Convection Near Bahamas

[Opal storm]

Steve Lyons said this is going to move east towards north FL and GA and bring some rain and heavy surf but no tropical development.

Looks like Beryl is going to have to wait.

I hope Steve didn't say it was going to move "EAST" Toward Florida. Wait...you are talking about TWC, so I'd believe it.

LOL,no that's my bad

[AJC3]

Regardless of wether the system is going to develop or not, I just got a new boat and am really wanting to take it out this weekend. I live in Palm Beach and does anyone think there will be more rain then the supposed "summer afternoon showers" that we sometimes get this weekend???

it all depends on if and how fast that inverted trough moves toward the FL east coast.

The NWS forecast from Miami has rain chances at 50% for PBC both days, which is a little above normal. Over the ATLC, they're expecting only isolated (20% chance) showers and lightning storms.

However, should the inveretd trough move westward faster and/or become a little stronger, then I suspect the rain chances over/offshore SE Florida go up.

Bottom line - keep abreast of the latest forecasts, chit-chat in the forum, radar, satellite, etc.

[wxwonder12]

Thank You.

[NONAME]

The NHC Notes a Small Circlation whit it so it now has a surface circulation although small and weak.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG 30N70W 22N75W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM
24N-28N BETWEEN 70W-73W. A STRONG 1035 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 42N38W DOMINATING THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 10W-65W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
OVER FLORIDA AND THE W ATLANTIC N OF 27N AND W OF 76W. A TINY
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 27N73W. A RIDGE IS
FURTHER E...N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W. A LARGE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 33N42W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N
BETWEEN 30W-60W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-30W. A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR
32N11W.

[cycloneye]

Water Vapor Image

That is in the upper levels as seen at water vapor.Also the discussion says IN THE UPPER LEVELS...

[Dean4Storms]

Summing this up......

This trough is something to keep an eye on the rest of this week and into the weekend. Still, whether we get a surface low to form or not it will not have time nor environment to become much more than a weak TS at best. I'd give it a 5% chance at ever making it to TS and a 15% chance of making TD status at this time. But like always with tropical weather it bears watching.

[HURAKAN]

It's a gusty night in South Florida with high clouds moving from east to west. Lets keep an eye on this system which seems to be a least a rain threat.

[N2DaTropics]

Summing this up......

This trough is something to keep an eye on the rest of this week and into the weekend. Still, whether we get a surface low to form or not it will not have time nor environment to become much more than a weak TS at best. I'd give it a 5% chance at ever making it to TS and a 15% chance of making TD status at this time. But like always with tropical weather it bears watching.

Hey Dean, as bad as we need rain up here it doesn't look this system is going to help us out any...all indications are that if something does develope that it is going to move towards GA or SC...I'm beginning to think we'll never see any measurable precip again...



LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE SHOWING A POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE OVER THE WEEKEND. OBVIOUSLY THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. HOWEVER...A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND SHEAR
SHOULD KEEP THIS SYSTEM WEAK SHOULD IT DEVELOP. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND MAY STALL OVER
OR JUST NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY EACH DAY WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

[Rainband]

Looks like we may have something fighting down there. Will the shear win?

[boca]

Looks like I'm eating some crow which I like well done with a side of barbeque sauce on the side. The system is stationary which I thought would of continued NE out in the Atlantic. Maybe it will come back and give us much needed rain.

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks like I'm eating some crow which I like well done with a side of barbeque sauce on the side. The system is stationary which I thought would of continued NE out in the Atlantic. Maybe it will come back and give us much needed rain.

Here ya go... pick your sides

[boca]

That's great were did you get that pic from?

[Rainband]

Interesting is all I can say.

[SouthFloridawx]

That's great were did you get that pic from?

Yahoo image search... I searched for serving of crow.. or something to that effect.

[skufful]

Looks like I'm eating some crow which I like well done with a side of barbeque sauce on the side. The system is stationary which I thought would of continued NE out in the Atlantic. Maybe it will come back and give us much needed rain.

Here ya go... pick your sides

Boy, I just hope PETA doesn't get a hold of this!

[SouthFloridawx]

Silly NAM has an area of low pressure moving towards central florida.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[skysummit]

...and it looks like a pretty well established low on that 00z NAM.

[SouthFloridawx]

000
FXUS62 KMFL 220017
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
817 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

.UPDATE...LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WAS NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS
EARLIER THINKING AND THUS HAVE ENDED ALL EVENING POPS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ISOLD SHRA ALONG W CST AS EVIDENT ON RADAR. ALSO LEFT
ISOLD ACTIVITY FOR ATL WATERS AND THEN EXPANDING ONTO E CST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
BUT WITH THE DECOUPLING OF WINDS TAKING PLACE OVER INTERIOR ZONES
AROUND MIDNIGHT. ALL IN ALL NOT MANY CHANGES TO MAKE EXCEPT FOR
THE DECREASING OF POPS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT TROUGH/LOW EAST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS STILL EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE BAHAMAS TO ABOUT 30N 70W. AT UPPER
LEVELS THE TROUGH TILTS BACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE BEST
MOISTURE AND CONVECTION IS STILL ON THE EAST SIDE. WE CAN NOW SEE
A REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE ON THE 12Z NASSAU SOUNDING AS WINDS
FROM H8 UP TO H5 HAVE BACKED TO THE NORTH AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED IN THIS LAYER AS WELL. AT MIAMI ALSO OUR WINDS HAVE BACKED
FROM THE EAST MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL GO WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION THAT DEVELOPS SOME KIND OF SURFACE WAVE/LOW ON THURSDAY
AROUND 28N 72W AND MOVES IT SLOWLY NORTHWEST AROUND 30N 76W BY
SATURDAY. ASSUMING THIS...MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN
ON THE LESS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE SIDE OF THIS FEATURE FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS AND THE NEWEST GFS MOS GUIDANCE AGREES WITH BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND BEYOND...WILL ASSUME THAT BETTER
MOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE WAVE/LOW WILL FINALLY ARRIVE LATE
SATURDAY SO WILL TREND POPS BACK TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR SATURDAY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. WOULD ACTUALLY GO ABOVE CLIMO BUT HAVE TO ALLOW FOR
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE AND ALSO
FARTHER OUT IN TIME. WITH A MORE NORTHEAST FLOW...PATTERN OF DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE MUDDLED AND WILL LIKELY FOLLOW
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE LINES AND THEN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN MORE
HAPHAZARD FASHION. ALSO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE
INTERESTING BECAUSE NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN THE PENINSULA WOULD CAUSE
A GREATER DIURNAL RANGE IN MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE
COASTS.

[Jim Cantore]

I've been picky with my waves lately but I'm intrested in this one because if it's location, do I expect development? no. But history shows that in june that a handful of storms have developed in that general area. Something to watch.

[CHRISTY]

The Ukmet,Nam,gfs and cmc 00z runs are out.It has the system being sheared up....I was looking at the cmc which is being agressive on rainfall,but in general like most the map 40+cm.Iam going to bed i'll be back in the morning to check out whats going on.goodnite chrisy