91L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[mvtrucking]

Most of the folks in Florida that were needing some rain, got it.

[stormtruth]

The barometer here has been steadily falling since yesterday, about 29.86 now. Have to wonder if that big low over central Florida will regenerate in the GOM.

Here's a good 12 hour radar loop. You can see the low pressure area move from WPB to north of Lake O to southern Polk County. Looks to be moving NW. Don't know if it will reach the GOM or stay inland. Hit the 12-hour button and increase to fastest speed at the link.

http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/Lo ... odnav=none

Looks like it might make it out.

[cheezyWXguy]

it appears to be slowly moving wsw or w

[ronjon]

Very heavy rain here today in the Tampa Bay area. At TIA (Tampa International) as of 7:00PM 2.07" of rain have fallen while here in South Brandon 3.04" of rain have fallen at my place (located 12 miles east of downtown Tampa). Any other amonts worth noting please let us know.


Robert

TIA two day total = 3.13 in.

[Nimbus]

Lowest pressure that I could find along the west coast now appears to be at Clearwater beach with winds out of the east. This is a very broad shallow trough so don't expect much to develop out of it..

[Jim Cantore]

Maybe when it gets into the gulf we could see something.

[Cyclenall]

So is this system going into the gulf after all?

[ronjon]

The MLC or LLC turning in southern Polk County is sliding west. Based on the last 4 hour radar loop - it should be exiting out into the GOM by daybreak tomorrow somewhere near Tampa Bay. Lowest pressure is now centered at St Pete at 29.82 with MacDill AFB and Sarasota at 29.83 in. Pressure is falling at Sarasota.

http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/Lo ... odnav=none

[caneman]

The MLC or LLC turning in southern Polk County is sliding west. Based on the last 4 hour radar loop - it should be exiting out into the GOM by daybreak tomorrow somewhere near Tampa Bay. Lowest pressure is now centered at St Pete at 29.82 with MacDill AFB and Sarasota at 29.83 in. Pressure is falling at Sarasota.

http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/Lo ... odnav=none

Enjoy your posts RonJon. I agree. I too have been watching it all day. Never bought the up the East coast of Florida scenario. Conditions are favorable in Gulf. Is the trough going to catch it? If so, how much time will it have over water before ejected out? Don't think we should write if off just yet if it has 24 hours in the Gulf before getting caught, that is too long!

[JamesFromMaine2]

if the center reforms around the tip of florida then it may not be caught by the trough so it could get to texas or north gulf coast!

[ronjon]

The MLC or LLC turning in southern Polk County is sliding west. Based on the last 4 hour radar loop - it should be exiting out into the GOM by daybreak tomorrow somewhere near Tampa Bay. Lowest pressure is now centered at St Pete at 29.82 with MacDill AFB and Sarasota at 29.83 in. Pressure is falling at Sarasota.

http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/Lo ... odnav=none

Enjoy your posts RonJon. I agree. I too have been watching it all day. Never bought the up the East coast of Florida scenario. Conditions are favorable in Gulf. Is the trough going to catch it? If so, how much time will it have over water before ejected out? Don't think we should write if off just yet if it has 24 hours in the Gulf before getting caught, that is too long!

Caneman, I think it might have 12-24 hrs over the GOM. While moving west now, I'd expect a slow turn toward the NW and then north as it comes under the influence of the trough. Shear will be increasing from the S-SW so it may not really be much more than it is. Maybe nearing the FL panhandle in 24 hrs according to some of the models.

[cheezyWXguy]

if the center reforms around the tip of florida then it may not be caught by the trough so it could get to texas or north gulf coast!

I hope ur right because we really need the rain! Im hoping if it does hit texas, we at least get some rain up here in dallas...with this drought like this, every drop counts

[wxman57]

I can't believe that you folks are still talking about this system. If you look at a surface plot of Florida, pressures are higher in southern parts of the Peninsula. There is a general trof across central parts of the peninsula, with lower pressure farther north. There is still no well-defined surface circulation and no convergence into any one area. Winds are generally light across the entire state of FL. What you're seeing on those radar loops is thunderstorm activity tracking southward on the western side of the upper low, which is now elongating and lifting out to the north off the east coast of Florida. Any circulation you perceive over Florida would be an optical illusion due to developing/dissipating shower activity.

Nothing is going to move into the Gulf because a sharp trof is digging into the NE Gulf tonight/tomorrow morning. That'll shift mid and upper level winds from the southwest and south, taking what's left of 91L northward into Georgia and S. Carolina on Monday then into southern Virginia on Tuesday. It's long past time to look elsewhere for development. You won't get anything out of 91L.

There is no way in the world this is coming toward Texas unless it develops its own propulsion system to fight the prevailing steering-level winds from the S-SW.

Here are a couple of maps of the mid level flow (10,000-20,000 ft) for noon Monday and noon Tuesday. I've indicated the upper low dropping down from the northwest with the bigger "L" and the weak surface reflection of 91L with a smaller "L" on the maps.

Monday at noon:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/map1.gif

Tuesday at noon:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/map2.gif

[wxmann_91]

I can't believe that you folks are still talking about this system.

Yeah, tell me about it. Boy are the members here triggerhappy. Not necessarily a bad thing though.

[wxman57]

I can't believe that you folks are still talking about this system.

Yeah, tell me about it. Boy are the members here triggerhappy. Not necessarily a bad thing though.

"Trigger happy" is one word (or two?) for it. I'm done posting on this thread as there's nothing left to post about. Maybe everyone will give up on development and a Texas strike when it's over Virginia on Tuesday?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I 100 percent agree wxman57.

[tailgater]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 252104
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...IS ENHANCING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT
WATERS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS
OVER LAND.

When the fat lady sings.

[rainydaze]

Any circulation you perceive over Florida would be an optical illusion due to developing/dissipating shower activity.

From Miami NWS 8:45 PM Discussion:

.UPDATE...BIG PICTURE SHOWS A BROAD LOW/TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...BUT CLOSE ANALYSIS OF 00Z UPPER AIR DATA REVEALS SOME
INTERESTING FEATURES. MOST NOTEWORTHY OF THESE FEATURES IS A
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER COLLIER COUNTY WHICH IS EVIDENT ON
MIAMI RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER AIR OBS.

It seems there is some circulation over Florida at the mid-level.

[Jim Cantore]

I'm not writing it off yet, but I dont expect anything from it for a few days at least.

[wxman57]

I'm not writing it off yet, but I dont expect anything from it for a few days at least.

You mean when it reaches Pennsylvania? Oops! I said I'd made my last plst here.