INVEST 93L Comments Thread #1

x-y-no · #341 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:03 pm

I hope ya'll will forgive me for posting a large number of images, but I wanted to indicate to Derek where I think I see a surface circulation so he can let me know why I'm wrong (if I am - I seriously am still here to learn and Derek is definitly one I try to learn from).

so here's the visible sattelite images from 16:15Z to 19:15Z with the suspect area circled:

It sure looks like a surface circulation to me. Extremely small, but it sure looks closed.

Am I wrong?

TS Zack · #342 Postby **TS Zack** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:05 pm

Emily should have been downgraded when it was just East of the Islands last year? Then it became a Cat 5.

So yea, think out of the box.

#343 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:09 pm

Yes I agree about the LLC, there is also a prominent counterclockwise twirl that you can see on the visibles.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #344 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:10 pm

Shear is decreasing over this system at 10 knots. While there is a shear max at 18 north of 40 knots. Overall the shear over the system is 5 to 10 knots.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #345 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:10 pm

Shear is decreasing over this system at 10 knots. While there is a shear max at 18 north of 40 knots. Overall the shear over the system is 5 to 10 knots.

#346 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:11 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Shear is decreasing over this system at 10 knots. While there is a shear max at 18 north of 40 knots. Overall the shear over the system is 5 to 10 knots.

so could we see some slow development of 93L then Matt?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #347 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:14 pm

Very much so...The LLC is very small but has started to develop some deep convection over it. Outflow seems to be forming with a weak Anticyclone. I say it has a good chance at becoming something. Right now it is moving so fast to the west that the quickscats can't find a west wind=is why derek thinks its not closed. I believe its closed an is developing deep convection. I think we will see a depression maybe a tropical storm over the next 24 hours if this keeps up.(My option not the nhc's)

#348 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:15 pm

I'll say this right now, it is a good possibility that we have a TD out there right now with the burst of convection you know there has to be some 30-35mph winds on the eastern side and there is NO doubt in my mind or eyes that I see a LLC spinning its brains out at the surface!!!

Quikscat is not so reliable with a small LLC moving along at this clip.

cheezyWXguy · #349 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:15 pm

im not sure about 24 hours but in the next 1-2 days i think its certainly possible

#350 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:16 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:I'll say this right now, it is a good possibility that we have a TD out there right now with the burst of convection you know there has to be some 30-35mph winds on the eastern side and there is NO doubt in my mind or eyes that I see a LLC spinning its brains out at the surface!!!

Most people say it will stay weak so South Florida will just get some rain out of it....I hope they are right :eek:

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #351 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:17 pm

Dean4storm, I agree. I look at systems that have gotten recon in upgraded in the past to say this. But if this was in the gulf or Western caribbean or even where 91L is it would be Depression maybe tropical storm.

#352 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:19 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Dean4storm, I agree. I look at systems that have gotten recon in upgraded in the past to say this. But if this was in the gulf or Western caribbean or even where 91L is it would be Depression maybe tropical storm.

People cannot deny the fact that something is going on with 93L even though it is June and we should not have any activity where it currently is. Sat presentation is more impressive than Alberto and 91L and convection is now right now the immediate east side of the center.

Anybody have any buoy reports out there?

Also it is moving into an area of higher SSTs so I think that is what is causing the burst in convection:

75% we have Beryl in a few days.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #353 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:21 pm

No buoys yet...But convection is blowing right over the LLC. I think we will have t numbers by tonight coming near 1.5 to 2.0.(Around 12 hours from now)

#354 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:22 pm

I am curious if the new model runs will start to pick up on this invest and develop it down the road...

cheezyWXguy · #355 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:23 pm

Its a race between this and 91L for who get beryl and who gets chris...I honestly hope this is chris because I want my name to be the one used on the bigger storm...besides, im sick of always being below my mom's name(debby, wich was a CAT 1 in 2000 while i was only a TS)

#356 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:23 pm

Agree Matt, I've seen hundreds if not thousands of LLC's on Sat. imagery during my 35 yrs of this and this is one. This looks like any LLC I've seen run out from under its upper support as a hurricane from being sheared and this looks no different. It would be great if we could get a ship report going through it.

#357 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:24 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Agree Matt, I've seen hundreds if not thousands of LLC's on Sat. imagery during my 35 yrs of this and this is one. This looks like any LLC I've seen run out from under its upper support as a hurricane from being sheared and this looks no different. It would be great if we could get a ship report going through it.

looks like the LLC that x-y-no pointed out earlier is still in tact and moving WNW. Do you guys see it. There is also some deep convection right over and on the eastern side of the LLC.

mtm4319 · #358 Postby **mtm4319** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:29 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Agree Matt, I've seen hundreds if not thousands of LLC's on Sat. imagery during my 35 yrs of this and this is one. This looks like any LLC I've seen run out from under its upper support as a hurricane from being sheared and this looks no different. It would be great if we could get a ship report going through it.

Here's the only buoy in the general vicinity:

East winds at 22mph, pressure 1016mb.

#359 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:30 pm

mtm4319 wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:Agree Matt, I've seen hundreds if not thousands of LLC's on Sat. imagery during my 35 yrs of this and this is one. This looks like any LLC I've seen run out from under its upper support as a hurricane from being sheared and this looks no different. It would be great if we could get a ship report going through it.

Here's the only buoy in the general vicinity:

East winds at 22mph, pressure 1016mb.

thanks. It is still well N of the possible LLC and it is still seeing winds of 22mph with higher gusts I bet.

cheezyWXguy · #360 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:31 pm

if thats true than the pressures probably aroundd 1012mb...this thing already looks like a TD, maybe even a weak TS

INVEST 93L Comments Thread #1

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