91L invest Bahamas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[Aquawind]

so what can u tell me bout this graphic....landfall is south of what your pointing out.

That is the 12Z forecast so we'll have to wait for the upadated one.

Exactly.. New set come out soon.

[CHRISTY]

so what can u tell me bout this graphic....landfall is south of what your pointing out.

That is the 12Z forecast so we'll have to wait for the upadated one.

ok cool.

[Aquawind]

Here the update...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

No GOM

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The system seems to have a organized center now instead of many lows. You can also see a soutward wind on the western side of the system. So yes there appears to be a spin/MLC maybe a LLC. Now lets see if it can gain some convection. I would up it to Subtropical if it could be confirmed to have a LLC.

[cpdaman]

1. this thing is centered at 25.0 N 75 west signifigantly more SOUTHWEST then earlier indicated

2. it is moving DUE westward and i think it is going to slow down a abit short term (IMO)

3. will that little eddie-like spinnoff low moving down from off shore melbourne-FT. pierce rotate around and give the south west side of this storm some thunderstorms tonite around the diurnal maximum)


4. the sea surface temperatures in the area of the central bahamas where this thing is grinding toward (http://www.sstcharts.com/ba_06_06_23_06_30_AM_H.shtml) *82-86*

intresting nite ahead

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah I agree...The system is overall better organized around a central area of of low pressure. But yes still has to gain some convection.

[CHRISTY]

1. this thing is centered at 25.0 N 75 west signifigantly more SOUTHWEST then earlier indicated

2. it is moving DUE westward and i think it is going to slow down a abit short term (IMO)

3. will that little eddie-like spinnoff low moving down from off shore melbourne-FT. pierce rotate around and give the south west side of this storm some thunderstorms tonite around the diurnal maximum)


4. the sea surface temperatures in the area of the central bahamas where this thing is grinding toward (http://www.sstcharts.com/ba_06_06_23_06_30_AM_H.shtml) *82-86*

intresting nite ahead

If this stays rather weak dont u guys think it may continue west.once i see this mess pass to me to the north then i'll feel much better.

[gatorcane]

so I am gone 4 days and we have another system potentially targeting Florida?

We just can't get a break.

[dixiebreeze]

I think this is the latest TPC/NHC Plot Map -- models are more in concensus now:

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

[Evil Jeremy]

hey, boca! welcome back, and yes.

[skysummit]

so I am gone 4 days and we have another system potentially targeting Florida?

We just can't get a break.

You should be glad Boca....everyone in Florida says they need the rain! Just feel lucky...you may only get these "wanna be" systems.

[Evil Jeremy]

but this is what im afraid of. Alberto hit Florida. Beryl will hit Florida. can this begin a trend? are we in for another devistating, storm after storm year?

[Nimbus]

Looks like the center has tracked from 26.5n 73w this morning to to near 27.5n 75w at sunset.

Thats about a degree of latitude gained already so I would expect the official track (when the NHC puts it up) to be more toward Jacksonville.

Hopefully the trough will shear it apart before it gets a chance to intensify over the gulf stream.

[cpdaman]

looks to me like the northern side of this broad low is at 26.6 stretching south to around 25.0 for the south end of this not fully closed off low

[Opal storm]

but this is what im afraid of. Alberto hit Florida. Beryl will hit Florida. can this begin a trend? are we in for another devistating, storm after storm year?

How do you know that?This could very well hit GA or SC.And it's not even Beryl yet,this might not even become Beryl (though it most likely will).

[johngaltfla]

Here we're go again. And sheesh, it's still early.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wahooo looks like its going to develop!!!


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 27N74W OR ABOUT 330
MILES EAST OF FLORIDA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE WEEKEND.

[skysummit]

Geez....they've been saying the exact same thing since this morning.

[wxman57]

First of all, there is no "center" of this disturbance. You'll get in trouble if you try to track the small vortices rotating around the mid to upper-level low. Just ignore those swirls. Instead, step back and look at where the mass of the convection is heading. It's definitely tracking WNW. I'd estimate that the place to watch is clsoer to 28N/75W this evening. That would be where convection would most likely fire if the wind shear ever drops.

On WV and IR loops, this thing doesn't look very tropical at all. Certainly doesn't look like it's anywhere near becoming a TD.

[cycloneye]

Wahooo looks like its going to develop!!!


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 27N74W OR ABOUT 330
MILES EAST OF FLORIDA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE WEEKEND.

That is a copy and paste from the 5:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook that forecaster Formosa did at discussion except for the plane information.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 232118
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE CONTINUED TO
GRADUALLY FALL BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND POORLY
ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI