1.5/1.5 now

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Derek Ortt

1.5/1.5 now

#1 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:25 pm

Right on the verge of becoming a TD
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ColdFront77

#2 Postby ColdFront77 » Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:30 pm

This area of convection must really have potential. Will sure be interesting to see how the wind shear changes to its west.
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Do not think she will make it

#3 Postby jabber » Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:42 pm

As of the evening, she looks to be falling apart. Lets see if the morning brings a come back. I give it 10% chance of making it to a TD
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#4 Postby weatherlover427 » Mon Jun 09, 2003 8:03 pm

This is the Cape Verde area one, right?
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#5 Postby mf_dolphin » Mon Jun 09, 2003 8:05 pm

Right Joshua. We'll have to see how it hangs together overnight. Now looking real good on IR at this time but we'll see how it is in the morning.
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Derek Ortt

#6 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jun 09, 2003 8:05 pm

It isnt falling apart, at least yet. Convection is now actually consolidating near the center. Lets not forget we reached the dirunal min
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#7 Postby Steve » Mon Jun 09, 2003 8:10 pm

>>As of the evening, she looks to be falling apart. Lets see if the morning brings a come back. I give it 10% chance of making it to a TD

I think that's a little low. It's at least 11% :). Seriously, I'd put it somewhere around 40-45%.

Steve
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#8 Postby wx247 » Mon Jun 09, 2003 9:09 pm

Before or after it reaches the shear. Are we talking on down the line or are we speaking of before it weakens?
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Re: 1.5/1.5 now

#9 Postby MWatkins » Mon Jun 09, 2003 9:20 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Right on the verge of becoming a TD


I'd say we're close...need more deep convection than we're seeing...but it could be on the comebace. Here's a repost of material I posted elsewhere...I really have no revisions or additions...

Banding looks better but deep convection has been on the decline since sunset...will be interested to see if it makes an overnight comeback like yesterday...and there is a plume going up near where the broad center is as I write this...

I was wrong to suggest a 1.5 was possible at 18Z...it would have violated time constraints for the dvorak method. Even without deep convection...I agree it should be a 1.5 now.

BTW the 18Z GFDL now hangs on to the system for 60 hours...taking it to around 12.5N 48W before dissipation.

I remember in 2000 it kept droping TD2 after 12 hours.

Too bad they havent worked out the transmission issues with the basic models (LBAR BAMD etc). It would be nice to see ships guidance. This happens at the beginning of every season unfortunately.

MW
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Derek Ortt

#10 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jun 09, 2003 9:25 pm

Not sure what is going on, it may be a problem with Ohio-State receiving the transmissions as the models are still being run
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We may be close

#11 Postby jabber » Mon Jun 09, 2003 9:27 pm

But I do not think the NHC will call it out in the middle of the Atlantic if not really needed. She looks to spread out and the area of deepest convection appears to be removed from the center.
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I've Been Following...

#12 Postby MWatkins » Mon Jun 09, 2003 9:32 pm

I've been following the models as they come in on one of the NWS servers...and the test transmissions are coming in all garbled...they don't look alligned correctly.

MW
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