91L invest Bahamas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[cheezyWXguy]

thatd be pretty crazy if we got two storms that nearly reached hurricane strength

P.S. does wunderground have an archive of alberto yet?

[vbhoutex]

Guess where the center is forming?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Right under the popcorn tstorms to the East of the lower naked swirl, imo.

[SkeetoBite]

Anyone see that the SHIPS takes it up to 62kts in 108 hours...

This is very early guidance.

FYI - Follow the SHIPS (over open water) until the DSHIPS (over land) intersects the SHIPS line, then follow DSHIPS as this is the estimated intensity over land, which always shows a major drop off.

[Stormcenter]

Here's yet another model plot. I have the BAMS on here, too. Of course, you can always ignore the LBAR and AH98E (climo) model. All BAM models say the same - wnw-nw toward Jacksonville. Dynamic models in good agreement as well on the movement of the upper low. Of course, I always advise being wary of the BAM models north of 20N latitude as they're designed for low-latitude systems where the steering currents aren't changing.

Wind shear still looks very strong over it (watch how you interpret those wind shear maps - look at a good, long WV loop). This is not so much a tropical system as a hybrid low.

I think there's a good chance it'll be upgraded to a TD tomorrow due to its proximity to land, but conditions aloft don't favor much intensification before it moves inland.

Holy Crap!

I think you can save the "Holy Crap" for this possible system. If we were in August or September then I would worry more. As someone has already posted this will not have the ideal conditions to seriously develop but as we all know things can change.

[SkeetoBite]

...P.S. does wunderground have an archive of alberto yet?

Not sure. We have one: Alberto Archive

[curtadams]

Anyone see that the SHIPS takes it up to 62kts in 108 hours...

SHIPS is a statistical model based on storms that actually became tropical depressions, so it's very imprecise. It also overestimates invest development because it doesn't include "failed" invests in its data set - only storms that actually became cyclones.

[skysummit]

Guess where the center is forming?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Right under the popcorn tstorms to the East of the lower naked swirl, imo.

[Derek Ortt]

SHIPS also assumes that the invest is already a depression, so it should not be used for systems like this

[Thunder44]

SHIPS also assumes that the invest is already a depression, so it should not be used for systems like this

Most models take the storm inland long before 108hrs too.

[skysummit]

SHIPS also assumes that the invest is already a depression, so it should not be used for systems like this

Most models take the storm inland long before 108hrs too.

Believe me...I wasn't taking it seriously. Since no one mentioned it, I thought I would for a laugh.

[StJoe]

Wow...Really starting to look healthy:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I think its pretty clear now...

[beachbum_al]

Not trying to sound -removed- etc but what are the chances of this system crossing over to the GOM? Looks like it is getting organized.

[NBCintern]

It better not hit anywhere near Daytona July 1, 2006

[jdray]

It will be long gone before July 1st.

[Thunder44]

They have scheduled a flight for tomorrow then another for Sunday.

733
NOUS42 KNHC 231430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT FRI 23 JUN 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUN 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-023

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAHAMAS).
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 24/1800Z A. 25/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 24/1545Z C. 25/0915Z
D. 28.0N 77.5W D. 29.0N 80.0W
E. 24/1700Z TO 2200Z E. 25/1100Z TO 1830Z
F. SFC TO 10000 FT F. SFC TO 10000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUED 6 HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.

[StJoe]

This invest is moving to fast for Jult 1st...Thinking Monday-Tuesday next week...

[SkeetoBite]

Shuttle launch currently scheduled for July 1.

[StJoe]

They have scheduled a flight for tomorrow than another for Sunday.

733
NOUS42 KNHC 231430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT FRI 23 JUN 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUN 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-023

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAHAMAS).
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 24/1800Z A. 25/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 24/1545Z C. 25/0915Z
D. 28.0N 77.5W D. 29.0N 80.0W
E. 24/1700Z TO 2200Z E. 25/1100Z TO 1830Z
F. SFC TO 10000 FT F. SFC TO 10000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUED 6 HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.

Looks like they are getting serious now....I bet they are reading the great posts at S2K...Wouldn't doubt it...They don't need models...They have us to let them know whats going on...

[Windtalker1]

First Runs are almost always Off....I see the High building West and this storm moving across central FL into the Gulf.

[StJoe]

Here's a link to a webcam off Abaco Island...


http://www.rockybay.com/webcam/webcam_page.htm

Look at the stats at the bottom of the picture.