91L invest Bahamas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

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drezee
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#21 Postby drezee » Fri Jun 23, 2006 8:01 am

Let me try and express some thoughts I have and why.

1. This system is about to explode with convection on the east side.

Why: There is another tropical wave about to pile in a ton of heat into this system. You can see the sharp curvature in the visible loops near 23N and 66W. This should really increase the inflow and cause this system to pop. I am thinking it will be a TS by midnight tomorrow. If it isn't I'll eat my crow...

Image

2. Convection is likely to fire along the east coast of FL today with the NW most eddy.

Why: The eddy will increase the convergence in the area and the interaction with land should pile up the air just enough to act as a trigger.


Oh yeah...I almost forgot

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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Last edited by drezee on Fri Jun 23, 2006 8:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#22 Postby skysummit » Fri Jun 23, 2006 8:03 am

Wow drezee....that's a heck of a call! Part of me would like to agree with you though. Let the games begin!
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#23 Postby SkeetoBite » Fri Jun 23, 2006 8:11 am

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#24 Postby rockyman » Fri Jun 23, 2006 8:12 am

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#25 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Jun 23, 2006 8:14 am

I don't think this will be a TS by tonight. It's only slowly getting better organized and there's no closed surface circulation yet.
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#26 Postby angelwing » Fri Jun 23, 2006 8:14 am

I am not -removed- here, but if that one plot through Philly holds out, we do need the rain, but that's about it, forget everything else.
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#27 Postby drezee » Fri Jun 23, 2006 8:16 am

Thunder44 wrote:I don't think this will be a TS by tonight. It's only slowly getting better organized and there's no closed surface circulation yet.


Good, then we agree… Let me make sure I am clear…I mean… 1 minute after 1159EST on January 24th.
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#28 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 23, 2006 8:16 am

rockyman wrote:Image


rockyman that graphic was for the old 91L invest test in april. :)
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#29 Postby mvtrucking » Fri Jun 23, 2006 8:18 am

wxman57 wrote:
Stratusxpeye wrote:Watch the board roll now! I bet this was due to those naked swirl first visibles of the day this morning around 7:30 or so eastern time. You can see a An LLC there very exposed and naked but it's there. here we go again let's see if Beryl can come visit.


See my post above. Actually, there are 3 naked swirls, possilby another hidden by storms east of the upper low.


I always seek your posts out Wxman57. Great job! This invest probably
messes you up for the weekend, or only if it becomes a TD? (If that's the case, I will be pulling for it to disapate. Good luck )
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#30 Postby mtm4319 » Fri Jun 23, 2006 8:19 am

cycloneye wrote:
rockyman wrote:http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_91.gif


rockyman that graphic was for the old 91L invest test in april. :)


What I'm seeing is the new 91L... you may have to refresh the page to get the old one out of your cache.
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#31 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Jun 23, 2006 8:20 am

drezee wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:I don't think this will be a TS by tonight. It's only slowly getting better organized and there's no closed surface circulation yet.


Good, then we agree… Let me make sure I am clear…I mean… 1 minute after 1159EST on January 24th.


I know what you mean. And I don't agree with you. Maybe a TD.
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#32 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 23, 2006 8:22 am

mtm4319 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
rockyman wrote:http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_91.gif


rockyman that graphic was for the old 91L invest test in april. :)


What I'm seeing is the new 91L... you may have to refresh the page to get the old one out of your cache.


Yes,there it is now. :)
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#33 Postby Trader Ron » Fri Jun 23, 2006 8:22 am

I was just going to ask why the TWO has this Blob going over Florida, and the models showing something all together different.

:D
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#34 Postby drezee » Fri Jun 23, 2006 8:23 am

Thunder44 wrote:
drezee wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:I don't think this will be a TS by tonight. It's only slowly getting better organized and there's no closed surface circulation yet.


Good, then we agree… Let me make sure I am clear…I mean… 1 minute after 1159EST on January 24th.


I know what you mean. And I don't agree with you. Maybe a TD.
..

I did not say by tonight. I said by tomorrow night...
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CHRISTY

#35 Postby CHRISTY » Fri Jun 23, 2006 8:23 am

Guys we cant even be sure or were this thing is going...... question which swirl is the one that the NHC is tracking,cause there are 3 of them!
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#36 Postby mtm4319 » Fri Jun 23, 2006 8:25 am

Image
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#37 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Jun 23, 2006 8:25 am

drezee wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:
drezee wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:I don't think this will be a TS by tonight. It's only slowly getting better organized and there's no closed surface circulation yet.


Good, then we agree… Let me make sure I am clear…I mean… 1 minute after 1159EST on January 24th.


I know what you mean. And I don't agree with you. Maybe a TD.
..

I did not say by tonight. I said by tomorrow night...


Oh, you mean 12am on June 25. Ok than we do agree. :wink:
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#38 Postby mtm4319 » Fri Jun 23, 2006 8:26 am

Somehow I doubt this will take 6 months to develop. :P

Edit: never mind
Last edited by mtm4319 on Fri Jun 23, 2006 8:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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CHRISTY

#39 Postby CHRISTY » Fri Jun 23, 2006 8:28 am

Those tracks are no good right now!we dont even know which vortex is going is going to take over.iam seeing 3
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drezee
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#40 Postby drezee » Fri Jun 23, 2006 8:33 am

Thunder44 wrote:
drezee wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:
drezee wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:I don't think this will be a TS by tonight. It's only slowly getting better organized and there's no closed surface circulation yet.


Good, then we agree… Let me make sure I am clear…I mean… 1 minute after 1159EST on January 24th.


I know what you mean. And I don't agree with you. Maybe a TD.
..

I did not say by tonight. I said by tomorrow night...


Oh, you mean 12am on June 25. Ok than we do agree. :wink:


I said it in a weird way..but yes 1 minute after 1159am on June 24 is 12am on June 25th
:D
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