BAHAMA Disturbance Thread #2

[skysummit]

Getting a little breezy down there....00z winds:

[SouthFloridawx]

Yep starting to get a little breezy here.

[CHRISTY]

Getting a little breezy down there....00z winds:

i think those winds are ways of shore?iam not really feelin anything here,iam in my cousin's house in miami.

[Stratusxpeye]

Low pressure is forming east of the Bahamas. Right now it is pretty weak and lacks thunderstorms around it, but it is drifting off toward the west and could move toward the Florida/Georgia coast this weekend. Strong shearing winds should prevent thunderstorms from developing to close through early Friday. After that winds should lighten and could allow for some strengthening before it reaches the coast. Elsewhere, the Atlantic Basin is quiet.

TWC Has changed there minds on this system from the earlier discussion I'm praying for some good rain.

[Vortex]

Definetely a breezy NE flow this evening. Very unusual in late Jube here along the SE coast of Florida unless something tropical is brewing offshore. Time wil tell..

[Vortex]

UKMET like several other models take low pressure across S.FL and into the Gulf in about 3 days. Here's the UKMET at H-72 just entering SE Gulf.


http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/UKMET/u ... rec_72.gif

[MGC]

I'm working OT right now, I've had three complete weekends the past two months. Sometimes ya just gotta do what ya gotta do. The few days off I've had are involved in hurricane repairs since Katrina. Tropical cyclones don't give a rats if it the weekend or not. Camille hit on Sunday. Save your crying for another time, now get to work......MGC

[skysummit]

I'm working OT right now, I've had three complete weekends the past two months. Sometimes ya just gotta do what ya gotta do. The few days off I've had are involved in hurricane repairs since Katrina. Tropical cyclones don't give a rats if it the weekend or not. Camille hit on Sunday. Save your crying for another time, now get to work......MGC

YEA!!!! Go get 'em MGC!!!!

[george_r_1961]

Its broad and diffuse for sure but nonetheless there is a surface low. As shear abates there is some chance of a tropical depression forming. Two things its got going against it: The WV is showing dry air to its west..and as this system approaches land yet more dry air could be pulled into it due to the broad circulation.

Just my 1 cent (sorry dont have that other penny right now)

[wxman57]

No offense to the pro mets, I always look for your responses first when I am browsing the forms, however, it has been reiterated time and time again in the past posts about "having to work the weekend when you were scheduled off," believe me when I say that I sympathize w/ that, BUT isn't that part of the job that you were trained and should be prepared for at this time of year??

Yep, that's true. And I don't mind working long hours (and weekends) when there's a significant threat to our clients. But I don't have to like working weekends for what's most likely to be a weak, sheared system that'll probably do more good than harm if it moves into the dry areas of Florida. And I don't necessarily like working every weekend along with my 10-12 hour days M-F. Besides, it's only June, can't they wait for August to develop?

One other factor to consider is that people natually want to take vacations in June/July (we don't allow August/September vacations). A quiet early season lets some of the forecasters have some time off with their whole families before the season really heats up. I wonder if the NHC allows any vacations from June-November? Derek?

Personally, I've been going nonstop since early March, trying to get ready for the season. We still have about 2-3 weeks of work to complete. Had a major setback in late March as I was involved in a head-on collision on the freeway on the way to the airport (was flying to Orlando to speak at the DRJ Springworld 2006 convention). Wasn't my fault, and no one else got hurt. SOmeone lost control in the lane next to me, came into my lane and was facing me head-on. I swerved, clipped the guy, spun, and ended up facing the wrong way in the "fast" lane. Got hit 3 times and smashed into the concrete median. No broken bones but a pretty good hit to my head made me lose about 18 hours of memory of that day. I still can't remember from Sunday night to noon Monday of March 27th. Got out of the hospital after 3 days and was back on the speaking circuit 5 days later. I've had about 2 dozen presentations in different cities over the past 2 months, some lasting 4 hours. It's been a slow recovery. My ribs still hurt from the seatbelt, but better than going through the windshield. So, I'd like to have some time off for a change, at least a slow June/July.

