91L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[gatorcane]

91L is looking rather impressive this evening....based on sat pics and now convection is firing in wider coverage than before.

[spinfan4eva]

It appears a broad circulation has developed offshore Saint Augustine and JB expects this to develop quickly into a Tammy 05 like system and bring some gales and power outages possibly from the carolinas northward. The NHC map http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif says the same thing though they keep it as a developing gale, not a tropical system.

Local met here in Jax also says it appears to be developing:
http://www.fox30online.com/talkingtropi ... 2A7BC49965

A very disorganized area of low pressure continues over Florida & between Florida & the Northern Bahamas. It seems that a single circulation is now trying to take shape just offshore of Melbourne & there's slight potential for some development as it moves northward through Tuesday which would take it east of Jacksonville then onshore in the Carolinas by Tuesday night or so. Any development would not be signficant but could increase seas & the rip current risk a little futher on First Coast beaches as well as possibly set up some rain bands Monday night-Tuesday morning. If banding occurs, there would be the potential for some locally very heavy rain -- especially for coastal counties.

[stormtruth]

Wow do you guys think this can develop? At least it isn't in the gulf!

Absolutely not. Just means rain for the Atlantic coast next 2-3 days.

Probably not would be a better answer. Unless you are God.

[weatherbee1982]

I am with wxman57 on this one. I think the convection that everyone is keying on is really normal convective activity for FL that is enhanced in association with an ULL in the GulfMex just west of the FL peninsula.

[stormtruth]

I am with wxman57 on this one. I think the convection that everyone is keying on is really normal convective activity for FL that is enhanced in association with an ULL in the GulfMex just west of the FL peninsula.

It may not become a tropical depression but it is an unusual situation. The DC area has already broken a rainfall record set by Agnes with more rain on the way.

[spinfan4eva]

Here is the current center of the Broad LLC based on storm movement on radar.

Full size image....
http://s48.photobucket.com/albums/f206/ ... lradar.png

This loop show the bands increasing even at this hour over inland south georgia headed toward northeast florida. Lots of lightning and sig wx alerts issued by NWS Jax.
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_li ... R&loop=yes

[CrazyC83]

How has the Beryl-wannabe been a factor in the Mid-Atlantic flooding?

[NONAME]

How has the Beryl-wannabe been a factor in the Mid-Atlantic flooding?

It has pulled moisture from the Tropics northward.

[AnnularCane]

How has the Beryl-wannabe been a factor in the Mid-Atlantic flooding?

It has pulled moisture from the Tropics northward.

Isn't the flooding mainly due to the stalled front?

[wxman57]

It appears a broad circulation has developed offshore Saint Augustine and JB expects this to develop quickly into a Tammy 05 like system and bring some gales and power outages possibly from the carolinas northward. The NHC map http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif says the same thing though they keep it as a developing gale, not a tropical system.

Local met here in Jax also says it appears to be developing:
http://www.fox30online.com/talkingtropi ... 2A7BC49965

A very disorganized area of low pressure continues over Florida & between Florida & the Northern Bahamas. It seems that a single circulation is now trying to take shape just offshore of Melbourne & there's slight potential for some development as it moves northward through Tuesday which would take it east of Jacksonville then onshore in the Carolinas by Tuesday night or so. Any development would not be signficant but could increase seas & the rip current risk a little futher on First Coast beaches as well as possibly set up some rain bands Monday night-Tuesday morning. If banding occurs, there would be the potential for some locally very heavy rain -- especially for coastal counties.

The only problem with that is the low pressure is not off the east coast of Florida, it's over south-central Georgia. There are some thunderstorms off the east coast of Florida asociated with the upper level low, but pressures there are higher than to the west over Georgia. Not there might be a chance for a secondary low to form offshore and dumbell northward into the NC coast in 24 hours or so, but conditions aloft do not favor tropical development.

[wxman57]

Wow do you guys think this can develop? At least it isn't in the gulf!

Absolutely not. Just means rain for the Atlantic coast next 2-3 days.

Probably not would be a better answer. Unless you are God.

Well, I can't quite make the claim of being God.

[SeaBrz_FL]

And Grandpa was right -- had hellatious (wonderful) windy downpours all day today, and BEST of all -- no leaks on new, repaired, re-repaired roof. Life is good!

Best of luck to members north of here facing possible flooding.


SB

[HurricaneHunter914]

So does this still have a chance to become a TC or is it just a flop at this moment?

[Thunder44]

So does this still have a chance to become a TC or is it just a flop at this moment?

I think it looks very unlikely at this point. Even if another surface low forms out in the Atlantic this morning, upper-level conditions do not look favorable enough for rapid development before it makes landfall over the Carolinas later today or tonight.

[weatherbee1982]

I don't expect anything to develop tropically out of what is off the east coast of FL. The shear is too strong, a trough is nearby, an ULL is to the SW, etc. Even if a surface low were to develop, it would get pulled into the coast before it had a chance to think about a spiral band.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't expect anything to develop tropically out of what is off the east coast of FL. The shear is too strong, a trough is nearby, an ULL is to the SW, etc. Even if a surface low were to develop, it would get pulled into the coast before it had a chance to think about a spiral band.

Your right. The ULL over the northeastern gulf moving northeastward up the southeast quad of the jet. With a weak Anticyclone to the north of the system. Also a ULL is to the east of this. Overall the first ULL is shearing this system at this time.

Between the two ULLs the air rises to form convection/thunderstorms. I do not think this has much chance because of the shearing. Also the MLC that tryed to form with the convection should be inland later today.

I would watch the system at 11 north/46 or so west for development. Which is doe's have a LLC.

[mtm4319]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 270847
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...
GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE.

[ThunderMate]

Look at it now!!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

[Thunder44]

Look at it now!!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

Yes, I've been watching this cluster of thunderstorms since late last night it looks impressive on infrared imagery, but checking some of the buoys around there I don't see any signs of closed surface circulation yet. The main low center still looks to be over SE coast.

[ThunderMate]

here is the IR floater...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html