Convection Near Bahamas

[caneman]

Oh the bashing that goes on. While we're at it why not go ahead and bash the models that are forecasting some development? I think it's fair to say that most people would agree looking at the current pattern that nothing will happen if anything at all for the next couple of days. Come on guys!

[hial2]

I hope it'd landfall in Georgia and move up to Atlanta and dump some rain... we really, really need it here. Particularly so at Lake Lanier as well, as they accidentally dumped 22 billion gallons of water due to a faulty gauge a couple days ago.

OMG, 22 billion gallons, that is some faulty valve! Glad there wasn't a meter attached, that'd be a huuuuuge bill. Nonetheless, that is lots of water!

bob

If you think that's a lot of water,how bout the whole lake that disappeared in, of all places, Lakeland Florida due to a sink hole? Just heard it on Fox News

[jasons2k]

and I am putting my money where my mouth is, going with no development at least through the next couple of days

http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/blo ... ndex.shtml

will have an update later this evening

FWIW Derek, he's basically saying the same thing you are:

"and I would think conditions a couple of days down the road may become at least a little bit more favorable"

NOTICE!!! We don't allow bashing of Accu Weather and it's Staff on S2K. I remind you ALL of this at the request of one of our Administrators

Please read my post. I was not bashing; it was quite the contrary. Thanks.

[Rainband]

and I am putting my money where my mouth is, going with no development at least through the next couple of days

http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/blo ... ndex.shtml

will have an update later this evening

FWIW Derek, he's basically saying the same thing you are:

"and I would think conditions a couple of days down the road may become at least a little bit more favorable"

NOTICE!!! We don't allow bashing of Accu Weather and it's Staff on S2K. I remind you ALL of this at the request of one of our Administrators

Please read my post. I was not bashing; it was quite the contrary. Thanks.

not you.

[tailgater]

I hope it'd landfall in Georgia and move up to Atlanta and dump some rain... we really, really need it here. Particularly so at Lake Lanier as well, as they accidentally dumped 22 billion gallons of water due to a faulty gauge a couple days ago.

OMG, 22 billion gallons, that is some faulty valve! Glad there wasn't a meter attached, that'd be a huuuuuge bill. Nonetheless, that is lots of water!

bob

Man that is alot. It cost's me about $100 to fill my pool at around 10,000 gallons.. 22 Billion.Wow!
Back to topic, alot of mets seem to think nothing will come of this in the short term.

And your bill is $2,200,000 give or take a 0. Please may payment to S2K by 6-22-06 or your membership will be canceled. j/j

[Ivanhater]

Dr. Jeff Masters post...

The tropics remain quiet today, but that may start to change on Thursday. An area of disturbed weather over the Bahama Islands associated with a non-tropical low pressure system has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week. Currently, the disturbance is embedded in an area of strong vertical wind shear of about 15 - 25 knots, but a small area of lower shear is expected to develop over the Bahamas starting on Thursday. This could allow a tropical depression to form off the east coast of Florida by Friday or Saturday. Any system that might develop would likely be steered into northern Florida, Georgia, or South Carolina, as indicated by the GFS, NOGAPS, and Canadian models. Only the Canadian model is indicating that a full-fledged tropical storm may form, and this model has been too aggressive with its tropical storm formation forecasts over the past week. I think it is more likely that wind shear will stay too strong to allow a tropical storm to develop this week. I give it a 20-30% chance that we'll see a tropical depression form out of this system.

http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/2xg4_vi.gif Edited by S2K staff to add link

[Rainband]

Oh the bashing that goes on. While we're at it why not go ahead and bash the models that are forecasting some development? I think it's fair to say that most people would agree looking at the current pattern that nothing will happen if anything at all for the next couple of days. Come on guys!

Trust me, it won't for long

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow Jeff Master agrees with my thinking of a possible tropical system forming out of that system at 26/73. Read my discussion in matts tropical thinking. It could move out with the next trough/jet max moving down the east coast. Which would push it eastward or northeastward. I'm not to sure about its chances about going to hit any one. We will see a ridge is centered around 90 to 95 over the southeast could turn it back.

