INVEST 93L Comments Thread #1

[bvigal]

I know someone mentioned this earlier, another circulation point not far NE of 93L, that persists. Is it possible the low is reorganizing at this location? If so, then I might agree on some slight potential for slow development.

[cheezyWXguy]

no, that has been there for as long as 93L...however, there is potential now because its starting to reform..i wouldnt be surprised to see a 94L out of this

[cheezyWXguy]

well all in all the convection is beginning to die out and some is reforming...it looks a little bit disorganized and im gonna check on it in the morning...beddy-bye time!

[JamesFromMaine2]

floater 2 is now over invest 93L!

[MWatkins]

At first glance at IR2 it looks like there may be 2 circulations embedded within the system...the one the NHC has been running the models on, and another up near 10/40.

Looked at QSCAT tonight and what a shock, todays pass missed:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_1.html

However, looking at the latest SSMI from around 0Z this evening...yep...sure enough the center of whatever this is is located further south down where the NHC is fixing the center:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/t ... W.75pc.jpg

85H imagery suggests the same thing:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/t ... W.74pc.jpg

Thank goodness we have more than conventional satellite imagery. Looks like the NHC is right on with the location of the center. It is looking slightly more interesting tonight...be interesting to see where it is in the morning.

MW

[Scorpion]

I dont know, it looks awfully too close to comfort with South America.

[BillyBobzWildWX]

Definitely looking like development is imminent!!!

[Aquawind]

As long as TAFB or NHC mentions it.. I will be watching.

[curtadams]

Looks like a mess to me. It's got about a day to develop before it either runs aground or passes into a high shear/dry air zone. I don't see anything happening. Given that none of the models do either, I'm on a real long limb there.

[wxman57]

The place to look for development is the crest of the wave near 10.4N/44W, not that swirl embedded in the ITCZ to the southwest near 7.6N/45.5W that the NHC has indicated in the model runs.

[Thunder44]

341
WHXX01 KWBC 260116
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060626 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060626 0000 060626 1200 060627 0000 060627 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 7.2N 44.0W 8.0N 47.2W 8.8N 50.5W 9.7N 53.8W
BAMM 7.2N 44.0W 7.8N 47.3W 8.5N 50.8W 9.2N 54.3W
A98E 7.2N 44.0W 7.5N 46.0W 8.3N 48.3W 9.3N 50.9W
LBAR 7.2N 44.0W 7.7N 46.9W 8.5N 50.0W 9.4N 53.6W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060628 0000 060629 0000 060630 0000 060701 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.6N 57.1W 12.8N 63.3W 15.8N 68.4W 18.8N 71.8W
BAMM 9.9N 57.8W 11.3N 64.1W 13.3N 69.8W 15.4N 75.0W
A98E 9.9N 53.6W 12.6N 59.0W 15.0N 64.2W 17.9N 67.9W
LBAR 10.1N 57.3W 11.6N 64.2W 13.8N 68.6W .0N .0W
SHIP 41KTS 52KTS 58KTS 58KTS
DSHP 41KTS 50KTS 57KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 7.2N LONCUR = 44.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 7.1N LONM12 = 42.1W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 7.0N LONM24 = 40.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[drezee]

Another thing is that the second one is moving faster than the first. They should combine is about 48 hours or less.

There are two distinct system and two distinct circulations. I believe that they will ultimately combine into one larger system, but right how they are separate.

Great Visible:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=12

They look to be trying to do what I indicated yesterday. They should combine within 24 hours. The combination would yield a system between the 8N of the first and the 11N of the second...

If you increase the number of frames in the url and block the overnight frames, then you can clearly see the rotation pulling N of west.

[ThunderMate]

Well we now have two blobs to look at but which one is the dominate feature?

[drezee]

It has been that way since the beginning:

See link:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=86074

[bvigal]

yes, 2 "blobs"

thundermate, go into edit your post with the long URL. Hover your mouse over the "URL" button. It will show you 2 formats. The second one is how to assign some text to the url, so the whole long url path doesn't show on the screen, and make the screen too wide, requiring a scroll.

Here's your url done this way:
try this

[drezee]

If any model is going to see it....then it is which...

I'll give you one guess....

You're right the new NAM:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084s.gif


The 'M' in "NAM" must stand for "Mikey", 'cause "It'll Develop Anything!"

You got a blob that no model even sees...Give to Mickey...'cause He'll develop anything!

[Stratusxpeye]

I don't see a whole lot of potential for this system. We've had a few invests now that really haven't developed into much. I don't see much ptential for this system either. Conditions just aren't all that favorable. Is there any models that have been hinting at this at all othaer than the NAM?

[cheezyWXguy]

This thing better pull up fast or im going to start watching the other one instead...93Llooks like its moving w pretty fast or even wsw

[ThunderMate]

The one to the north looks better and is moving west with enough latitude to miss SA but does it have a LLC?

[cheezyWXguy]

I think it has an LLC if it hasnt weakened too much from the 2 posssible LLC's thread then ya, i think it does