INVEST 93L Comments Thread #1

[JamesFromMaine2]

Ok well this will settle any questions about if it has a LLC!

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 14N WITH A 1014 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 11N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. BROAD MID LEVEL SIGNATURE
CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 50W-54W.

[Derek Ortt]

that does not mean that the low is closed. Nowhere does it say that

The area over NC also was a low, but not a closed low

[Tampa_God]

1014 mb isn't very confortable to be a TD yet.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No shoot it doe's. But convection faded tonight...Lets see if it reflares back up. Heck if 91L had a LLC it would of been upgraded to a tropical storm in a second today. Kind of funny how it works when a systems off Washington dc/eastern sea board. True derek but that doe's not mean that it could not change. If this where to slow down.

My theory is there is some dry air+the air mass is not warm enough. Not enough juice/heat to form deep convection. As it moves westward theres more energy.

[JamesFromMaine2]

91L did have a closed LLC! As it was making landfall after recon left they were finding all kinds of north winds! lol

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yep just as expected this system has dry air on all sides. The tutt is nosing over the eastern caribbean pushing up a the Anticyclone, which is over this system, with 40 knot shear at 18 north/57 to 62 west. Which you would think would be a faverable outflow jet for this system. With 5 to 10 knot shear over it(LLC) which is faverable enough.

I think dry air is moving into the mid levels(Which is coming from the dry air around the system). Which is killing the convection. Also with the system is moving to fast to the west 15 to 20 mph...Which of course is not helping with closing this off totally. 1# Means convection can't punch through the stable layer(Cape) of dry air(Which keeps convection,thunderstorms form forming). 2# The system stays weak with less rising air then normal with out a totally closed LLC. In the fact that the system is moving fast.



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Understand it?

[tailgater]

Yep just as expected this system has dry air on all sides. The tutt is nosing over the eastern caribbean pushing up a the Anticyclone which is over this sysem. 40 knot shear at 18 north. Which you would think would be a faverable outflow jet for this system. With 5 to 10 knot shear over it which is faverable enough.

I think dry air is moving into the mid levels. Which is killing the convection. Also the system is moving to fast to the west...Which of course is not helping with closing this off totally. 1# Means convection can't punch through the stable layer of dry air. 2# The system stays weak with less rising air then normal with not a totally closed LLC.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Could someone translate that for me.

[SouthFloridawx]

Yep just as expected this system has dry air on all sides. The tutt is nosing over the eastern caribbean pushing up a the Anticyclone which is over this sysem. 40 knot shear at 18 north. Which you would think would be a faverable outflow jet for this system. With 5 to 10 knot shear over it which is faverable enough.

I think dry air is moving into the mid levels. Which is killing the convection. Also the system is moving to fast to the west...Which of course is not helping with closing this off totally. 1# Means convection can't punch through the stable layer of dry air. 2# The system stays weak with less rising air then normal with not a totally closed LLC.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Could someone translate that for me.

Well this is what i'm seeing.

I know the Candian does not have a good handle on the tropics but, it brings it up into the Atlantic and develops it into an area of low pressure.
12Z 6-27-06 850mb vorticity.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Shear is quite high in the caribbean so I would be suprised if it were able to sustain convection of the wave. If thunderstorms were still forming most likely the tops would be blow off to the northeast rather quickly.

40KT shear over the caribbean
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Shear Tendency
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

GFS shows some of that shear abating in about 48 hours in the Eastern Caribbean. If the wave can slow down.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=048hr

LOOP
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Additionally it already seems to be affect by the shear on the north and north west parts of the wave.



Does anyone agree?

By the way this is as I see it right now. Things could change over the next couple of days as the wave moves into the Caribbean.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yep just as expected this system has dry air on all sides. The tutt is nosing over the eastern caribbean pushing up a the Anticyclone, which is over this system, with 40 knot shear at 18 north/57 to 62 west. Which you would think would be a faverable outflow jet for this system. With 5 to 10 knot shear over it(LLC) which is faverable enough.

I think dry air is moving into the mid levels(Which is coming from the dry air around the system). Which is killing the convection. Also with the system is moving to fast to the west 15 to 20 mph...Which of course is not helping with closing this off totally. 1# Means convection can't punch through the stable layer(Cape) of dry air(Which keeps convection,thunderstorms form forming). 2# The system stays weak with less rising air then normal with out a totally closed LLC. In the fact that the system is moving fast.



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.htm

Understand now?

[SouthFloridawx]

Some 00Z Guidance for ya.

[cjrciadt]

All the guidance sends it thru Cycloneye's way.

[cheezyWXguy]

if it takes the BAMM track, as long as it stays alive, it could make it to the guld and thats when the real action begins

[WindRunner]

if it takes the BAMM track, as long as it stays alive, it could make it to the guld and thats when the real action begins

Count on it following a more southerly track as the mid-level currents are not steering this system. Note the BAMD(eep) takes the system well east of the Bahamas, the BAMM(edium) towards the straits, so a shallower run would probably take the system on something just south of Dennis' track from last year. And since the UKMET and GFDL (the only models listed that keep track of intensity with position) are not being run, all of these tracks are probably too far to the north, as they assume this is a deeper and better established system.

[vaffie]

Count on it following a more southerly track as the mid-level currents are not steering this system. Note the BAMD(eep) takes the system well east of the Bahamas, the BAMM(edium) towards the straits, so a shallower run would probably take the system on something just south of Dennis' track from last year. And since the UKMET and GFDL (the only models listed that keep track of intensity with position) are not being run, all of these tracks are probably too far to the north, as they assume this is a deeper and better established system.

Like windrunner's saying, the more like a wave it behaves, the more southerly the track is going to be. And it's more like a wave than a closed system. Again, as someone else said, the BAM models are not dynamic--they assume that the present setup will remain the same--i.e., they are not seeing the tropical wave in the western Caribbean moving NW into the Gulf only to be replaced by a stronger Bermuda High that will keep 93L chugging westward. This system is definitely a Caribbean system--the question though is how much of it will survive the shear in the Caribbean. If it makes it and enters the Gulf, it could be a storm to reckon with--because the Gulf is very storm-ready right now.

[wxman57]

if it takes the BAMM track, as long as it stays alive, it could make it to the guld and thats when the real action begins

I'm still going left of the extrapolated track, not north of 15N until it passes the DR and a few degrees south of Jamaica. I don't think the model see the building ridge in its path. They BAM models see the current weakness in the NE Caribbean but don't "know" that will be changing.

[CHRISTY]

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS
TIME...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BRING BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

10:30 NHChttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[Weatherfreak14]

Well, I'm heading to cocoa beach to surf for the 4yh of july week and I wwas wondering if this will affect flordia within that time frame?

[mvtrucking]

QuikScat: 8:42 pm(01:42 UTC)

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_1.html

[HurricaneHunter914]

The thing went poof.

[cheezyWXguy]

this is looking rapidly worse and worse...although im not willing to give up on it yet...I still expect another flare-up at least close to the center by daybreak