Invest 91L Recon Thread

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#81 Postby WindRunner » Tue Jun 27, 2006 11:49 am

Windsurfer_NYC wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:What winds must they find to classify this as a TD?


I don't think there is a official minimum threshold.. the main thing they need to see is a closed circulation at the surface.


Yes, and especially in this circumstance. When this system is this close to the US mainland, they will classify this a TD the moment they find a LLC.
0 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34093
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#82 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jun 27, 2006 11:50 am

If they find it, you'd probably see a Special Advisory issued immediately.
0 likes   
Top
mtm4319
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1537
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 2:47 am
Location: Mobile, AL

#83 Postby mtm4319 » Tue Jun 27, 2006 11:50 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#84 Postby clfenwi » Tue Jun 27, 2006 11:57 am

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: INVEST (BBL)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF305
Observation Number: 08
Time: 1647Z
Latitude: 33.5°N
Longitude: 77.0°W
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 900 feet
Flight level wind: SW (220°) @ 33 mph
Temperature: 72°F
Dewpoint: 72°F
Weather: Thunderstorm
Sea level pressure: 1015 mb
Surface Wind: S (190°) @ 23 mph
Remarks: None
0 likes   
Top
mtm4319
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1537
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 2:47 am
Location: Mobile, AL

#85 Postby mtm4319 » Tue Jun 27, 2006 11:57 am

548
SXXX50 KNHC 271653
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 20 KNHC
1643. 3315N 07705W 00283 0029 207 026 216 216 027 00315 0000000000
1644 3317N 07705W 00284 0029 209 026 216 216 026 00315 0000000000
1644. 3318N 07704W 00285 0028 208 026 216 216 027 00315 0000000000
1645 3320N 07704W 00283 0028 208 027 218 218 028 00313 0000000000
1645. 3322N 07703W 00285 0027 210 029 220 220 029 00314 0000000000
1646 3323N 07702W 00286 0026 213 029 216 216 029 00314 0000000000
1646. 3325N 07702W 00281 0026 212 028 218 218 029 00309 0000000000
1647 3327N 07701W 00285 0025 215 030 216 216 031 00312 0000000000
1647. 3329N 07700W 00284 0023 216 030 216 216 031 00309 0000000000
1648 3330N 07700W 00284 0020 222 034 218 218 035 00306 0000000000
1648. 3332N 07658W 00286 0019 217 035 216 216 036 00306 0000000000
1649 3333N 07657W 00283 0018 214 037 216 216 038 00303 0000000000
1649. 3335N 07655W 00285 0016 210 043 216 216 045 00303 0000000000
1650 3336N 07654W 00283 0015 207 047 214 214 048 00300 0000000000
1650. 3338N 07653W 00284 0014 202 049 216 216 051 00299 0000000000
1651 3339N 07651W 00287 0013 191 053 214 214 054 00303 0000000000
1651. 3341N 07650W 00281 0014 182 054 216 216 055 00297 0000000000
1652 3342N 07648W 00282 0017 175 050 212 212 053 00301 0000000000
1652. 3343N 07647W 00285 0018 163 047 190 190 051 00305 0000000100
1653 3345N 07646W 00285 0017 163 048 188 188 050 00304 0000000000
Last edited by mtm4319 on Tue Jun 27, 2006 12:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
storms NC
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 247
Age: 69
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:41 pm
Location: Coast of NC & southwest coast of Fla

#86 Postby storms NC » Tue Jun 27, 2006 11:57 am

When will we get the word if it is a TD or TS?
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#87 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Jun 27, 2006 11:58 am

If this was not moving so fast this would develop you can see convection bursting big time. But but because its moving so fast its not going to have any time. Also we have to watch if it can move off shore.

