INVEST 93L Comments Thread #1

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Heck if this was where 91L was it would be Beryl. But this is really going to have to form convection in show up on the quickscats moving at 15 to 20 mph to get named.

[mvtrucking]

QuikScat:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_1.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The little swirl will probally be gone tomorrow morning. More than likely I say. What about you all?

Disagree this is likely the one I spoted yesterday.

[gatorcane]

Close up model tracks for 93L...

looks like that model puts it into the Florida Straits or just south of Cuba. I hope that doesn't verify

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'm giving this a 50% chance of becoming Beryl since this has a visible LLC and 91L a 30% chance of becoming Beryl since there is no LLC and it is about to hit land.

[gatorcane]

I'm giving this a 50% chance of becoming Beryl since this has a visible LLC and 91L a 30% chance of becoming Beryl since there is no LLC and it is about to hit land.

It's moving WNW so it will miss South America, assuming you are not talking about 91L

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't like the double standard. I feel that this would be a depression or maybe Beryl if it was where 91L was. But that is my option. I feel that if convection can keep forming that there is a 80 percent chance for Beryl from this. In if 91l can move more eastward in stay more over water then it may have a chance.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Yup this Invest has a bigger chance of becoming Beryl now than 91L cause 91L is moving into cooler water, has no LLC and is about to hit land. 93L is about to move into warmer water, has an LLC, and isn't about to hit land.

[gatorcane]

I don't like the double standard. I feel that this would be a depression or maybe Beryl if it was where 91L was. But that is my option. I feel that if convection can keep forming that there is a 80 percent chance for Beryl from this. In if 91l can move more eastward in stay more over water then it may have a chance.

It's unusual that something forms this far east this time of year so I think the NHC is counting on it going poof. If it were August we would have a storm or even a hurricane already.

I give it a 75% chance of becoming Beryl....in the Caribbean

[gatorcane]

I think the islands may see some serious squalls from 93L as the rate things are going - may catch some off guard...it's because 93L is moving so fast and there is some vorticity, while the convection seems to be good at times also.

I think soon we'll see the NHC say:

"slow development is possible over the next several days"

[Weatherboy1]

Just FYI, Miami NWS mentions this feature continuing as a wave into our general area, though not an organized system. Certainly bears watching if it can slow down a bit and get its act together ...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS BEING WATCHED ALONG 51W AND ACCORDING TO GFS AND WITH AN WEST MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 KTS, THIS WAVE SHOULD BE ON OUR DOORSTEP SUNDAY AND COULD PROVIDE ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. TOO SOON TO PUT POPS TO LIKELY ATTM FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT COULD BE VERY POSSIBLE THE CLOSER WE GET TO THE EVENT.

[greels]

Hmmm......so I "might expect" some rainfall here in the islands sometime over the weekend?

[CHRISTY]

Guys things are going to start to get rather interesting with 93L...this is from Jeff Masters blog.

Disturbance east of the Windward Islands looking healthier

A tropical disturbance about 500 miles east of the southern Windward Islands is tracking west-northwest at 20 mph. This system does have a surface circulation one can see on visible satellite imagery. Heavy thunderstorm activity on the east side of the center of circulation has become more concentrated this afternoon; wind shear from the west is keeping thunderstorm activity from building on the west side of the center. Wind shear has dropped considerably today, from 20 knots to 10 knots, and the latest computer model forecasts indicate that wind shear may remain low for the next two days, allowing some further slow organization. The system will bring gusty winds and heavy rain showers to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Wednesday. By Friday, the computer models are indicating that the disturbance will encounter a region of high wind shear that will make it difficult for the system to survive.

SOURSE...
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=394&tstamp=200606

[gatorcane]

Just FYI, Miami NWS mentions this feature continuing as a wave into our general area, though not an organized system. Certainly bears watching if it can slow down a bit and get its act together ...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS BEING WATCHED ALONG 51W AND ACCORDING TO GFS AND WITH AN WEST MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 KTS, THIS WAVE SHOULD BE ON OUR DOORSTEP SUNDAY AND COULD PROVIDE ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. TOO SOON TO PUT POPS TO LIKELY ATTM FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT COULD BE VERY POSSIBLE THE CLOSER WE GET TO THE EVENT.

Gosh I hope not, either way it looks like South Florida will again feel some impact from another tropical system - even if it is just increased SE winds and some Atlantic squalls.

[Derek Ortt]

there is no surface circulation with that feature. It is a wave axis. Like the Carolina disturbance, this is moving just a tad bit too fast to close off, this time on the southern side

[x-y-no]

there is no surface circulation with that feature. It is a wave axis. Like the Carolina disturbance, this is moving just a tad bit too fast to close off, this time on the southern side

Well, I'm extremely hesitant to argue with you. Rather than an argument, let me say I'm confused because I thought there was clearly a (very small) surface circulation where I indicated in my post on page 16 of this thread.

At any rate, the area in question is now covered by the new burst of convection, so I haven't a clue if it's there underneath or not.

[drezee]

there is no surface circulation with that feature. It is a wave axis. Like the Carolina disturbance, this is moving just a tad bit too fast to close off, this time on the southern side

It may be better if your preface a statment like that with IMO. After our conversation yesterday, I received a email from Stacy Stewart to the contray. The NHC beleives that it is a surface circulation.

[drezee]

From yesterday:

There is also another impressive wave with a tight LLCC near 7N 53W, but it has not had persisent convection, so that system also does not qualify as a TC.

Respectfully,

Stacy Stewart
Senior Hurricane Specialist
NOAA TPC/NHC, Miami, FL
=================================================================

[Dean4Storms]

there is no surface circulation with that feature. It is a wave axis. Like the Carolina disturbance, this is moving just a tad bit too fast to close off, this time on the southern side

You must of not used your glasses, there is a LL circulation clearly visible with this wave and it is not a wave axis. A wave axis does not spin 360 degrees continuously for over a day as this one does in this loop Derek. Now it is devoid of convection over it at the moment, but the LL clouds swirling is not a wave axis.

Check the Goes East Visible Floater here and it is plain to see.


http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsd ... PICAL.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would never trust the quickscat, when a system is moving over the this area at more then 15 mph. That is a closed LLC because the lower clouds are the ones moving around. Also convection has started to blow up.