INVEST 93L Comments Thread #1

[gatorcane]

I'm curious how 93L unfolds today...

[Tampa_God]

Yeah, it does, but it's weak.

[Steve H.]

If your curious to see how 93L unfolds, I think you nailed it on the head. "unfolds" is the key word here

[stormernie]

This system has no LLC and continues to diminsh.

[Tampa_God]

The LLC has some convention forming to the south and east to it. Will this die out or keep the convention? The one above it looks like it's trying to wrap convention aroiund it's center. Could we see TD2 soon?

[drezee]

It is not going to develop in the next 12 hours. The LLC that is Invest 93L is now elongating to the north in response to the low pressure from to the immediate NE. They will come together to make one elogated low tonight. By tomorrow, the low pressure should begin to tighten in response to the ever increasing heat content and gain in latitude. It should be a bonifide tight LLC again in less than 48 hours. At that time, I would guess that if the environment has softened a bit...it should further develop right before or going through the islands.

[ThunderMate]

I pretty much agree.

[Derek Ortt]

this thing is not likely to develop anytime soon. Definately not before moving through the islands.

Also, there does not appear to be a low NE of the system, at least at the surface

[ThunderMate]

yes, but after it reaches the Carribbean what are its chances of becoming healthier?

[Tampa_God]

Now thinking about it, drezee sounds right. Why isn't TWC not talking about this? They are still on 91L most of the time.

[drezee]

this thing is not likely to develop anytime soon. Definately not before moving through the islands.

Also, there does not appear to be a low NE of the system, at least at the surface

I guess it depends on your definition of soon, soon is hard to quantify. My definition is that it can't until at least 48 hours, given the reasons I gave above. I am guessing you are using the “Price is Right” version of anything over 48+…

After I read the above, it may come off as confrontational. That is completely not the intent. So let me rephrase, if it will not develop anytime soon. Do you have an actual time table that you believe it may happen?

[drezee]

I have a vis/IR4 54 hour loop of the area of concern. If you have access to such a visible loop, please give it a peak. You will clearly see two rotary Low-Level circulation moving west in tandem for that entire time period. If you would like, I will send you a zip file of the animation. The issue of it being at the surface or not is a moot point. There have not been any conclusive ship reports in the area during that time that I can recall. Therefore, in that point, we have met an impasse.

[drezee]

26/1145 UTC 6.7N 46.6W T1.0/1.0 93L

[drezee]

By the way, this has happened before. in 1995, Iris did a similair in front of Humberto. There were actually small LLCs that formed in Iris. The one in the middle consumed the other two.

[Thunder44]

787
ABNT20 KNHC 261502
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[gatorcane]

787
ABNT20 KNHC 261502
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

I think our system is looking good this morning - some deep red convection is now firing near the center of the axis as the wave moves W. Here is the latest IR loop:

Look at 10N and 45W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[cheezyWXguy]

thats not 93L...thats the other system...93L is at 7N 47W...I think the one at 10N 45 W could become 94L before it reaches the islands in 2 days or so or maybe even a TD after it hits the islands...I see more potential with that storm than 93L...its also bigger

[gatorcane]

thats not 93L...thats the other system...93L is at 7N 47W...I think the one at 10N 45 W could become 94L before it reaches the islands in 2 days or so or maybe even a TD after it hits the islands...I see more potential with that storm than 93L...its also bigger

Yes, I see more potential with the potential 94L

[bvigal]

thats not 93L...thats the other system...93L is at 7N 47W...I think the one at 10N 45 W could become 94L before it reaches the islands in 2 days or so or maybe even a TD after it hits the islands...I see more potential with that storm than 93L...its also bigger

cheezywxman, that is still part of the same tropical wave. we would generally consider it all together.

Also, I there is no model data on this area today, so I think they've dropped it as an invest, though it may still show on NRL.

[Tampa_God]

There is some shear