I say based on wind data if if they find a LLC maybe a 25 to 30 knot depression.
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#88 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Jun 27, 2006 11:59 am

Holy shoot 55 knots I take back my depression this would be a 40 to 45 knot tropical storm if they find a LLC.
0 likes   
Top
StormScanWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1242
Joined: Mon Dec 05, 2005 7:53 pm

#89 Postby StormScanWx » Tue Jun 27, 2006 11:59 am

12: 16:49:00; 33.6°N 77°W; PA: 928ft; D-Val: 59ft; Wnd: SW (214°) @ 43mph (Max: 44mph); T: 71F; D: 71F; Radar Alt: 994ft
13: 16:49:30; 33.6°N 76.9°W; PA: 935ft; D-Val: 52ft; Wnd: SSW (210°) @ 50mph (Max: 52mph); T: 71F; D: 71F; Radar Alt: 994ft
14: 16:50:00; 33.6°N 76.9°W; PA: 928ft; D-Val: 49ft; Wnd: SSW (207°) @ 54mph (Max: 55mph); T: 71F; D: 71F; Radar Alt: 984ft
15: 16:50:30; 33.6°N 76.9°W; PA: 932ft; D-Val: 46ft; Wnd: SSW (202°) @ 56mph (Max: 59mph); T: 71F; D: 71F; Radar Alt: 981ft
16: 16:51:00; 33.7°N 76.9°W; PA: 942ft; D-Val: 43ft; Wnd: S (191°) @ 61mph (Max: 62mph); T: 71F; D: 71F; Radar Alt: 994ft
17: 16:51:30; 33.7°N 76.8°W; PA: 922ft; D-Val: 46ft; Wnd: S (182°) @ 62mph (Max: 63mph); T: 71F; D: 71F; Radar Alt: 974ft
18: 16:52:00; 33.7°N 76.8°W; PA: 925ft; D-Val: 56ft; Wnd: S (175°) @ 58mph (Max: 61mph); T: 70F; D: 70F; Radar Alt: 988ft
19: 16:52:30; 33.7°N 76.8°W; PA: 935ft; D-Val: 59ft; Wnd: SSE (163°) @ 54mph (Max: 59mph); T: 66F; D: ****; Radar Alt: 1001ft
20: 16:53:00; 33.8°N 76.8°W; PA: 935ft; D-Val: 56ft; Wnd: SSE (163°) @ 55mph (Max: 58mph); T: 66F; D: 66F; Radar Alt: 997ft
!!TROPICAL STORM BERYL??!!
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#90 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Jun 27, 2006 11:59 am

that latest recon ob shows 55KT flight level winds


its either a TS or a powerful disturbance
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
NONAME
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 373
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2006 8:15 am
Location: Where the Wind Blows

#91 Postby NONAME » Tue Jun 27, 2006 12:00 pm

Where did ya get the 55kt from
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#92 Postby WindRunner » Tue Jun 27, 2006 12:00 pm

Converts to 44kt surface winds. Now we need a vortex!
0 likes   
Top
mtm4319
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1537
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 2:47 am
Location: Mobile, AL

#93 Postby mtm4319 » Tue Jun 27, 2006 12:00 pm

Image

Flight level translates to 44 knots at the surface.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WmE
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 696
Age: 36
Joined: Sat Jun 17, 2006 11:23 am
Location: Vienna, Austria

#94 Postby WmE » Tue Jun 27, 2006 12:00 pm

55 knots?? :eek:
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#95 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Jun 27, 2006 12:01 pm

Appears to be no west winds with 297 degrees the closes.
0 likes   
Top
Weatherfreak000

#96 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Tue Jun 27, 2006 12:01 pm

Hot Damn, I think that definitely might be the edge we were looking for...



Hey Beryl you out there girl? lol.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthFloridawx

#97 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Jun 27, 2006 12:01 pm

That would be interesting to find out if it has a closed circulation. I know there have been a lot of people saying there was no way this could be a tropical depression or storm.
0 likes   
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6685
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

#98 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jun 27, 2006 12:02 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:that latest recon ob shows 55KT flight level winds


its either a TS or a powerful disturbance



:lol:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Aquawind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6714
Age: 62
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
Location: Salisbury, NC
Contact:
Contact Aquawind

#99 Postby Aquawind » Tue Jun 27, 2006 12:02 pm

No Vortex yet.. I keep hitting refresh.. :lol:
0 likes   
Top
Weatherfreak000

#100 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Tue Jun 27, 2006 12:02 pm

i swore i'd eat my shoe if 91L developed lol.



I know Brent knows that, guess i'm getting my crow...
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: gib, Google [Bot] and 27 guests