[Ivanhater]

I can see turning in the lower levels but the high clouds are being sheared off to the north and east, it's a start.

[Thunder44]

This trough digging into the Eastern US is going to try to kill this system tonight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[AJC3]

This trough digging into the Eastern US is going to try to kill this system tonight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

WADR...there is no trough anywhere between H50 and H20 that will be "digging" into the eastern CONUS over the next 48 hours. There currently is an upper trough that extends NE from Florida into the western ATLC for several hundred miles, the northern extent of which is in the process of lifting out.

H50 heights over the eastern CONUS, particularly the SE seaboard and adjacent ATLC will be on the rise over the next day or so as the ridge covering the south central CONUS expands eastward.

[Opal storm]

Steve Lyons said this is going to move east towards north FL and GA and bring some rain and heavy surf but no tropical development.

Looks like Beryl is going to have to wait.

[skysummit]

Steve Lyons said this is going to move east towards north FL and GA and bring some rain and heavy surf but no tropical development.

Looks like Beryl is going to have to wait.

I hope Steve didn't say it was going to move "EAST" Toward Florida. Wait...you are talking about TWC, so I'd believe it.

[SouthFloridawx]

None of the models are indicating development anytime in the next 48 hours. Beyond that well some of the models are indicating an area of low pressure. Whether that is tropical or non-tropical remains to be seen. There is currently 10-25 kts of shear over the lower end of the trough. Until the shear lets up there is not going to be any development. We'll have to wait a couple of days to see what happens.

[SouthFloridawx]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 212123
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI

[Stratusxpeye]

Either way we could def use it here in pasco county. Still in major defecits. I agree with you southfloridawx no devolpment in the next couple days if any at all. If it were to develop I would say around sat-mon time frame would be its chance if its not over land by then. Interesting feature though. IMO Shear is too hight right now.

[no advance]

The last visiables of the system look to me alot more interesting. A small compact system might be forming. Did you all see the latest visiables. No bashing here have a nice evening.

[AJC3]

The last visiables of the system look to me alot more interesting. A small compact system might be forming. Did you all see the latest visiables. No bashing here have a nice evening.

Judging from the movement of the CU elements on the last few vis images, we still have nothing more than a weak SW-NE oriented surface to H85 trough, with two convectively induced mid level vortices (probably around H70 or thereabouts) riding NE-ward over the top of the trough. The two vortices are being peeled off by SW shear from the upper trough that currently extends NE from FL into the western ATLC.

As has been pointed out by Chris more than once, ambient surface pressures continue to remain high around the Bahamas.

There does seem to be a consensus of global model data from 12Z-18Z
(GFS, NAM12, ECM,UKM, CMC, NGP) that an inverted surface trough will be very near the Florida east coast by 12Z Sat.

We could use the rain.

[wxwonder12]

Regardless of wether the system is going to develop or not, I just got a new boat and am really wanting to take it out this weekend. I live in Palm Beach and does anyone think there will be more rain then the supposed "summer afternoon showers" that we sometimes get this weekend???

[wxman57]

Yep, surface pressures remain relatively high in the Bahamas. However, I do see evidence of a weak surface "trof" along 75W as evident in this 00Z plot:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/bahamas.gif

Now the pressures in that trof are around 1017-1018 mb - not very impressive. I do think there is a good chance for a sharper trof and possibly a weak surface low to move ashore into NE FL or GA by Saturday afternoon, less than 72 hours from now. But conditions aloft won't be ideal for development, nor will there be a lot of time for development before it moves inland.

I do agree that there may be a 20-30% chance of this weak low being called a depression before it moves ashore and maybe a 5-10% of it reaching TS strength as it moves ashore. That means that there is a 70-80% chance it'll just be some rain moving ashore. Well, either way, develops or not, it'll just be a rain event.