Convection Near Bahamas

[cycloneye]

Luis thats right off the coast of West Palm are you sure about the Longitude 79W theirs no convection out their until 73W.

Remember that the position they have at the plan of the day today can change in the next plan of the day tommorow.

[jdray]

Its close enough to warrant a check at least.
This thing could spin up over the Gulf Stream.

Tammy last year went from a blob to TS Status and landfall within 2 days near this same area.

*not saying this will happen, but this close to the coast, you gotta make sure at least.

[cycloneye]

With recon planned, I expect an Invest to pop up on NRL very soon....the upcoming TWO will be important

91L may pop up this afternoon or tonight.

[boca]

When are the latest models due out?

[cmdebbie]

"But history shows that in june that a handful of storms have developed in that general area. Something to watch."

According to Tom Terry (Orlando Met), last night he stated that only 2 storms have formed in this area, at this time of year, since 1886. Interesting. However, he did say that this area needs to be watched.

[SouthFloridawx]

When are the latest models due out?

12Z models will be out after 11:30 am and after 12noon.

[SouthFloridawx]

Still being sheared eventhough the shear is weakening in the north and northeastern bahamas.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[boca]

After a couple of days theirs finally something to look at.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

[skysummit]

RAMSDIS has a floater over it.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

On the map on the right, click the first Visible floater loop. It's a floater over the entire area of interest.

[Patrick99]

Doesn't look like much...they are going to send a plane out for that?

[drezee]

Believe it ot not, but it is better developed at the surface than yesterday. The convection of the West side is more associated with the interaction with an upper feature. It is near 27N and 73.5W.

How so? Surface pressures are still very high in the area this morning. Between 1015mb to 1020mb.

I see a broad low-level circulation near 31N 72W moving west or WNW on first visble images. Does anybody else see this?

I take it that you agree with me now...

Sort of. You see the LLC where I see it?

I doo see what you are talking about, but I believe the better ultimate system will come fromthe southern one.

[Thunder44]

Believe it ot not, but it is better developed at the surface than yesterday. The convection of the West side is more associated with the interaction with an upper feature. It is near 27N and 73.5W.

How so? Surface pressures are still very high in the area this morning. Between 1015mb to 1020mb.

I see a broad low-level circulation near 31N 72W moving west or WNW on first visble images. Does anybody else see this?

I take it that you agree with me now...

Sort of. You see the LLC where I see it?

I doo see what you are talking about, but I believe the better ultimate system will come fromthe southern one.

I concur as well.

[chadtm80]

Doesn't look like much...they are going to send a plane out for that?

Probably not. They just have it planned. They have to be ready just in case. It is just a plan

[Stratusxpeye]

I think it has a chance here at developing. Could see invest 91l later today and see if recon doesn't cancel the flight out there. I think Beryl should come and be a TS Like Alberto but stall over west central Florida and dump us 15 inches of rain that we need. What are your opinions on strength of the system if it was to develop

[no advance]

Maybe even more south. Inverted trough moving WNW. Thanks to Decrecho and all the pros .

[cycloneye]

Doesn't look like much...they are going to send a plane out for that?

Probably not. They just have it planned. They have to be ready just in case. It is just a plan

That's right chad.They say possible but they also can cancel it.

[cycloneye]

404
ABNT20 KNHC 221518
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS
AND BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEMS HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[tailgater]

I think it has a chance here at developing. Could see invest 91l later today and see if recon doesn't cancel the flight out there. I think Beryl should come and be a TS Like Alberto but stall over west central Florida and dump us 15 inches of rain that we need. What are your opinions on strength of the system if it was to develop

Careful what you wish for, ask Houston what 15 inches of rain can do.
On a side note Recon probably just playing it safe at this point with some of the models predicting some sort of development, and area near SE fla. has been known to lite up some of the weak looking systems in the Bahamas

[CHRISTY]

I think there are maybe 1 or 2 places the may find a LLC.....of course if there is any there.but no doupt there is a hint of a circulation at the mid levels of the atmosphere in this morning's visible satellite imagery,but no obvious circulation at the surface.and i may note there is still alot of wind shear for the disturbance to overcome,so lets what happens. chrisy

here is a pic of maybe an idea were a LLC may form.



Here is a IR loop...

[Rainband]

I see convection firing on the north and south of this area. The circulation I see is in the North half but it's to the west side of the blob, and seems void of convection. I guess if the shear lets up things may change. I think the reason why they are considering sending a aircraft out is it's proximity to land.