INVEST 93L Comments Thread #1

[cheezyWXguy]

is this the LLC farther south or north?

[mvtrucking]

is this the LLC farther south or north?

South. 92L is the north system I believe.

[no advance]

Notice how the south disturbance is absorbing the energy of the NE wave. We might have something here. It is moving quick.

[weatherbee1982]

92L was the system that was at 35N, which has since lost all convection associated with it and is no longer an invest. 93L is the LLC at 8N, but there is also another LLC to it's immediate NE that bears watching as well (which is NOT designated as an invest). Hopefully that clarifies any confusion.

[rockyman]

The way TAFB shows the high oriented, this system should gain latitude slowly...perhaps a good benchmark would be 10N/55W...which the system should reach by Tuesday morning.

The southern track of the system could be a positive factor...because it would keep the system away from the deadly shear and dry air that lurks to the north...

[rockyman]

Will the possible low pressure to the NE of the system tend to keep the system further south?

Also, it's quite possible that the low level center could slowly creep poleward through center reformations...especially if the main convection is on the north side of the system.

[cheezyWXguy]

ok...good...thats what i thot...the one to ins NE is i think incountering dry air...i checked WV loop this morning and there was quite about of it to its west and was beginning to be affected...93L was low enough that it missed the SAL

[no advance]

Look at the IR of the system NHC and run a loop The system NE of the invest is being absorbing into the invest. These are low latitude waves. Can we call it a Cape Verde invest? Thankfully it isnt Augest or we might have something potentially real bad.

[rockyman]

The first tropical model suite should arrive in about 45 minutes.

[cheezyWXguy]

i have no idea what theyre talking about when they say it doesnt have enough convection...this thing has deep convection forming all over it

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html

[Valkhorn]

[img]they have gone invest happy. this will dissipate[/img]

This from the same person who said Isabel would be a fish.

[drezee]

From Yesterday at 1510:

I am thinking that we may get a blow up on the first little spinner tonight. It is heading into a higher heat content area.

I thought it had the best chance. Good to not have to eat crow this time...

[vaffie]

Wow, it looks pretty healthy to me. It may just have a chance. I wonder where the first tropical suite will take it.

[cheezyWXguy]

ya i thot this one would beat the other one out...ever since i saw that little blow up right ontop of the center of this storm i knew it would be the strongest one and this morning i wasnt too surprised to see the other circulation losing convection

[bvigal]

Next, will 93L gain latitude quickly enough to clear any land influence from South America?

That certainly looks to be an issue.

TAFB latest 48hr forecast..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

That's a very interesting chart. Especially since it was released at 7pm, after the invest was declared. It looks like they don't expect it to track much northward before it makes SA coast. I hope they're right. In the last two years, these very low-lattitude systems have done the unexpected before, and they sure do get my rapt attention until it's clear they will stay south.

[cheezyWXguy]

also i could see this storm as a gulf hitter, probably taking a track between dennis and emily's tracks last year

[drezee]

they have gone invest happy. this will dissipate

Not sure what credentials you have to attempt to discredit the work of the NHC and NRL. They made it an invest because in their professional opinion, it had enough merit. You are welcome to your opinion as well, but it cannot have any weight without some sort of history of superior knowledge than that of those who grace the halls of such well-established institutions.

[cheezyWXguy]

wow drezee, you sure do know a lot of big words

[SouthFloridawx]

Wow.. I am gone for a few hours and now this.



This thing needs to gain latitude quick...

Current Steering flow would push the circulation onto land.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

[Scott_inVA]

I cannot handle this many invests.

Tell me about it.
I'm living on my computers. Usually, I don't "lose" my family till August.
And...while not overly enthused, I think the disturbance north of PR, progged to head NE then West will be an Invest. Sheesh!

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm