91L invest Bahamas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[jlauderdal]

Geez....they've been saying the exact same thing since this morning.

when not much happens in 12 hours thats what you get. as far as i can tell its doing exactly what the smart money thought it would by now, not too much. the conditions are marginal at best but that shoudl change. m. watkins talked about all this last night and said saturday would be the day of interest and that is how its panning out. so everybody can sleep well tonight because not much is going to happen until tomorrow.

Yup...pretty boring system right now. This weekend will make the difference to see if it's a go or not. Like you said, all they do is pretty much cut and paste on a system like this.

exactly, they arent in the business of hyping everything like fox news or msnbc. besides we have this forum to pump up the hype factor, haha.

[wxwonder12]

How accurate are the models at this point??? Will this be a rain event for S Florida as well as Northern Florida??

[CHRISTY]

Here is a close up of the models....

[Vortex]

Christy, Thank You for all the graphics. Is this from the sight you signed up with a few months ago. If, so thanks for sharing.

[The Hurricaner]

How accurate are the models at this point??? Will this be a rain event for S Florida as well as Northern Florida??

Will someone please answer these questions? Will the models become more accurate or is that bunch taking it into NF pretty accurate?

[EDR1222]

I would think that since the system is not well developed yet, the models would not be as accurate as they might be with a more organized storm. Will it be guided by lower level winds or mid level winds etc. Not an expert here, just an observation.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I believe those are hurricane forecast models like the BAM,BAMM,LBAR etc which are to a point pretty good. I would trust the BAM,Bamm like models for the subtropicals in dealing with troughs. I think the system will turn to the northwest once inland because of a trough(Short wave reinformment) over the midwest near 100 west right now. Which will weaken the high that has set up to the north of the system.

[southerngale]

How accurate are the models at this point??? Will this be a rain event for S Florida as well as Northern Florida??

Will someone please answer these questions? Will the models become more accurate or is that bunch taking it into NF pretty accurate?

It was only asked 7 minutes ago from the time of your post. Give people who might have an answer a chance to see it.

[CHRISTY]

How accurate are the models at this point??? Will this be a rain event for S Florida as well as Northern Florida??

Will someone please answer these questions? Will the models become more accurate or is that bunch taking it into NF pretty accurate?

these models have to be taken with caution cause until recon gets out there we wont have a really good fix were the LLC is.

[CrazyC83]

I'm still not terribly confident that it will even develop...

[wxman57]

How accurate are the models at this point??? Will this be a rain event for S Florida as well as Northern Florida??

Will someone please answer these questions? Will the models become more accurate or is that bunch taking it into NF pretty accurate?

these models have to be taken with caution cause until recon gets out there we wont have a really good fix were the LLC is.

There may not be an LLC tomorrow, either. But I think that, in this case, the strong model agreement is partly because the models really DO have a good "center" to track. They're tracking the low-mid level vorticity (spin) center. That's fairly well-established and embedded in the low to mid-level flow. There is plenty of model agreement that this vorticity center will track toward NE Florida over the weekend, reaching the coast on Sunday, whether or not an LLC develops beneath it. It's unlikely that any LLC would be able to survive unless it's under this vorticity center, so I would trust the models which look at mid-level steering and are taking it WNW.

With so much dry air and wind shear, I'm wondering if it'll even mean much rain for FL or GA. Might not be much of a rain maker until its moisture tracks up the front across the northeast U.S.

[Evil Jeremy]

Here is a close up of the models....

as time goes on, these will become more trustworthy. but i have noticed that they have moved more south than before.

[CHRISTY]

Guys check this out....speed the loop up and u can really see a spin,it almost like its gonna reach the coast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[The Hurricaner]

Guys check this out....speed the loop up and u can really see a spin,it almost like its gonna reach the coast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

I cant see it, please give a specific location. Anyways it looks more disorganized but i guess overnight will change it, right?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

How accurate are the models at this point??? Will this be a rain event for S Florida as well as Northern Florida??

Will someone please answer these questions? Will the models become more accurate or is that bunch taking it into NF pretty accurate?

these models have to be taken with caution cause until recon gets out there we wont have a really good fix were the LLC is.

