91L invest Bahamas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[Weatherfreak000]

It's looking like we may just see our second storm of the season. Amazing

[CHRISTY]

in my opinion the track will depend on were recon finds the LLC Tommorow.i will say its more to the southeast were the thunderstorms are located.

[Derek Ortt]

if this would become a named storm, we would have had 2 June storms in consecutive seasons and have reached the B storm by the end of June in 3 out of the last 4 years. Not sure if this has happened before

[Weatherfreak000]

Also another interesting omen here is if this forms we'll be AHEAD of 2005 on terms of classifications and also have the first two storms allready making U.S. Landfalls.

Scary stuff.

[fci]

WNW movement from 26.7, 73.6 takes it north of South Florida.
Works for me!

More like Central Florida.

Agree with you but more often, the WNW track becomes more NW and then N bypassing Central Florida.

Which is what I am requesting since we are vacationing in Orlando area starting Sunday. So the weather Gods have been informed that Central and South Florida are off limits through July 2.

[jaxfladude]

Big Bend of Florida and NE Florida were supposed to see little activity.

So far Alberto hits the Big Bend area, then the second "potential" storm might hit NE Fla/Ga coastline.

There goes most mets outlooks.

or that is the question for when the peak of the hurricane season start of Aug. thru Mid-Oct................I prefer just two T.S.'s making landfall.....rain and some wind is not too bad......

P.S. No major injuries or deaths ie light plane crashing while taking off in one of Alberto's rain bands in the greater Tampa area a few weeks ago..........

[cjrciadt]

WNW movement from 26.7, 73.6 takes it north of South Florida.
Works for me!

More like Central Florida.

Agree with you but more often, the WNW track becomes more NW and then N bypassing Central Florida.

Which is what I am requesting since we are vacationing in Orlando area starting Sunday. So the weather Gods have been informed that Central and South Florida are off limits through July 2.

I better be thru July 7th (Pespi400, Shuttle, July4th, Pirates at MK)!!
Plenty of time to watch it though.

[Stormcenter]

Well the odds are somewhere (south,central or northern) in Florida will feel the effects of this disturbance. I don't think it will go any further north.

[canegrl04]

All I ask for this season is that no major canes hit LA But I believe we have a good chance of seeing a cat 5 hit the US this year given what has happened the last two

[CrazyC83]

I'd give it a 40% chance of development.

I think that it is in an area that is not totally conducive to tropical development this early in the season, but is already fairly organized as it is.

[jaxfladude]

Here's yet another model plot. I have the BAMS on here, too. Of course, you can always ignore the LBAR and AH98E (climo) model. All BAM models say the same - wnw-nw toward Jacksonville. Dynamic models in good agreement as well on the movement of the upper low. Of course, I always advise being wary of the BAM models north of 20N latitude as they're designed for low-latitude systems where the steering currents aren't changing.

Wind shear still looks very strong over it (watch how you interpret those wind shear maps - look at a good, long WV loop). This is not so much a tropical system as a hybrid low.

I think there's a good chance it'll be upgraded to a TD tomorrow due to its proximity to land, but conditions aloft don't favor much intensification before it moves inland.

Holy Crap!

Hi there. hope that that nothing major comes our way this season or *ever<--wishful thinking...

[drezee]

Over 4mb 24-hour drops off FL coast now

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=M&tz=STN

Eddy on radar

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... b&loop=yes

[tailgater]

The area near the SE Bahamas is a likely candidate to become the center, it has T-storms and is on the SE side of the ULL.

All right I've studied these Vis. loops and will admit I don't have a clue. It looks like a big mess that, if the NHC weren't hinting at development I'd think it wouldn't stand a chance. So I guess I have a lot of schooling to do.
This just about says it all.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/SCA ... 20_-80.gif

[Stormcenter]

All I ask for this season is that no major canes hit LA But I believe we have a good chance of seeing a cat 5 hit the US this year given what has happened the last two

I second that!

[jasons2k]

All I ask for this season is that no major canes hit LA But I believe we have a good chance of seeing a cat 5 hit the US this year given what has happened the last two

I second that!

Regardless of the increased activity and forecast for another active season, the chances of a Cat. 5 hitting the US are very low in any given season, including this season. It may be more likely this year than in other years, but a Cat. 5 landfall is an extremely rare event.

[CrazyC83]

Conditions have to be perfectly timed for a Category 5 landfall. It usually needs to rapidly intensify in the hours before landfall.

[Stormcenter]

All I ask for this season is that no major canes hit LA But I believe we have a good chance of seeing a cat 5 hit the US this year given what has happened the last two

I second that!

Regardless of the increased activity and forecast for another active season, the chances of a Cat. 5 hitting the US are very low in any given season, including this season. It may be more likely this year than in other years, but a Cat. 5 landfall is an extremely rare event.

I agree about a Cat. 5 not likelyin 2006. But I was really replying to hopefully not seeing another LA. landfalling major hurricane.

[Frank P]

All I ask for this season is that no major canes hit LA But I believe we have a good chance of seeing a cat 5 hit the US this year given what has happened the last two

I second that!

Regardless of the increased activity and forecast for another active season, the chances of a Cat. 5 hitting the US are very low in any given season, including this season. It may be more likely this year than in other years, but a Cat. 5 landfall is an extremely rare event.

I agree about a Cat. 5 not likelyin 2006. But I was really replying to hopefully not seeing another LA. landfalling major hurricane.

What I'd be more worried about, and perhaps something that is more likely again this season, is another repeat of the 2004 and 2005 seasons with a landfalling Cat 3 storm bringing in a Cat 5 surge..... Ivan had a pretty impressive surge in 2004 and Katrina was unprecedented.... so you don't have to have a Cat 5 at landfall, but being a Cat 5 and then weaking to a Cat 3 in the GOM as it approaches land is just as bad from a surge standpoint.... last two seasons proved that

[wxman57]

Here's a new visible shot with sfc obs and eddies located. I don't think this has much chance of making it beyond weak TS prior to moving ashore in 48 hours or less. Just not very favorable conditions aloft. Only a rain threat:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/beryl2.gif

[fci]

Hey, I am terrified at the thought of a Cat 5 hitting any land area however, I don't know how anyone can say that is "likely" or "unlikely" in any given season.
Especially in June!

How does anyone have any basis for saying it except that the probability of any Cat 5 hitting land is low enough that it is deemed "unlikely" in any gievn year. But to call out a specific year has no real basis in reality or is defendable.

I hope you are right that it will not happen....ever!