91L invest Bahamas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

CHRISTY · #81 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 9:52 am

Ok can we say this is not a problem for south florida?if those tracks hold true which they might not it might miss florida completely and move into south carolina.what u guys think?

#82 Postby **tailgater** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 9:53 am

The area near the SE Bahamas is a likely candidate to become the center, it has T-storms and is on the SE side of the ULL.

wzrgirl1 · #83 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 9:54 am

this won't be south florida storm........at least in my opinion

#84 Postby **StJoe** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 9:55 am

I really think that this is a problem for Florida....I'm thinking SE Florida. I am not agreeing with the models at all... Its pushing west...I think tailgater is correct.

#85 Postby **fci** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 9:58 am

SkeetoBite wrote:Shuttle launch currently scheduled for July 1.

And a fairly big NASCAR race on July 1!!!!!!

CHRISTY · #86 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 10:02 am

Guys i also think the LLC will be were the ball of thunderstorms are flareing up...to the southeast of the ULL.

#87 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 10:04 am

Wait....when some of you are saying "southeast of the Bahamas", are you talking about here?....

HalloweenGale · #88 Postby **HalloweenGale** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 10:05 am

Maybe it will pull a bob.

beachbum_al · #89 Postby **beachbum_al** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 10:12 am

StJoe wrote:Looks like they are getting serious now....I bet they are reading the great posts at S2K...Wouldn't doubt it...They don't need models...They have us to let them know whats going on...

We do have a great bunch of people here who do know what they are talking about. Makes my life much easier during the summer.

#90 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 10:16 am

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT FRI 23 JUN 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUN 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-023

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAHAMAS).
FLIGHT ONE
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 24/1545Z
D. 28.0N 77.5W
E. 24/1700Z TO 2200Z
F. SFC TO 10000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 25/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 25/0915Z
D. 29.0N 80.0W
E. 25/1100Z TO 1830Z
F. SFC TO 10000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUED 6 HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.

THE FLIGHT PLANS BECOME MORE SERIOUS!

#91 Postby **fci** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 10:16 am

CHRISTY wrote:Ok can we say this is not a problem for south florida?if those tracks hold true which they might not it might miss florida completely and move into south carolina.what u guys think?

Models show it turning north never reaching South Florida but discussions show a low coming across South Florida.

I' ll opt for the models' route.
My memory seems to recollect several systems developing a bit in this area that end up moving north and more commonly NE.

Now, if it forms further south (or in the SE Bahamas) , then South Florida would very well be in its way. But if it forms where they seem to show it, I think it is too far North to come to South Florida.

#92 Postby **drezee** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 10:18 am

drezee wrote:There is another tropical wave about to pile in a ton of heat into this system. You can see the sharp curvature in the visible loops near 23N and 66W. This should really increase the inflow and cause this system to pop.

After talking with a friend from Coastal Weather at USA, there is also the possiblity that it does not join in on the fun and kills the inflow on the E side and slide more NW around the system.

jabber · #93 Postby **jabber** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 10:22 am

Thats the spot I am thinking as well.

skysummit wrote:Wait....when some of you are saying "southeast of the Bahamas", are you talking about here?....

#94 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 10:23 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

#95 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 10:25 am

23/1215 UTC 26.7N 73.6W T1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

#96 Postby **fci** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 10:28 am

WNW movement from 26.7, 73.6 takes it north of South Florida.
Works for me!

bucman1 · #97 Postby **bucman1** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 10:30 am

moving very slowly and i'm sure that direction will change -i'm thinking anywhere from central Florida to north Georgia.

To early to tell-

#98 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 10:32 am

Ooooo. This is getting interesting. That thing has a good swirl to it and it's not moving real fast. Has time to intensify.

#99 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 10:33 am

bucman1 wrote:moving very slowly and i'm sure that direction will change -i'm thinking anywhere from central Florida to north Georgia.

To early to tell-

When a definite low-level circulation takes shape and dominates the entire circulation, then it will be easier to say where it will move.

caneman · #100 Postby **caneman** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 10:34 am

fci wrote:WNW movement from 26.7, 73.6 takes it north of South Florida.
Works for me!

More like Central Florida.

91L invest Bahamas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

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