91L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Ivan14]

I know it is not a hurricane. I was just shocked at the way it looks. I figured that 91L was dead.

[AnnularCane]

I can't find 91L. Where is it? I think I lost track of it. It wouldn't happen to be that low off the Carolinas, would it?

[Derek Ortt]

thats the one thing we need recon to confirm

its the northerly wind component in question

[cjrciadt]

I can't find 91L. Where is it? I think I lost track of it. It wouldn't happen to be that low off the Carolinas, would it?

Yes that's it.

[shaggy]

well we are sitting at over 10 inches of rain for the month so any more rain is just bad news here.I am no pro met but if there is a small LLC under the deepest storms does that mean that the winds away from that complex of storms also have to cyclonic turning meaning that there may be N or NW just under the storm complex? Any professional help would be great!?Or does it have to always have a large cyclonic envelope?

[tgenius]

Is it possible that it would jump from an invest to a TS and skip TD altogether?

[Derek Ortt]

ABNT20 KNHC 271501
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SMALL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY... AND POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR IT TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED
CIRCULATION EXISTS AT THE SURFACE. RESIDENTS ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED.
EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ONSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA COASTS TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
LESSER ANTILLES ON WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART

[storms NC]

Where well it come a shore at? If I may ask. There is no tracking for it yet

[gatorcane]

ABNT20 KNHC 271501
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SMALL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY... AND POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR IT TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED
CIRCULATION EXISTS AT THE SURFACE. RESIDENTS ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED.
EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ONSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA COASTS TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
LESSER ANTILLES ON WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART

wow Derek that was the earliest I have ever seen the discussion posted....I guess that is because you are an insider!

[Derek Ortt]

its available on Texas A&M and has been for about 10 minutes prior to me posting it

[mtm4319]

wow Derek that was the earliest I have ever seen the discussion posted....I guess that is because you are an insider!

They do post them early sometimes. It's on the NHC site right now.

[Noles2006]

Is it possible that it would jump from an invest to a TS and skip TD altogether?

Yes, it is possible... and, if they do find an LLC, I do believe that is what will happen with this system. If they don't find one, then it will remained unnumbered and unnamed.

[AnnularCane]

I can't find 91L. Where is it? I think I lost track of it. It wouldn't happen to be that low off the Carolinas, would it?

Yes that's it.

Thanks. All this time I thought it was over Florida, even though I couldn't really see anything there.

[bigmoney755]

wow Derek that was the earliest I have ever seen the discussion posted....I guess that is because you are an insider!

its been available for several minutes... http://weather.net-waves.com/tropics.php

[HurricaneHunter914]

Even if it forms it needs to hurry up and become a TS because its going to hit the coast in 7 HOURS! I looked at the report and it said that 91L was about 140 Miles away from the Carolinas and that the invest was moving at 20 mph. If you do your math right then this system has only about 7 hours.

[wxman57]

Here's a new surface plot. The mid-level circulation center is moving over a buoy now. That buoy still h as SE winds at 15 kts. No evidence of anything but SE winds in the buoy reports offshore. Lowest pressure remains inland over S. Carolina. I agree, it LOOKS better than it ever did. If not for the surface observations which indicate that there appears to be no LLC, the satellite animations make it look like a TD.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/91Lb.gif

[terstorm1012]

Agreed with you there WXman

I did see an ESE wind near Morehead City. But still no northerly wind component.

[wxman57]

Even if it forms it needs to hurry up and become a TS because its going to hit the coast in 7 HOURS! I looked at the report and it said that 91L was about 140 Miles away from the Carolinas and that the invest was moving at 20 mph. If you do your math right then this system has only about 7 hours.

As I measure the center of the mid-level circulation, it it about 80 nautical miles from the coast and moving at about 20 kts. That's 4 hours from land at 10am CDT.

[no advance]

Sure looks like a td to me.

[JonathanBelles]

how many std's become TD's?