BAHAMA Disturbance Thread #2

[CHRISTY]

Quickscathttp://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBds19.png

[CHRISTY]

FLOATER 1 IS NOW ON THE SYSTEM....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah I missed the first one but hopefully I'm fixed to go if this forms.

[Coredesat]

Another convective blowup, let's see if this one persists. If it does, it probably has a fair chance of developing as long as the shear remains somewhat low.

[Thunder44]

A couple of ship reports to the south and SW of this blow up of convection at 6z reported some SSW winds.

SHIP 06 23.4 -70.4 190 11.7 29.96
SHIP 06 23.1 -72.6 200 7.0

Also to the west of this blob a NNE wind was reported:

SHIP 06 26.8 -74.8 20 15.0 29.96

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think its looking very very possible. Lets see if it can start to develop a LLC.

[Cookiely]

Hello everyone. As some of you know my brother in law and niece are very ill with cancer(both diagnosed this month). I am in Birmingham to visit and am concerned that my mother is in Tampa alone. Can I assume this system is not much of a threat to the Tampa area. I'm on limited computer time and can not read all the threads. I will check in later for an answer. We are supposed to return to Tampa on Sunday. Can you tell me what the weather will be like from Birmingham to Tampa? Continue to ask for your prayers. My nineteen year old niece is fighting for her life. I know this is a little off topic but she got a MRSA while in the hospital last week. Its called the Superbug which is resistant to almost all antibiotics so if any of your loved ones go to the hospital (this disease is mostly confined to hospitals) please watch that the staff are conscientious of sterile technique. This is a life or death situation.
God Bless and Take Care
Cookiely

[TampaFl]

Hello everyone. As some of you know my brother in law and niece are very ill with cancer(both diagnosed this month). I am in Birmingham to visit and am concerned that my mother is in Tampa alone. Can I assume this system is not much of a threat to the Tampa area. I'm on limited computer time and can not read all the threads. I will check in later for an answer. We are supposed to return to Tampa on Sunday. Can you tell me what the weather will be like from Birmingham to Tampa? Continue to ask for your prayers. My nineteen year old niece is fighting for her life. I know this is a little off topic but she got a MRSA while in the hospital last week. Its called the Superbug which is resistant to almost all antibiotics so if any of your loved ones go to the hospital (this disease is mostly confined to hospitals) please watch that the staff are conscientious of sterile technique. This is a life or death situation.
God Bless and Take Care
Cookiely

Cookiely, my thoughts and prayers are with you and your family at this time. To answer your question, it looks to be mostly a rain event at this time. NWS Tampa has 50% rain for Sunday through Monday here. Take care and have a safe trip back.

Robert

[caneman]

Hello everyone. As some of you know my brother in law and niece are very ill with cancer(both diagnosed this month). I am in Birmingham to visit and am concerned that my mother is in Tampa alone. Can I assume this system is not much of a threat to the Tampa area. I'm on limited computer time and can not read all the threads. I will check in later for an answer. We are supposed to return to Tampa on Sunday. Can you tell me what the weather will be like from Birmingham to Tampa? Continue to ask for your prayers. My nineteen year old niece is fighting for her life. I know this is a little off topic but she got a MRSA while in the hospital last week. Its called the Superbug which is resistant to almost all antibiotics so if any of your loved ones go to the hospital (this disease is mostly confined to hospitals) please watch that the staff are conscientious of sterile technique. This is a life or death situation.
God Bless and Take Care
Cookiely

My prayers are with you. You've got your hands full. Remember if God brings you to it, he will bring you thru it. We don't always know the reasons. I don't think we're supose to get any weather til Monday if at all. Doesn't look like it will be able to get too strong and of course traversing the state should help too. More of a rainmaker than anything but check back daily. God Bless.

[no advance]

I sure dont see any west movement. It is in the same spot it was three days ago.

[Thunder44]

485
ABNT20 KNHC 230859
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE
CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI

[no advance]

Looking at the floater looks like a naked swirl just east of Hope Town in the Abacos Seems like it is drifting WSW.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on Ir cloud movement I would watch for a center forming near 26 north/71.5 west. As you can see the northern side has strong eastly winds with a curving flow in the clouds. That naked low level spin to the southwest doe's not have much chance.

[CHRISTY]

IR LOOP....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

[Thunder44]

I've noticed several personal weather stations over the NE Bahamas are reporting pressures down to 1013mb this morning and winds from the NNW. Also a ship at 8z reported a SSE wind with a pressure of about 1012mb as well just south of this area:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/cgi-b ... ry=bahamas

SHIP 08 23.8 -72.6 160 8.0 9.9 - - 29.91

This is where I think the center of the broad area of low pressure is located this morning:

http://i3.tinypic.com/15dxr2d.jpg

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on quickscat a LLC is most likely near 26/74. A LLC is at 26/76 which is clearly defined but with no convection. This system seems to have many LLC going around a larger scale broad low.

[ronjon]

Looks like the LLC is exposed near 26N-76W and is drifting S-SW. Another rotation immediately to its NE is spinning with convection and this may be a MLC. It appears that the MLC may try and get aligned with the LLC. If this happens, perhaps some more organization later today, Latest 06Z GFS moves the weak low over S FL and then slides it north along the FL peninsula west coast. This solution had some support from the Euro yesterday.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[Thunder44]

I believe that the main surface center is the one at 24N 74W and that there several small LLC's rotating around out it. Overall the entire circulation looks broad and elongated from SE to NW based on obs around the area. There is very little thunderstorm activity associated with it now. So I don't expect development very soon.

[rockyman]

First visibles rolling in...LLC?

[Windtalker1]

First visibles rolling in...LLC?

I think so