INVEST 93L Comments Thread #1

[gatorcane]

if thats true than the pressures probably aroundd 1012mb...this thing already looks like a TD, maybe even a weak TS

I agree I say it is a TD right now but we have no way to know for sure without recon, ship reports, or buoys nearby.

[Dean4Storms]

If it is not an LLC it is the longest running waterspout I've ever seen!!!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

You would expect east wind any north of the LLC. 22 knots winds already it would not blow my world if this was already a 40 mph tropical storm. Iris was upgraded to a tropical storm looking like this doe's.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

You would expect east wind any north of the LLC. 22 knots winds already it would not blow my world if this was already a 40 mph tropical storm. Iris was upgraded to a tropical storm looking like this doe's.

[gatorcane]

prediction: NHC 5:30 TWO will say something like:

the tropical wave east of the windward islands has become better organized today and slow development is possible over the next couple of days....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The nhc will cut in paste there earlier TWO. I don't expect them to care about it as its east of the islands in only one system tropical storm has ever formed out there. With only a few tropical depressions.

[gatorcane]

The nhc will cut in paste there earlier TWO. I don't expect them to care about it as its east of the islands in only one system tropical storm has ever formed out there. With only a few tropical depressions.

I just hope folks in the Leeward Islands aren't caught off guard by higher winds than expected....we really don't know how high the wind gusts are in 93L - i'm guessing they are up to 35-40mph but that would be my guess.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I was watching my tape of tropical depression 2 of 2003 I believe. On the weather channel tropical update in only one dot was east of the island for June.

[Derek Ortt]

I am able to zoom in very closely on GARP, and was not able to close off the circulation. It has a storm relative, but not an earth relative circulation, and the convective activity leaves a LOT to be desired

[CHRISTY]

Convection has increased this afternoon with 93L/94L because shear has dropped to today from 20 knots to 10 knots...but i will note the lastest models ive been lookin at say shear will stay low for another 2 to maybe 3 days,and should allow for some organization to take place.but by late week shear is expected to increase so it might end up being somewhat of a struggle for this wave in the coming days. chrisy

Here is a IR image of 93L...

[GeneratorPower]

Seems the greatest potential for this is going to be several days down the road.

[gatorcane]

I am able to zoom in very closely on GARP, and was not able to close off the circulation. It has a storm relative, but not an earth relative circulation, and the convective activity leaves a LOT to be desired

What is the difference between a storm relative and earth relative circulation?

[Derek Ortt]

that little feature appears to be a vorticity maximum, which is common in these poorly organized systems

[Derek Ortt]

storm relative means it has a closed circulation when excluding the motion of the storm (we are traveling with the storm at the same velocity)

earth relative means that we can observe a closed circulation from a stationary vantage point

[crown]

There is a NOAA buoy achored at 14.50 N 53.02 W which is about 10 miles west of the axis of this wave and it is recording easterly winds only. Wind speed is about 19 kts with 1-minute wind speed of 21.8 kts.

At this time development seems very slow. If there was a strong low pressure area then the winds would have been variable NE to SE.

See: http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

[x-y-no]

I am able to zoom in very closely on GARP, and was not able to close off the circulation. It has a storm relative, but not an earth relative circulation, and the convective activity leaves a LOT to be desired

OK, thanks for the reply.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Looks like this year we'll have a slower start to the season, which should help people relax before August comes.

[stormernie]

This LLC is going to fast to build any convention. If you notice on the loops it has run away from any and all convention that has developed.

If it's going to develop it has to put on the brakes at say no more than 15 mph.

[x-y-no]

Looks like this year we'll have a slower start to the season, which should help people relax before August comes.

We'll see ...

I seem to remember some "this season is a dud" type posts last year before the real excitement started in July.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Convection is building over and to the east of the LLC/v-max. But yes its moving a little fast. Even if the the west winds not there give it a few more hours.