[wxman57]

I'm working OT right now, I've had three complete weekends the past two months. Sometimes ya just gotta do what ya gotta do. The few days off I've had are involved in hurricane repairs since Katrina. Tropical cyclones don't give a rats if it the weekend or not. Camille hit on Sunday. Save your crying for another time, now get to work......MGC

You get paid OT? I get comp days that I can never use, can't even use up my vacation days.

[rainstorm]

MGC is the greatest

[whereverwx]

Yep, it doesn't look very healthy on the water vapor. (personally; I don't think this will develop, but I'm always wrong, so you never know. )

[CHRISTY]

Its broad and diffuse for sure but nonetheless there is a surface low. As shear abates there is some chance of a tropical depression forming. Two things its got going against it: The WV is showing dry air to its west..and as this system approaches land yet more dry air could be pulled into it due to the broad circulation.

Just my 1 cent (sorry dont have that other penny right now)

yep...i was looking at that earlier!here's a pic!

[wxman57]

Its broad and diffuse for sure but nonetheless there is a surface low. As shear abates there is some chance of a tropical depression forming. Two things its got going against it: The WV is showing dry air to its west..and as this system approaches land yet more dry air could be pulled into it due to the broad circulation.

Just my 1 cent (sorry dont have that other penny right now)

Back on topic -- I'm wondering what you're seeing to indicate a broad surface circulation, as the surface observations I'm looking at indicate a trof axis but no closed low yet at the surface. Just plotted all the 00Z ship and land stations and see NE winds toward the FL coast and southerly winds east of the Bahamas. No reports of any westerly winds over the Bamahas or north of there.

I can see a circulation aloft in satellite loops, though. WV loops do show a lot of shear and a lot of dry air moving across the area, though. Not too conducive to development.

[cheezyWXguy]

it looks like the area where the deep convection is spinning...could that become to dominant center?

[curtadams]

Yep, it doesn't look very healthy on the water vapor. (personally; I don't think this will develop, but I'm always wrong, so you never know. )

Calamity, if you're always wrong, would you mind forecasting a destructive major hurricane landfall on the continental US?

[CHRISTY]

It looks like a microwave over florida.its going to run into a wall of dry air.actually i think it may already have.

[george_r_1961]

Its broad and diffuse for sure but nonetheless there is a surface low. As shear abates there is some chance of a tropical depression forming. Two things its got going against it: The WV is showing dry air to its west..and as this system approaches land yet more dry air could be pulled into it due to the broad circulation.

Just my 1 cent (sorry dont have that other penny right now)

Back on topic -- I'm wondering what you're seeing to indicate a broad surface circulation, as the surface observations I'm looking at indicate a trof axis but no closed low yet at the surface. I can see a circulation aloft in satellite loops, though. WV loops do show a lot of shear and a lot of dry air moving across the area, though. Not too conducive to development.

Yea no westerly winds. Thanks for pointing that out. Could that be due to lack of data? Even NHC indicated that a broad surface low "appears" to be forming. Not trying to contradict you just wondering,

[skysummit]

Its broad and diffuse for sure but nonetheless there is a surface low. As shear abates there is some chance of a tropical depression forming. Two things its got going against it: The WV is showing dry air to its west..and as this system approaches land yet more dry air could be pulled into it due to the broad circulation.

Just my 1 cent (sorry dont have that other penny right now)

Back on topic -- I'm wondering what you're seeing to indicate a broad surface circulation, as the surface observations I'm looking at indicate a trof axis but no closed low yet at the surface. I can see a circulation aloft in satellite loops, though. WV loops do show a lot of shear and a lot of dry air moving across the area, though. Not too conducive to development.

Yea no westerly winds. Thanks for pointing that out. Could that be due to lack of data? Even NHC indicated that a broad surface low "appears" to be forming. Not trying to contradict you just wondering,

Here you can see a mid to low level westerly wind. Maybe that's what they're talking about.