Convection Near Bahamas
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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MiamiensisWx
So far, my original thoughts on this system, the scenario, and the synoptics appears to be on track. Currently, the system's upper levels are being sheared a bit by the trough passing to the system's north, resulting in the main convective mass moving slowly off to the north and north-northeast; however, the most pronounced turning and most likely area for a center location/reformation is closer to the Bahamas. As the trough pulls away, shearing off some of the main convection, a center reformation closer to the Bahamas appears likely as the trough pulls away, convection slowly begins to consolidate closer to the center, and steering currents weaken as the mid-level ridging builds over the system as the center reforms just to east of the Bahamas. Evidence of the first stages of this process and scenario I think may take place is evident in infra-red imagery. This same mid-level ridging to build over the system is also playing a part in the synoptics that may cause a blowup of thunderstorm activity over the central and east-central United States, where another low pressure system is located. Due to the synoptics, a reformation of the center closer to the Bahamas appears more likely, reducing the chance of a slow movement out to sea or merging with the trough.
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CHRISTY
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Rainband
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Derek Ortt
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CHRISTY
Derek Ortt wrote:the trough continues to dip to the south
the wave won't go out to sea, but the shearing should continue and increase during the next 24 hours.
This is not likely to develop anytime soon
well jeff masters said shear is suppose to slack of tommorow in a small area.
this is from jeff masters blog today....
The tropics remain quiet today, but that may start to change on Thursday. An area of disturbed weather over the Bahama Islands associated with a non-tropical low pressure system has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week. Currently, the disturbance is embedded in an area of strong vertical wind shear of about 15 - 25 knots, but a small area of lower shear is expected to develop over the Bahamas starting on Thursday.
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Stratusxpeye
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Evil Jeremy
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HurricaneHunter914
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http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF
Shear is decreasing to the north of the storm but that doesn't count.
Shear is decreasing to the north of the storm but that doesn't count.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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HurricaneHunter914
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Evil Jeremy wrote:"Invest 91L", coming soon to a city near you!!!
The problem with that is that this isn't Invest 91L yet.
Last edited by HurricaneHunter914 on Wed Jun 21, 2006 1:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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HURAKAN
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Beryl On The Way?
Accuweather.com meteorologists are monitoring a tropical wave which is located northeast of the Bahamas for possible development and movement towards the East coast of the United States later this week. Moisture from this wave can move around the backside of a high pressure area positioned well off the Northeast coast and interact with a frontal boundary which will be stalled over the Northeast. This could result in some potentially heavy rainfall over the weekend for the mid-Atlantic region. It is still too soon to determine whether this wave will develop into a tropical system, but if it does, it will be named Beryl, and it could impact the Southeast.
ACCUWEATHER:
http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-s ... &article=3
Accuweather.com meteorologists are monitoring a tropical wave which is located northeast of the Bahamas for possible development and movement towards the East coast of the United States later this week. Moisture from this wave can move around the backside of a high pressure area positioned well off the Northeast coast and interact with a frontal boundary which will be stalled over the Northeast. This could result in some potentially heavy rainfall over the weekend for the mid-Atlantic region. It is still too soon to determine whether this wave will develop into a tropical system, but if it does, it will be named Beryl, and it could impact the Southeast.
ACCUWEATHER:
http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-s ... &article=3
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HurricaneHunter914
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The problem with that map is that it shows the low near the carolinas when right now its near the bahamas.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Evil Jeremy
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The Hurricaner
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HurricaneHunter914
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Storms are only named invests when they have a good chance at developing. This system according to the NHC doesn't have favorable conditions for development. Though in my opinion the conditions are getting better.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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The Hurricaner
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