ. has reformed convection and is going to narrowly miss SA if not skim it...ther also appears to be some kind of circ. near 9N, 53W

[skysummit]

LOL,it's amazing how quickly you guys write these things off. Just this afternoon some of yall were saying this looked like a TD,and now it's gone poof all of the sudden becuase the convection has died out.Convection dying out and then re-flaring again is very typical in weak disturbances like this. Have some patience and just watch it for the next few days and just see what happens. I don't think much is going to come out this either but it's June and there's really not much else out there to talk about.

That's the statement of the day! LOL That's also why it's only an Invest and nothing more. It will pulse with convection and make everyone's heart start racing and by the next couple hours or so, it'll look dead and everyone rights it off.

[MWatkins]

There does appear to be just a little bit of convection near what would be the center of the broad low.

Water vapor imagery suggests there is plenty of moisture around:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv-l.jpg

However, even the GFS does not develop the system and chances are all of the shear is going to keep anything tropical from developing.

But to me...the more significant story is the projected 500MB pattern in 5 days...very zonal with no significant EC trough and the appearance of 594DM heights in the 0Z GFS run:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120m.gif

And to some extend NOGAPS:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 00&tau=120

And UKMET

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=120hr

As a new property owner in SFL I would rather see the mid-level trough axis setting up further east...but hey that is a 5 day forecast.

Going to be watching the EC trough with interest in the coming weeks.

MW

[Jim Cantore]

We've seen plenty of waves like this do nothing until they hit the Western Caribbiean or the GOM

[cheezyWXguy]

Very true, Hurricane Floyd, and that is exactly what I expect out of this...if the low can stay intact and do what its been doing over the past few days until 4 or 5 days from today/tonight(w/e u wanna call it) we could be talking about a NW carribean beryl or chris moving in to the gulf...I expect a hit somewhere on the western half of the US guld coast, ranging from corpus to biloxi...just a guess, no forecast from me...much too far in advance

[bvigal]

As far as the near-term, and weather for the EC next couple of days, this wave is like most others. Just as yesterday's forcast maps indicated, this morning the low pressure has indeed gone "poof". Pressures remain high.

Scatterometer pass this morning missed the entire area in question, so will have to wait another 10 hrs for that, at which time we'll have the ground reports in Windwards.

I still believe this will not move NW over Puerto Rico, but will continue westward, where it will keep our attention as it nears the west Caribbean.

[canegrl04]

Nothing is really going to get started untill mid July,I believe.

[beachbum_al]

I think it is something to watch but not get over excited about. A lot can happen~it can either go poof or it can organized.

[bvigal]

Anyone notice this morning's model plots (those models that even intialize this) have bent back to the west?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_93.gif

[cheezyWXguy]

I had a feeling thia thing may take a track between dennis and emily last year...and conditions have become too unfavorable for development at this time, but as long as the low stays together, once it gets to the W. Car. it could have time to develop.

[cheezyWXguy]

does anybody a shear map/ forecast?

[Opal storm]

I had a feeling thia thing may take a track between dennis and emily last year...and conditions have become too unfavorable for development at this time, but as long as the low stays together, once it gets to the W. Car. it could have time to develop.

I think wxman57 was saying something about a ridge building in,if that's the case if this develops it will probably take a track like Emily.

[cajungal]

It looks like it will head to the Gulf Of Mexico. Do you know if conditions in the Gulf will be favorable for development around that time? Bob Breck on channel 8 New Orleans breifly mentioned it last night, but he told us not to worry. That it probably won't develop.

[gatorcane]

There does appear to be just a little bit of convection near what would be the center of the broad low.

Water vapor imagery suggests there is plenty of moisture around:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv-l.jpg

However, even the GFS does not develop the system and chances are all of the shear is going to keep anything tropical from developing.

But to me...the more significant story is the projected 500MB pattern in 5 days...very zonal with no significant EC trough and the appearance of 594DM heights in the 0Z GFS run:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120m.gif

And to some extend NOGAPS:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 00&tau=120

And UKMET

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=120hr

As a new property owner in SFL I would rather see the mid-level trough axis setting up further east...but hey that is a 5 day forecast.

Going to be watching the EC trough with interest in the coming weeks.

MW

I have a bit of concern for South Florida looking atht he model runs that consistently take it into South Florida - but hopefully as just a weak wave.

[Tampa_God]

Anything in the Gulf that can block this storm from going West? Looking at the loop, this looks more like a wave now then a LLC. Also, I see some shear in the Northern Carribean, will that die out before this goes up there?

There is another wave in the Atlantic off the African coast that looks like it does have a Mid-Level circulation with it. Or maybe it's just me.

[vbhoutex]

Anyone notice this morning's model plots (those models that even intialize this) have bent back to the west?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_93.gif

Not that anything is etched in stone this far out, but gee, you are foull of good news for those of us in the GOM area if this holds together.

[curtadams]

It looks like it will head to the Gulf Of Mexico. Do you know if conditions in the Gulf will be favorable for development around that time? Bob Breck on channel 8 New Orleans breifly mentioned it last night, but he told us not to worry. That it probably won't develop.

GFS says high shear in the gulf although that is 144 hours out.