JamesFromMaine2 wrote:wxman57 wrote:I will admit that 93L IS something that does warrant at least some discussion. I have been following what looks like a weak LLC near 8N/42W out in advance of the main wave axis and MLC near 10N/40W today. It's clear that the disturbance is moving very quickly, so quickly that it will likely have a hard time organizing over the next 3-4 days. By "hard time" I mean that it will probably remain as it is, or perhaps weaken a bit.
Once it reaches the eastern Caribbean in 3-4 days it may experience increasing wind shear, another minus for development. That shear may not abate until if/when it reaches the western Caribbean in another week or so. But it's way too early to tell if it'll just skirt across Central America and enter the Eastern Pacific or possibly be far enough north to reach the Yucatan. My estimate would be most likely a track toward Belize then possibly the southern BoC, but that's a very low confidence forecast.
There could well be a chance for development next weekend if there's anything left of it when it slows down and convergence increases in the western Caribbean.
As for a model to follow, I'd look at the BAMS (shallow-layer BAM), which the NHC doesn't publish to the public, as this is a low-level system.
One final factor to consider is that I scheduled July 3rd off as a vacation day. So that pretty much seals the deal.
so your going to just ignore the models and say its not going to develop right away? the models bring it up to 30kts with in 12 hours and 70mph about with in the next 120 hours
Models are not to be ignored, nevertheless, they are not supposed to be taken seriously when a system is developing. So far there is nothing close to a depression.
