91L invest Bahamas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

#161 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 12:13 pm

LOL...the 12z NAM has it making landfall in Central Florida, then doing a loopty loop over the penninsula, emerging back over the Atlantic, and then making a second landfall just south of Savannah.

#162 Postby **StJoe** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 12:13 pm

Ok, back to business....Although I have to agree with buc...I really think that this "future tropical cyclone" will turn into a "depression". Maybe not Beryl...But only time will tell.

Hey BUC...get your fingers out of your nose....caught you!

cheezyWXguy · #163 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 12:21 pm

I think this thing is going to get to be Beryl, and then its going to cross florida into the gulf and probably make landfall anywhere from houston to pensicola

birdwomn · #164 Postby **birdwomn** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 12:25 pm

cheezywxman wrote:I think this thing is going to get to be Beryl, and then its going to cross florida into the gulf and probably make landfall anywhere from houston to pensicola

Did you miss the memo that no hurricanes are allowed in the GOM this season? :lol:

Noles2006 · #165 Postby **Noles2006** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 12:26 pm

I don't think thing makes the GOM other than maybe a brief re-emergence in the NE GOM... rainmaker, and that's it, for FLA and the SE USA.

#166 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 12:26 pm

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 23.06.2006

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION :

22.1N 74.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 23.06.2006 22.1N 74.9W WEAK

00UTC 24.06.2006 23.5N 75.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.06.2006 26.3N 77.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 25.06.2006 26.2N 81.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 25.06.2006 25.2N 82.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 26.06.2006 27.3N 82.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 26.06.2006 30.0N 84.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 27.06.2006 33.1N 87.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 27.06.2006 32.9N 84.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 28.06.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL OVER LAND

Above are the 12:00 UTC UKMET model plots.

133
WHXX04 KWBC 231721
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L

INITIAL TIME 12Z JUN 23

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 26.6 73.6 270./ 1.0
6 26.7 74.3 274./ 6.4

STORM DISSIPATED AT 6 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

GFDL at 12z dissipate the system in 6 hours.

#167 Postby **P.K.** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 12:27 pm

cycloneye wrote:Tropical Cyclone formation aleret issued

Remember that isn't a RSMC Miami product though Luis, they don't release TCFAs.

#168 Postby **tracyswfla** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 12:27 pm

where is the alert?

#169 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 12:29 pm

tracyswfla wrote:where is the alert?

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=120

At page 7 of thread.

KatDaddy · #170 Postby **KatDaddy** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 12:29 pm

Looking a little better this morning. I expect this Invest to become Beryl and threaten the SE US. Its a little far N to move into the GOM. The Bermuda high would need to build steadily Westward for that to occur.

Thunder44 · #171 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 12:30 pm

P.K. wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Tropical Cyclone formation aleret issued

Remember that isn't a RSMC Miami product though Luis, they don't release TCFAs.

Yeah, it's a Navy product and it's not always a precursor to TC development either.

#172 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 12:34 pm

Am I seeing the first stages of banding???

#173 Postby **tgenius** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 12:34 pm

But why does it say 22.1N? Isn't that MUCH farther south then the point everyone was saying was the point NHC is using?

#174 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 12:34 pm

If already posted I apologize, but here is the NHC models for Invest 91:

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

Damar91 · #175 Postby **Damar91** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 12:35 pm

skysummit wrote:Am I seeing the first stages of banding???

I noticed that as well. I also think that the ukmet is on to something. It has the center at 22.1 N.

#176 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 12:36 pm

skysummit wrote:Am I seeing the first stages of banding???

Possibly. that is right where I think the initial main LLCC is forming based on the last visible loops I saw.

#177 Postby **tracyswfla** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 12:37 pm

cycloneye wrote:
tracyswfla wrote:where is the alert?

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=120

At page 7 of thread.

Thanks Luis!

#178 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 12:42 pm

It is remindful of Frances -- and we lost a huge live oak with that one as she crossed Florida.

Aquawind · #179 Postby **Aquawind** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 12:42 pm

Looking at the medium sized loop looks like a the convection is consolidating over that area skysummit and yes some inflow banding.. The other swirls are pretty open I think this is the best location for oficial poppage..

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

The Hurricaner · #180 Postby **The Hurricaner** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 12:46 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:If already posted I apologize, but here is the NHC models for Invest 91:

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

When the page comes up, the picture has a red x in top-left corner and i right-click-showpicture doesn't work. Where does it make landfall?

91L invest Bahamas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

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