Convection Near Bahamas

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Thunder44
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#341 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Jun 22, 2006 8:33 am

drezee wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:
drezee wrote:Believe it ot not, but it is better developed at the surface than yesterday. The convection of the West side is more associated with the interaction with an upper feature. It is near 27N and 73.5W.


How so? Surface pressures are still very high in the area this morning. Between 1015mb to 1020mb.


Thunder44 wrote:I see a broad low-level circulation near 31N 72W moving west or WNW on first visble images. Does anybody else see this?


I take it that you agree with me now...


Sort of. You see the LLC where I see it?
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#342 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Jun 22, 2006 8:38 am

boca wrote:I have no idea which way this system will go but I see some twisting around 72 and 27.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html


I believe that is a MLC.
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#343 Postby rockyman » Thu Jun 22, 2006 8:38 am

Strongest low-level vorticity is up near 30N:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html

The 500mb vorticity map shows that MLC near 27/74:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor2.html
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#344 Postby boca » Thu Jun 22, 2006 8:41 am

Thunder is the one you pointed out up by 30 and 72?
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#345 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Jun 22, 2006 8:43 am

boca wrote:Thunder is the one you pointed out up by 30 and 72?


Yeah, it just about around there now.
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#346 Postby boca » Thu Jun 22, 2006 8:48 am

Thunder44 I just read the disscusions for your neck of the woods 4" plus rainfall amounts this weekend. Send it to Florida.
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#347 Postby skysummit » Thu Jun 22, 2006 8:48 am

Thunder44 wrote:
boca wrote:Thunder is the one you pointed out up by 30 and 72?


Yeah, it just about around there now.


Oh, you all are talking about Player #2...

Image
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#348 Postby rockyman » Thu Jun 22, 2006 8:49 am

Based on the vorticity maps, Player 1 would be the "LLC" and Player 2 would be the "MLC" (see post above)

This map, however, shows a possible LLC forming near Player 2 (near 27N):

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8v4km.html
Last edited by rockyman on Thu Jun 22, 2006 8:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#349 Postby boca » Thu Jun 22, 2006 8:50 am

Which player gonna win the battle of the low level spin the area around 27N or 30 N.
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#350 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 22, 2006 8:54 am

Getting interesting. At least today we have something to look at the surface.
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#351 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Jun 22, 2006 8:55 am

skysummit wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:
boca wrote:Thunder is the one you pointed out up by 30 and 72?


Yeah, it just about around there now.


Oh, you all are talking about Player #2...

Image


I think it is just ONE large disorganized system, that needs to get itself much better organized before it even has decent chance of becoming a TD. The LLC is far detached from the MLC and is devoid of any convection.
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#352 Postby boca » Thu Jun 22, 2006 8:57 am

When I looked at the Visible to me it looked like the spin by 30N was more dominant and drifting WNW.
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#353 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 22, 2006 9:00 am

NOUS42 KNHC 221330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT THU 22 JUN 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JUN 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-022

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST AT 24/1800Z NEAR 27.5N 79.0W

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#354 Postby rockyman » Thu Jun 22, 2006 9:02 am

Based on the recon plan, the system is expected to move toward Florida?
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#355 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 22, 2006 9:02 am

:uarrow: INTERESTING. BEING PRECAUTIONS!!! :uarrow:
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#356 Postby skysummit » Thu Jun 22, 2006 9:03 am

Wha?????? They must just be wanting to burn off some fuel!
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#357 Postby rockyman » Thu Jun 22, 2006 9:03 am

With recon planned, I expect an Invest to pop up on NRL very soon....the upcoming TWO will be important
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#358 Postby boca » Thu Jun 22, 2006 9:06 am

Luis thats right off the coast of West Palm are you sure about the Longitude 79W theirs no convection out their until 73W.
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#359 Postby rockyman » Thu Jun 22, 2006 9:06 am

After studying the visible loops, my guess is that the northern spin is more like an eddy that is going to slide southwest around the larger center forming around 27.5/74...there's really no other reason for the northern spin to be moving southwest.
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#360 Postby rockyman » Thu Jun 22, 2006 9:07 am

Boca...that's the plan for 2 days from now...which means to me that NHC expects the storm to move west toward Florida by Day 2
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