91L invest Bahamas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[tgenius]

So what would be probability we get Beryl out of this? 2 Possible Storms in June.... pretty crazy I'd say.

It's interesting to note when you follow the tropics daily, things tend to go by REAL slow compared to me not watching so much last year and it flying by

[skysummit]

Here's what I think this morning:

[wxman57]

Here's yet another model plot. I have the BAMS on here, too. Of course, you can always ignore the LBAR and AH98E (climo) model. All BAM models say the same - wnw-nw toward Jacksonville. Dynamic models in good agreement as well on the movement of the upper low. Of course, I always advise being wary of the BAM models north of 20N latitude as they're designed for low-latitude systems where the steering currents aren't changing.

Wind shear still looks very strong over it (watch how you interpret those wind shear maps - look at a good, long WV loop). This is not so much a tropical system as a hybrid low.

I think there's a good chance it'll be upgraded to a TD tomorrow due to its proximity to land, but conditions aloft don't favor much intensification before it moves inland.

[Trader Ron]

Two of those models are worthless. I'll wait for the GFDL.

[drezee]

3.5mb 24 hour pressure falls off FL coast

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=M&tz=STN

[wxman57]

Here's what I think this morning:

Over the years, I've learned that the exposed low-level swirls rotating around a larger area of low pressure are NOT what we should focus on for development. You are correct, we need to watch where the thunderstorms are. A tropical system will tend to form beneath the thunderstorms, not from a naked swirl.

[wxman57]

Two of those models are worthless. I'll wait for the GFDL.

Besides the LBAR, which I agree is worthless, what other model on my plot is worthless? The CARQ is not a model, by the way, it's the historical track of the disturbance.

[Stormcenter]

As long as it stays away from the GOM I'm a happy camper.

[Thunder44]

First T numbers from Dvorak:

23/1215 UTC 26.7N 73.6W T1.0/1.0

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[jdray]

Big Bend of Florida and NE Florida were supposed to see little activity.

So far Alberto hits the Big Bend area, then the second "potential" storm might hit NE Fla/Ga coastline.

There goes most mets outlooks.

[bucman1]

Kinda hard to forecast a track when we don't know where the center of circulation is !

[caneman]

Kinda hard to forecast a track when we don't know where the center of circulation is !

And I would add to wait for the new GFS, UKMET, CMC and NOGAPS

[Stratusxpeye]

Kinda hard to forecast a track when we don't know where the center of circulation is !

Great post I was just getting ready to post that. Before we had a handle on Alberto's center it was a Texas storm for sure some even though Mexico. We need to have it establish its exact llc center for models to initiate and then the plots will be a little better right now id say its almost all useless.

[tgenius]

Big Bend of Florida and NE Florida were supposed to see little activity.

So far Alberto hits the Big Bend area, then the second "potential" storm might hit NE Fla/Ga coastline.

There goes most mets outlooks.

At Least Alberto didn't cause havok to FL in the $$ department.

[Trader Ron]

Two of those models are worthless. I'll wait for the GFDL.

Besides the LBAR, which I agree is worthless, what other model on my plot is worthless? The CARQ is not a model, by the way, it's the historical track of the disturbance.

I concur with you that the LBAR and NHCA98E are worthless. I was typing the post just before you posted. It wasn't directed at you.

[skysummit]

Remember though, the 98E is not actually a model. It's a statistical model.

[Stormcenter]

Guess where the center is forming?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[skysummit]

Anyone see that the SHIPS takes it up to 62kts in 108 hours...

[HurricaneGirl]

Here's yet another model plot. I have the BAMS on here, too. Of course, you can always ignore the LBAR and AH98E (climo) model. All BAM models say the same - wnw-nw toward Jacksonville. Dynamic models in good agreement as well on the movement of the upper low. Of course, I always advise being wary of the BAM models north of 20N latitude as they're designed for low-latitude systems where the steering currents aren't changing.

Wind shear still looks very strong over it (watch how you interpret those wind shear maps - look at a good, long WV loop). This is not so much a tropical system as a hybrid low.

I think there's a good chance it'll be upgraded to a TD tomorrow due to its proximity to land, but conditions aloft don't favor much intensification before it moves inland.

Holy Crap!

[curtadams]

Here's what I think this morning:

If you look at the overall low level circulation that's obviously the master center of the invest. All the low clouds are revolving around it, including the naked swirls. Plus convection is firing up there at a time of day it normally wanes. Definitely the place to look.