Convection Near Bahamas

[drezee]

Believe it ot not, but it is better developed at the surface than yesterday. The convection of the West side is more associated with the interaction with an upper feature. It is near 27N and 73.5W.

[O Town]

Looks like it is going to do a big loop. Go over Hispaniola and then get into the Caribbean.

[Nimbus]

Will this thing ever be classified a TD?
Can 17 pages of the Hurricane Hollow experts intuition be wrong?

The sea surface temperatures north of 25N are still a little cool and the forecast movement takes it into a sheared environment. Only chance this area has of ever being classified is if it flares up when it passes over the gulf stream or if it loses latitude somehow.

[Thunder44]

Believe it ot not, but it is better developed at the surface than yesterday. The convection of the West side is more associated with the interaction with an upper feature. It is near 27N and 73.5W.

How so? Surface pressures are still very high in the area this morning. Between 1015mb to 1020mb.

[greels]

Mother Nature awoke us this morning at 4:30AM with heavy rains, high winds, lots of thunder & lightning........abated somewhat at the moment, but very dark and heavy clouds prevail.

[Thunder44]

Looks like it is going to do a big loop. Go over Hispaniola and then get into the Caribbean.

What system are you talking about here?

[tailgater]

Will this thing ever be classified a TD?
Can 17 pages of the Hurricane Hollow experts intuition be wrong?
Where?

[CHRISTY]

Well just got up and this thing looks like its chances of becomeing atleast a TD maybe slipping away it really doesnt look good very disorganized.I think TD 2 will have to wait.Things could change of course but iam not counting on it.

[Thunder44]

I see a broad low-level circulation near 31N 72W moving west or WNW on first visble images. Does anybody else see this?

[skysummit]

I also see a very broad LLC. I have to agree with drezee, even though the surface pressures are still high, the low level feature does look better than it did yesterday IMO. I believe we may see a nice little blob blow up later today over this broad circulation.

12z surface plots:



1215z visible image:

[HURAKAN]

The NHC has a low pressure system attached to the trough by 48 hours north of the Bahamas.

[skysummit]

Hmm....after looking more closely at the latest visible loops, I'm going to have to go against what I just said. I do not see any circulation now. Plus, I see lots of outflow boundaries exiting the area of interest.

[terstorm1012]

From State College NWS:

LASTLY ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT IN THE GFS AND NAM OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT GETS DRAGGED TO
FLORIDA BY SATURDAY. GUIDANCE HINTS THAT THE MOISTURE COULD BE
FUNNELED NORTHWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD PLACING US UNDER A
PROLONGED THREAT FROM TROPICAL DOWNPOURS. SO FAR NHC DOESN`T
EXPECT DEVELOPMENT IN THAT AREA. SATELLITE IMAGES THIS EVENING DO
SHOW SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO STAY CLUSTERED OVER THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS...BUT THE MODELS SEEM TO WANT TO INITIALIZE A COLD CORE
UPPER LOW THERE WITH STILL PLENTY OF WESTERLY SHEAR TO CONTEND
WITH. STILL THE MOISTURE COULD GET ABSORBED INTO THE DEVELOPING
EASTERN US TROF AND INCREASE OUR RAIN THREAT. LOOKS RATHER HUMID
AND UNSETTLED IN THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY OVER SERN AREAS OF PA.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... n=0&max=51

[N2DaTropics]

One of our local TV Mets here in PC use the Titan forecast model...I don't anything about the Titan but it seemed to have a very good handle on Alberto from the beginnig...it consistently forecasted a track into the Big Bend area where Alberto eventually came inland...that being said the Titan is forecasting this disturbance to be a more intense system than the other models and it drags it across S. Fla into the GOM early next week...I'm in no way saying that I agree with that, I just wanted to throw that out there...

[skysummit]

N2....what met said that? I used to live in Dothan and I watched PC news regularly.

[boca]

I have no idea which way this system will go but I see some twisting around 72 and 27.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[Thunder44]

Hmm....after looking more closely at the latest visible loops, I'm going to have to go against what I just said. I do not see any circulation now. Plus, I see lots of outflow boundaries exiting the area of interest.

The circulation I'm looking at is much further north than the area you have there. This is near 31N 72W and it looks like it maybe moving more SW now. This maybe just a MCV spining around out there. Ship reports don't show any west winds south of it. Pressures are high in this area but may be low relative to the surrounding higher pressures outside the area.

[drezee]

Believe it ot not, but it is better developed at the surface than yesterday. The convection of the West side is more associated with the interaction with an upper feature. It is near 27N and 73.5W.

How so? Surface pressures are still very high in the area this morning. Between 1015mb to 1020mb.

I see a broad low-level circulation near 31N 72W moving west or WNW on first visble images. Does anybody else see this?

I take it that you agree with me now...

[rockyman]

The 6z NAM shows a symmetric warm core system developing within 12 hours and moving toward central Florida:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/nam ... 206/5.html

The 0z CMC shows a borderline-tropical system developing in 90 hours and moving NW toward the Carolinas:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 00/96.html

So...if the storm forms quicker, it'll go west into the Gomex before recurving north...if it forms slower, it'll recurve on the Atlantic side...

[N2DaTropics]

N2....what met said that? I used to live in Dothan and I watched PC news regularly.

Hey Sky, it was Channel 13 Met Justin Keifer, he's fairly new...he showed the animation on the weather this morning and it showed a fairly intense system moving wnw across S. Fla...like I said, I'm not sure I would give it much credence at this point but Titan did a good job with Alberto...