Special Tropical Disturbance Statement!

[Thunder44]

000
WONT41 KNHC 271133
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
730 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION INDICATE THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED
CIRCULATION EXISTS AT THE SURFACE.

RESIDENTS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED WITH LITTLE NOTICE. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
ONSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[CHRISTY]

wow!so might just end up with 2 named systems in june after all.lets see what the recon finds.

[SCMedic]

Looks damn healthy this morning right off our coast. Looks like it has LLC as it's wrapping up pretty quickly..

[caneman]

Didn't someone say this had no chance

[Windtalker1]

idn't someone say this had no chance [/quote] about 99.9% of the people on this board.

[ThunderMate]

DUDE!!!! I said this had a chance about an hour ago...this baby gonna come right over my house!!!

[mtm4319]

Didn't someone say this had no chance

Well, I won't name names, but I did hear the number 1.0 x 10^(-9) being thrown about.

[mtm4319]

They've just adjusted the floater northward.

[Starburst]

Well I must admit JB at Accuweather nailed this one, he said this would happen in his discussion yesterday.

[SCMedic]

Gulf Stream is incredible...Now why can't it be about 200 miles SW and heading right for ME!

[Aquawind]

Not far enough north though..

[Starburst]

yeah your right, but not to bad I must say

[angelwing]

OK, someone tell me if this is one of the other blobs that everyone is watching or did this just come out of nowhere????

[mtm4319]

OK, someone tell me if this is one of the other blobs that everyone is watching or did this just come out of nowhere????

Pretty sure this is 91L.

[Swimdude]

Ooooh the IR is looking pretty good. That actually makes two Invests in a row that have formed.

So much for that 1 in 10 waves actually form huh?

I'm glad I got up early this morning!

[Starburst]

yep 91L it is

[SCMedic]

Anyone think it'll get named before landfall in NC? I'm saying yes, as it's looking like it's getting more and more wrapped up with each new frame..

[Aquawind]

Pretty good convection ball this morning.. I can't see much of low level circulation under it though.. RECON yeah baby!

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

000
NOUS42 KNHC 261400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 26 JUN 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JUN 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-026

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA.
FLIGHT ONE
A. 27/1600Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 27/1400Z
D. 33.0N 78.5W
E. 27/1530Z TO 2000Z
F. SFC TO 10000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NEGATIVE AS SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE INLAND AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.

3. MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 26/1800Z CANCELLED BY NHC AT 26/1230Z.

[wzrgirl1]

so have we concluded that this is 91L?

[mtm4319]

Ooooh the IR is looking pretty good. That actually makes two Invests in a row that have formed.

So much for that 1 in 10 waves actually form huh?

I'm glad I got up early this morning!

Well, it hasn't formed yet... but my guess is more often than not, systems that get STDSs go on to become TDs. The last STDS I remember was for Tammy last year.

Then again, STDSs can be issued to inform the public that a TC is not forming.