There may not be an LLC tomorrow, either. But I think that, in this case, the strong model agreement is partly because the models really DO have a good "center" to track. They're tracking the low-mid level vorticity (spin) center. That's fairly well-established and embedded in the low to mid-level flow. There is plenty of model agreement that this vorticity center will track toward NE Florida over the weekend, reaching the coast on Sunday, whether or not an LLC develops beneath it. It's unlikely that any LLC would be able to survive unless it's under this vorticity center, so I would trust the models which look at mid-level steering and are taking it WNW.

With so much dry air and wind shear, I'm wondering if it'll even mean much rain for FL or GA. Might not be much of a rain maker until its moisture tracks up the front across the northeast U.S.

I agree but a report from vortex shows that there is west-southwest winds to the south of the low. So it could be at the surface. Do I expect it to be strong on. Maybe a subtropical like system maybe maxing at no more then 40 knots. Then I expect it to turn to the northwest then north as the trough/jet stream at around 95-97 reinforces the trough/long wave over the northern east coast/Pa and great lake area. Which should weaken the high to the north. Yes theres dry air but I'v seen many a system develop with a ull to its west. Grace,Fay,Bill to name a few.

[wxman57]

Here is a close up of the models....

as time goes on, these will become more trustworthy. but i have noticed that they have moved more south than before.

Beware, there has been no southward shift. The model to the south appears to be an old run that had initialized way too far south. The models turning it sharply right would be the LBAR (worthless) and climo projections (worthless). The better models are in strong agreement in a track toward NE FL and GA on Sunday. Probably won't be more than a weak surface low.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

How accurate are the models at this point??? Will this be a rain event for S Florida as well as Northern Florida??

Will someone please answer these questions? Will the models become more accurate or is that bunch taking it into NF pretty accurate?

these models have to be taken with caution cause until recon gets out there we wont have a really good fix were the LLC is.

There may not be an LLC tomorrow, either. But I think that, in this case, the strong model agreement is partly because the models really DO have a good "center" to track. They're tracking the low-mid level vorticity (spin) center. That's fairly well-established and embedded in the low to mid-level flow. There is plenty of model agreement that this vorticity center will track toward NE Florida over the weekend, reaching the coast on Sunday, whether or not an LLC develops beneath it. It's unlikely that any LLC would be able to survive unless it's under this vorticity center, so I would trust the models which look at mid-level steering and are taking it WNW.

With so much dry air and wind shear, I'm wondering if it'll even mean much rain for FL or GA. Might not be much of a rain maker until its moisture tracks up the front across the northeast U.S.

[Evil Jeremy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

unless a convection flare-up occours in the next 12-24 hours, this thing is history!.

[wxwonder12]

How come the NHC is indicating that this system has potential for development, even though slow, and it is being said that it better hurry up and start with some convection or it will be nothing????

[wxman57]

There may not be an LLC tomorrow, either. But I think that, in this case, the strong model agreement is partly because the models really DO have a good "center" to track. They're tracking the low-mid level vorticity (spin) center. That's fairly well-established and embedded in the low to mid-level flow. There is plenty of model agreement that this vorticity center will track toward NE Florida over the weekend, reaching the coast on Sunday, whether or not an LLC develops beneath it. It's unlikely that any LLC would be able to survive unless it's under this vorticity center, so I would trust the models which look at mid-level steering and are taking it WNW.

With so much dry air and wind shear, I'm wondering if it'll even mean much rain for FL or GA. Might not be much of a rain maker until its moisture tracks up the front across the northeast U.S.

I agree but a report from vortex shows that there is west-southwest winds to the south of the low. So it could be at the surface. Do I expect it to be strong on. Maybe a subtropical like system maybe maxing at no more then 40 knots. Then I expect it to turn to the northwest then north as the trough/jet stream at around 95-97 reinforces the trough/long wave over the northern east coast/Pa and great lake area. Which should weaken the high to the north. Yes theres dry air but I'v seen many a system develop with a ull to its west. Grace,Fay,Bill to name a few.

What's "vortex"? I've been looking at surface plots of all ships/buoys/land stations in the area all day and see no evidence of any LLC, but pressures continue to fall in the area, down about 4-5 mb since yesterday. With convection falling off now, I'm becoming less concerned that it'll be anything more than a weak surface low at landfall.