Invest 91L Recon Thread

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ok Southwest winds but no west winds. Still searching.

[SouthFloridawx]

There are going to be quite a few people eating crow.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I went this thing to go east-northeast out into the Atlatnic so it can develop.

[NCHurricane]

I went this thing to go east-northeast out into the Atlatnic so it can develop.

I would have to agree with you, but for a different reason. I've had enough rain in the last week.

Chuck Copeland
http://www.nchurricane.com

[WindRunner]

Oh, I forgot to say, mtm, if you want me to help you with any of this, just let me know. I am back for the afternoon now.

[mtm4319]

157
SXXX50 KNHC 271703
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 21 KNHC
1653. 3346N 07644W 00286 0019 170 047 186 186 048 00307 0000000000
1654 3347N 07643W 00284 0022 169 048 198 198 048 00309 0000000000
1654. 3349N 07642W 00285 0025 169 046 214 214 048 00312 0000000000
1655 3350N 07640W 00282 0026 170 045 210 210 046 00310 0000000000
1655. 3351N 07639W 00284 0027 163 041 212 212 044 00313 0000000000
1656 3353N 07638W 00282 0027 154 038 218 218 038 00312 0000000000
1656. 3354N 07636W 00287 0028 155 042 216 216 043 00317 0000000000
1657 3355N 07635W 00284 0028 156 043 214 214 044 00314 0000000000
1657. 3356N 07634W 00283 0029 159 043 210 210 044 00315 0000000000
1658 3358N 07632W 00284 0030 161 044 208 208 045 00317 0000000000
1658. 3359N 07631W 00284 0030 162 044 206 206 045 00316 0000000000
1659 3400N 07630W 00284 0029 165 045 206 206 045 00315 0000000000
1659. 3402N 07628W 00285 0029 167 047 200 200 048 00316 0000000000
1700 3403N 07627W 00286 0031 167 049 200 200 049 00319 0000000000
1700. 3404N 07626W 00283 0031 170 045 180 180 048 00316 0000000100
1701 3406N 07624W 00286 0031 163 040 202 202 041 00320 0000000000
1701. 3407N 07623W 00279 0032 150 039 230 230 040 00313 0000000000
1702 3408N 07622W 00287 0032 150 039 230 230 040 00322 0000000000
1702. 3410N 07621W 00284 0032 151 039 230 230 040 00318 0000000000
1703 3411N 07619W 00283 0033 151 039 230 230 040 00318 0000000000

[mtm4319]

Oh, I forgot to say, mtm, if you want me to help you with any of this, just let me know. I am back for the afternoon now.

Ok, thanks. A lot of times I forget to check for the vortex, so you can post that if it comes up (or other things like dropsondes, etc.)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think we got a LLC. I took a better look at the obs when it went to southwest to south to south-southeast. Maybe we will see.

[terstorm1012]

still need that north wind...

[Derek Ortt]

its northerly winds that are in question

of course all components of southerly winds will be found, its moving from south to north

[WindRunner]

OK, will do.

And a point of reference for people - the end of that last set (the 1703 point) is only 30 miles SSE of Cape Lookout, NC.

[curtadams]

Well, it's obviously tropical and it's obviously a storm. It would be a bit odd if definitions caused to be not be classified as a tropical storm.

[HurricaneHunter914]

So all this thing needs is a closed LLC and we have Beryl?!

[tallywx]

its northerly winds that are in question

of course all components of southerly winds will be found, its moving from south to north

Question: say a closed counterclockwise circulation static within fluid surroundings is spinning at 25 kts. Then move that circulation within the fluid northward at 30 kts. Why would northerly winds be found to the left of that circulation, considering that the mean relative motion created would actually more than cancel out the observed northerly component and create a southerly wind of 5 kts.

Is the above description correct based on the principles of physics? In that case, wouldn't the closed circulation still be considered closed even though actual northerly winds aren't found?

[clfenwi]

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: INVEST (BBL)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF305
Observation Number: 09
Time: 1708Z
Latitude: 34.4°N
Longitude: 76.1°W
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 900 feet
Flight level wind: SE (140°) @ 43 mph
Temperature: 72°F
Dewpoint: 72°F
Weather: Thunderstorm
Sea level pressure: 1016 mb
Surface Wind: SE (140°) @ 23 mph
Remarks: None

[Lowpressure]

So all this thing needs is a closed LLC and we have Beryl?!

It would appear to be the case. Winds are high enough as recorded by Hunter. North wind the question.

[Derek Ortt]

must be closed earth relative, not storm relative

[CrazyC83]

If it has a LLC, it is Tropical Storm Beryl...

[mtm4319]

045
SXXX50 KNHC 271713
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 22 KNHC
1703. 3412N 07618W 00284 0033 148 036 228 228 038 00319 0000000000
1704 3413N 07617W 00284 0034 146 038 226 226 038 00320 0000000000
1704. 3415N 07616W 00283 0034 147 038 226 226 039 00319 0000000000
1705 3416N 07614W 00286 0033 147 038 226 226 039 00322 0000000000
1705. 3417N 07613W 00283 0034 150 039 226 226 039 00319 0000000000
1706 3418N 07612W 00283 0034 148 037 226 226 038 00320 0000000000
1706. 3419N 07611W 00285 0035 148 039 226 226 040 00322 0000000000
1707 3421N 07609W 00285 0034 148 038 226 226 038 00322 0000000000
1707. 3422N 07608W 00282 0035 148 038 226 226 039 00318 0000000000
1708 3423N 07607W 00286 0035 149 038 224 224 039 00324 0000000000
1708. 3424N 07606W 00284 0036 146 037 224 224 038 00322 0000000000
1709 3426N 07604W 00331 0035 148 037 220 220 037 00368 0000000000
1709. 3427N 07604W 00528 0045 150 040 204 204 044 00573 0000000000
1710 3429N 07604W 00728 0056 152 041 198 184 043 00784 0000000000
1710. 3431N 07605W 00953 0064 157 040 186 160 041 01017 0000000000
1711 3433N 07604W 01204 0077 165 044 170 148 044 01279 0000000000
1711. 3433N 07602W 01441 0091 170 038 148 148 040 01530 0000000000
1712 3433N 07601W 01299 0101 172 039 158 148 040 01399 0000000000
1712. 3432N 07559W 01131 0089 168 037 174 148 039 01219 0000000000
1713 3431N 07600W 00953 0083 155 033 182 170 035 01035 0000000000

Winds still SSE to S.

[Cyclenall]

Sweet, the tropics are throwing us fast ones right and left. Come on closed LLC... I get the feeling Beryl isn't far away this time.